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Everything posted by ProtoJeb21

  1. We’ve got some trouble on the horizon for the May 27th launch date: several models try to quickly spin up a weak tropical cyclone around Florida between Wednesday and Friday, and the European model is forecasting a lot of rain for Florida duding that time frame. The Euro, GFS, and CMC are also on the fence about maybe another tropical cyclone forming more in the open Atlantic at the end of May/start of June, which I heard could impact booster recovery, depending on if the launch is delayed.
  2. India and Bangladesh were thankfully spared from the Cat 4+ landfall some models were showing (mid-level shear disrupted the storm during an eyewall replacement cycle and prevented it from ever recovering), but the biggest issue was not the maximum wind speeds, but rather the storm surge. Amphan had a very large wind field prior to landfall, which had expanded due to the EWRC, and this area is always extremely vulnerable to surge because of the V-shape of the BOB and how low-lying it is. You don’t need an ultra-powerful storm for destructive surge; just look at Ike (Cat 2 landfall) and Sandy (Cat 1, technically post-tropical at landfall). I don’t know how things have folded out near Amphan’s landfall, but it’s not going to be good regardless.
  3. The directly imaged exoplanet Fomalhaut b, later formally named Dagon, was just determined to be the debris cloud from a pair of large icy objects colliding within Fomalhaut’s debris disk: I guess you can say...Dagon is gon.
  4. Humans: hey look, a bright comet is coming! Finally something to make 2020 good! Comet Atlas:
  5. Atlas is starting to develop a tail and looking less like a fuzzy blob: It’s around V=8.2 right now. If I’m correct, that’s one of the brightest comets we’ve had since PANSTARRS.
  6. Day 19 of Coronavacation: Distance learning started yesterday, and I’ve been dumped with tons of Calculus work that I barely have any idea how to do. This seal now supports my dwindling sanity. 


  7. Comet ATLAS may have been brightening faster than expected, but that isn’t a guarantee that it’ll become the next great comet:
  8. After ISON, we all have a good reason to be skeptical about the next bright comet. The media ran with the “comet of the century” stuff for almost a year before perihelion, and look what happened. Predicting comets something like ten months out won’t end well.
  9. The rather newly discovered Comet ATLAS has been brightening faster than initially expected, and now it’s believed it could reach naked eye brightness by the end of May, possibly reaching or even exceeding the brightness of Venus. What’s more exciting is that this could FINALLY be a bright comet visible in the Northern Hemisphere, best observed in latitudes 40-60 N. There’s always a chance it could be a bust like ISON, but since we’re only two months away and not 10+, I think ATLAS has a better shot of living up to the (pretty new) hype. Here’s one of the articles published in the last few days about ATLAS’s peak and how to observe it: UPATED 4/7/20: Atlas has died of corona
  10. Be glad you’re not in the eastern CONUS or the Caribbean, because signs are pointing towards potentially yet another active Atlantic hurricane season, maybe the most active since 2017. What’s worse is that early signs indicate activity might be increased closer to land, like within the Gulf of Mexico and the majority of the Caribbean. 2020 is gonna be a rough year for everybody...what’s next? Volcanoes? Aliens? Godzilla?
  11. It should definitely have been shown to the idiots who held a party of 50 people in SW Connecticut and got over half the attendees infected with COVID-19. People like that are part of the reason why Fairfield County has 270 cases out of 415 in the entire state (the other reason is that we are right on the border with New York, which just surpassed 25,000 confirmed cases).
  12. Day 6 of Coronavirus Vacation: I am prepared for any “shelter and place” order that might be enacted, since the only times I’ve left my neighborhood these past few days are for hiking and nature walks. I got KSP to work so I don’t die of boredom between schoolwork and scholarships. However, I’m getting increasingly concerned about the possibility of school being closed for the rest of the year. Would that prevent me from graduating high school since I wouldn’t be able to properly complete the curriculum? What’s worse is that there are plans for at-home AP testing if we can’t be back to school for them, which, if that were to happen, would be agony.
  13. I’m actually starting to get worried now: A quarantined, constrained, fearful America is becoming closer and closer to reality. I really don’t want this to ruin the rest of my senior year and admissions to college, or my trips and plans for this summer (most of which are to natural areas and hiking places without many people, but who knows what we’ll be able to do).
  14. Day 4 of Coronavirus Vacation: mostly boring, but I’m doing okay. Stocked up on enough groceries to last the next few weeks, and I’ve found a new daily routine of taking care of a Privet shrub (Ligustrum ibolium) I bought for a research project. There’s already a plan for how schoolwork is going to be done over the next two weeks, and once school opens again, the curriculum will go back to normal. Oh, and I also forgot my Steam password so I can’t play KSP. *Quack*
  15. Looks like my school is shutting down because of the Coronavirus. I don’t know the full story yet, might post more later depending on what is announced.
  16. I really, really, really hope it does not progress to levels where interstate travel is prohibited. That is going to pretty much obliterate many of my plans for the next six months — college visits, vacations, entomology research, and possible trips to MIT to work with the TESS team (and perhaps TESSCon2).
  17. Okay, I should’ve rephrased that. What I meant was how many precautions were taken despite the few amount of reported cases here, to the point where it seems like they’re taking it too far too soon, and it seems that they’re not focusing on things that could have a greater likelihood of getting people infected. I am well aware of the importance of making sure infected people get less people infected, which is something I agree with, but what has been done is not going to fulfill that. My school is not particularly clean and is extremely crowded, so if someone does get the virus, we’re all totally screwed. The main concern I have about that scenario is all of us getting quarantined and the possibility of the virus spreading to vulnerable family members.
  18. Connecticut has reached peak panic levels. Just about everything school-related that isn’t being at school (trips, sporting events, conferences, awards ceremonies, etc) have been cancelled or postponed, which is not only excessive, but also ineffective, because my school is so insanely crowded that it’ll be easy for the Coronavirus to spread if someone gets it. I posted the full list of what’s been going on here. Suffice to say, it’s absolutely ridiculous, and all it’s doing is spreading fear and anger.
  19. Oh, but it gets better. It turns out this banning is from the state of Connecticut, and my district has also started cancelling or rescheduling more events. So far.. -All VEX teams in CT are legally forbidden from going to Regionals -VEX Worlds is basically screwed at this point -All students are legally forbidden to leave the state in school trips -All awards ceremonies are cancelled -All events in the auditorium are cancelled -The orchestra trip to Florida is cancelled, which means 80 people just lost a total of $125,000 to $160,000 — and can’t get it back -Prom (and possibly graduation) are being pushed back -The school play is tentatively rescheduled for June, but is at risk for being cancelled -All conferences are cancelled -Multiple after-school events are cancelled -All high school sporting events across the state have been cancelled, including the state tournaments Essentially, the state (and especially my school district in particular) are trying to minimize large groups of people gathering, and don’t want students getting the Coronavirus from another state and bringing it back. However, my school has just been canceling literally everything that isn’t school in fear of the virus, and not only has it massively *quacked* up hundreds of students, but it won’t solve anything. The amount of people meeting in those events is nothing compared to how many people are in my school — over 3,000 — and how incredibly crowded it is. It’s so densely packed here that you’re more likely to get the Coronavirus in school than out of it. It’ll be so easy for it to spread here, and I heard the administration doesn’t want to cancel school because their mindset is basically “oh well, it’s probably already too late”.
  20. Some clarifications on what’s happening in CT: It’s not just my school district banning all field trips. It’s actually issued by the governor; all out-of-state school trips are banned in fear of bringing the Coronavirus back, so going would be illegal. All of New England also appears to be out of the Worlds competition, no matter who wins Regionals (it’s just gonna be Massachusetts teams though). Also, the play and other activities (probably including prom and graduation) are actually being postponed into various parts of June, not outright cancelled (yet).
  21. Unfortunately, right now people are only in “EVERYONE PANIC” mode, and the methods they school system is going to try and combat the virus will only make things worse. Thousands of dollars have now been wasted by hundreds of students and parents with everything being cancelled, and none of that is going to do any good, because my high school is probably the most likely place we’ll get the virus, because it’s so compact. It’s important to keep something like this from being a widespread, deadly infection. However, it’s just as important to not jump the shark and panic so much over a few cases that it completely disrupts so much stuff people spent months and hundreds of dollars working for. There’s a difference between containment and spreading fear.
  22. My school district has banned me and everyone on the VEX Robotics team from going to the Regionals competition in Worcester, MA because of Coronavirus fears...even though there’s been no native cases in my state. If we try to go by any means, we will be punished. The school has also started banning and canceling just about everything else — the play, conferences, some after school events. And let me reiterate, we have NO native cases in Connecticut. Two are from people from New York, and one is from somebody who came from California. It’s completely unjustified panic, and other towns are following suit. At this rate, they’re going to cancel all activities and school for like a week. For more positive was nice out yesterday. That’s kinda it.
  23. With only one native case and two from people who came over from New York, Connecticut has officially entered panic mode. My school district has cancelled conferences and the play (which isn’t until the first days of April), and has banned us on the VEX robotics team from going up to the Regionals competition in Worcester, Massachusetts (which doesn’t have any cases). If any of us go up, we will be punished by the district. Other towns have wimped out and followed suit. I can’t wait for the state-wide shutdown and getting banned from doing anything outside of school. At this rate, they’re going to cancel everything.
  24. Someone with the Coronavirus quarantined themselves at my local hospital. No other cases from an actual resident have been confirmed (that guy was from a neighboring state). 

    So naturally, my school district, in its infinite wisdom, has cancelled all field trips and after school activities. They are forbidding us on the VEX Robotics team from going to the Regionals competition, meaning we’re going to be the only Regionals-qualified school in the state not going. No Regionals means we’re automatically not getting to the Worlds competition, which ruins my chance of actually seeing it in person; same for every other senior on the team. 

    1. GDJ


      That sucks. Yeah we're dealing with the same crap up here in the Great White North. Everybody is in panic mode.

    2. ProtoJeb21


      Oh it gets worse. They cancelled the school play that was supposed to be in a few weeks, and other schools in the state have panicked and banned their teams from Regionals. 

      Typical. They act out of panic and take the easiest, worst option. You can’t contain a virus nobody has.