Spaceception

Lots of pictures coming out, also an article from Ars ahead of the launch was written https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/01/with-vulcans-liftoff-imminent-united-launch-alliance-flies-into-uncertain-future/

Yes, there's that as well, so if it is possible, it could be used on a larger successor to Nova that has those margins. Like how SpaceX discarded full reusability for Falcon 9 and went up to Starship. The low density being a possible benefit is a good point though!

I figured that much, I didn't have specific heat on the top of my head though. But that aside, could it be effective enough if you used methane instead, or do the drawbacks outweigh any sort of commonality? This kind of graph? table? Hydrogen is ~2.5x better on a MJ/kg basis, so you need more propellent to cool the same amount, but is it significant enough to be a show stopper? Hydrogen needs a higher mass ratio compared to methane for the same delta-v, so I'm wondering if it evens out at all.

I found an interview from last January. From what I could tell, it wasn't linked here. I haven't finished it, and it might not have anything new, especially since it looks like something done for high school students (the interviewer is a physics teacher), but I thought it was interesting to share. Katherine Cruz (the Stoke engineer being interviewed) works on their test site. As a general question that I don't believe I've seen an answer for, have they talked about the decision to use hydrogen for the regenerative heatshield? Is it simply impractical, at least on a vehicle this size, to use methane instead? Additionally, it looks like there's going to be a new interview with Andy Lapsa on NSF, maybe new info (fingers crossed for engine development on the first stage)?

And it was probably on the books for a 20th. So disappointing. I hope they can recover enough pieces to preserve it.

So I'm... curious. What exactly will be the role of having both Antares 330 and MLV? Will Antares 330 be a temporary vehicle until MLV is fully developed, and Firefly will have an exclusive partnership with Northrop to fly Cygnus, and work together on future development? Or are they expecting to coexist? I mean, this doesn't sound exactly like the case of Blue and ULA where Blue just supplies the engines, while ULA develops everything else in a vehicle suited for their purposes. Firefly themselves are building a modified first stage for Antares with the same number of engines intended for their own vehicle, which is also supposed to have ~50% more payload. That would almost be like if Blue built Vulcan's core stage while also working on New Glenn.

Huh.

Confirmation by SpaceX it was all 6 engines

Ship 28 had a static fire about two hours ago. Some tiles on the flaps have been damaged And on top of that, they may squeeze in some cryo proofing for B10

Thanks, I'm on my phone. According to Lapsa, it's not the full length first stage tank.

Instagram has an interior shot which looks like it includes a new second stage. https://www.instagram.com/p/C01geu4LksD/?igshid=MjM0N2Q2NDBjYg==

I think the science news thread probably cover this, but I can see the appeal of a dedicated thread for space related news. The system they talked about looks promising enough, aside from the risk of using fiber optics and having the cable snapping. My question is how much range they can give the bot. It already needs a cable up to 19/25 km long (maybe shorter if probes like Europa Clipper show thinner ice), which if this figure is anything close to what a cryobot would need (https://www.thefoa.org/tech/ref/cable/HighFiberCountCables.html#:~:text=Of course the cable is,1%2F2 pound per foot.), would mass out at 14-19 tonnes on its own. SLS can apparently do 16 tonnes to Jupiter, but even being optimstic only leaves 2 metric tonnes for everything else. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/spacexs-starship-and-nasas-sls-could-supercharge-space-science/ This would be a mission for a refueled Starship. Feel free to correct me, I didn't look too deeply into it, these were some of the first sources I saw. So in lieu of that, I think some sort of wireless system, like acoustic communication should be the focus for an underwater probe, so the lander and cryobot have more to work with.

I wonder how far along engine dev is. I bet we could see a WDR of sorts for the first stage tank sometime in early 2024. Out of all other upcoming rockets, Nova is the one I'm most excited to see debut. Reading the other comments, it might not be the first stage engines, but part of the engine ring for the second stage. I'm willing to bet we'll see components testing in 2024 though, they seem to be moving fast enough.

Oh, I meant something directly applicable to Artemis. Starship working (e.g. RVacs working) is more of a given for general operations.

IFT-3 will be a pretty big test, if they're going to attempt to complete a major milestone during the flight. Does it technically make it the first contracted flight of Starship, at least indirectly?

I think this is the best look we've gotten from New Glenn's first stage unless I'm mistaken (even if it isn't complete). It looks pretty good though, I hope it's flight hardware.

On the subject of upgrades, I think the next focus will be on ease of manufacuring/reusability/lower costs, with marginal increases to performance. But transpirational cooling (or some other alternative/improved shielding) if it's still on the table, will be the last major change before Starship is (mostly) frozen in its design. If it takes a similar amount of time as Falcon 9, the last upgrade should be around 2028/9 (if the next version flies in 2024). Maybe a couple years sooner if they leapfrog themselves/make a harder push.

Next version of Starship is coming up. I wonder if they'll be keeping the version scheme, or moving to blocks like Falcon 9 eventually did. Starship Full Thrust? They could be getting close to the maximum performance from Raptor at this point. Either way, I think we're going to see some big changes. Starship will obviously be using Raptor 3, but we'll also probably see the ship stretch, 3 more RVacs, forward flap redesign, and maybe the stubbier nose. This will likely be the operational version of Starship, and might be used for Artemis.

Soft ocean landing then?

Aiming for big things here. Hoping the launch is a success, but it's crazy that this is going to be Blue Origin's first ever orbital launch. I wonder if they're attempting recovery.

Good to know, hoping that last test goes well. A spring launch would be nice. I'm sure the Astronauts are ready to go up for their mission.

It's a guess of mine, I edited my reply for clarification. This test was great in terms of ascent, and if the pad held up, we're likely going to see them begin the test campaign for the next ship/booster very soon. I don't think it'll be nearly as long from IFT-2 to IFT-3 as IFT-2 was from IFT-1, and SpaceX will probably want to see if they can squeeze out one more launch out of 2023 so they have 5/5 more possible launches in 2024.

My guess: They're going to push hard for IFT-3 in December, with a full test campaign, but likely launch in January/February.

That was incredible to watch, and it looks like they mostly, or even entirely, ironed out the Raptor reliability issues, save for maybe edge cases. I was expecting at least a handful of engines to go out throughout the launch, like one of the Vacuum engines, but they all stayed lit, which is great! With this flight, I feel quite comfortable in saying IFT-3 is going all the way. We got good ascent, hot staging worked - even though it might've been too hard on the booster - and the ship made it to space, either making it to SECO, or just short of it. I think the next test has a good shot at completing the planned trajectory and goals.

Maybe the boil off they mentioned? Might be a pessimistic/worst case for how much they need to top off the depot for Starship HLS. But if it's really that bad, they might need to develop some system like ACES was looking at to fix it, because that's a lot of potentially wasted launches over time. "High teens" does sound weird though, you might expect like an extra trip or two to account for that, but I haven't done the math so my gut reaction could be wrong.