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ProtoJeb21

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  1. I hope this won’t end up like 1992, because remember what happened in the Atlantic during that year? The activity of the Atlantic often depends on the activity of the East Pacific, and if this EPac season is like 1992, then the Atlantic could be similar to that year as well. Thankfully, it’s not guaranteed. Hopefully there’s no devastating Atlantic hurricane this year like in 1992 or 2017.
  2. Hurricane Norman has explosively intensified into a 145 mph Category 4 hurricane, and the lastest NHC forecast cone has it reaching winds of 155 mph. The rate that this storm has intensified is incredible — 85 mph to 145 mph in just nine and a half hours! If this continues, Norman may become the second Category 5 hurricane of the year. Mewnwhile, Typhoon Jebi has also become a Category 4, with winds of 130 mph. It too has a shot of becoming a Category 5 and also appears to be undergoing rapid intensification.
  3. Speaking of Norman, it appears to be undergoing very rapid intensification. Over the last six hours it’s gone from an 85 mph Category 1 to a 115 mph Category 3 hurricane (the fifth major hurricane of the season already!). Norman has developed the signature compact, symmetrical, circular shape of rapidly intensifying East Pacific storms like 2016’s Lester, which Norman may end up being like in terms of intensity and track. At this time in 2016 — one of the most active EPac seasons overall — it was also at 15 named storms like this year, with the 16th named storm (Newton) less than a week away. This also appears to be the same case for this season. Comparing 2018 so far to 2017 and 2016, it looks like this could end up being a well above average season with 20-22 total named storms, ten or more total hurricanes, and maybe another major hurricane or two (>6 total). Already this year’s ACE is, as you said, well above average, and it’s also 50% higher then all of last year’s ACE! Now the wave is up to 80% in the next 48 hours, and if the GFS models are correct, it will become Tropical Depression 6 or Tropical Storm Florence by tomorrow. The NHC has noted that tropical storm watches or warnings may need to be issued for the Cape Verde islands soon, which will be quite a rare occurrence if I’m correct. The East Pacific area of interest is also now more likely to develop, with a 70% chance of development over the next five days.
  4. According to Tropical Tidbits, both Miriam and Norman are Category 1 hurricanes with 75 mph winds. Typhoon Jebi is also quickly intensifying and is now a Category 2 equalivent storm with winds of 105 mph.
  5. I didn’t know about the wind shear Miriam was facing, although I assumed it was the cause of its weakening. Do you know of any online sources that map wind shear in the tropics? Norman looks to be different than Hector and Lane if it does end up heading towards Hawaii because, while the latter two approached or passed to the south, Norman will be coming from the east-northeast of the islands. If this is the case, it may end up like 2016’s Hurricane Darby or 2014’s Hurricane Iselle, although a landfall on the Big Island is quite unlikely. The fact that Norman is going to be a long-lasting powerful storm will make it very interesting to track. I’d say that tropical wave is just about guaranteed to develop into Tropical Storm Florence by Friday or Saturday — nearly every model is predicting it doing so. The GFS model has it becoming a Category 3 hurricane by early next week, which I’m a bit skeptical about, mainly due to a patch of below-normal SSTs just north of the MDR. Future Florence is likely to pass through this patch, but how much of it the storm goes through depends on its exact track. For now, it looks to be one of those typical long-lasting open-ocean major Cape Verde hurricanes like 2011’s Katia. You’re right, the other area of interest is going to move into the Gulf of Mexico. However, even though that would be concerning for Texas as it’ll be heading into very warm (29-31 C) waters, I don’t anticipate anything major. It’ll likely stay too close to land to become anything more than a tropical storm...I hope.
  6. Some updates on the latest tropical systems: The once formidable Hurricane Lane has, after almost two weeks, finally met its end. Nothing really more to say here. It barely even exists on satellite imagery anyways. Tropical Storm Miriam formed in the East Pacific the other day and was initially forecast to rather quickly strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane. However, once it reached windspeeds of 65 mph, it just...stopped. No more intensification for a whole day, then it began to weaken. I have NO idea why this happened. @SaturnianBlue did you notice any inhibiting factors on Miriam that I missed? Meanwhile, the newly formed Tropical Depression 16-E — now Tropical Storm Norman according to Tropical Tidbits — appears to be doing much better than Miriam. In the last several hours, its connective structure has greatly improved, with an organized cluster of thunderstorms and no exposed circulation. Tropical Tidbits also says that its winds have jumped from 35 mph to 50 mph since the last NHC advisory. If this is true, then Norman may further intensify quicker than expected. Out in the West Pacific is another relatively new system, Tropical Storm Jebi (what a very Kerbal name). It already has winds of 60 mph and its current forecast cone predicts it becoming a Category 4 typhoon by late Labor Day weekend. The GFS model says it’ll become a Category 5 Super Typhoon...but seriously, when has any GFS model accurately predicted the formation of a Cat 5 typhoon? It says that for nearly every new soon-to-be-strong West Pacific storm, and 95% of them end up being Category 2’s, 3’s, and 4’s. However, this time may be different, like with Typhoon Maria, because like the latter, Jebi is going to be traveling a pretty long path over very favorable conditions. Maybe it’ll prove the GFS model right, maybe it won’t, but either way it’s going to be a very interesting storm to track. Finally, I get to talk about the Atlantic for the first time since Beryl reformed back in mid-July. The NHC and other meteorologists have noted that tropical activity could return to the Atlantic basin for the peak of the hurricane season this September, and it looks like the next named system may be upon us. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the coast of Africa south of the Cape Verde islands late Thursday/early Friday, and just about every model on Tropical Tidbits suggests the wave will develop pretty quickly. These predictions could easily change, but because of the short time frame they’re covering (no more than four days), I’d say they’re rather reliable. The same cannot be said about their predictions for a system developing near Florida by early-mid next week, or the possibility of another tropical wave behind the first one developing next week. For right now, the first tropical wave has the highest forecast confidence to be considered worthy for observation.
  7. I didn't think Hurricane Lane could get even more worrying, but apparently I was wrong. The latest updates on the storm as of 18z August 23rd suggest Hawaii is in even more trouble than initially expected, which is concerning for me because I know someone who lived on Oahu. Here's the latest satellite imagery: Last night through earlier today, wind shear to the west had begun to take its toll on Lane, causing it to become more elongated with an asymmetrical - yet still powerful - core. The eye had collapsed pretty early during this phase, and as I mentioned before, it looked like there may have been another eyewall forming last night, potentially signalling the start of another eyewall replacement cycle (EWRC). The latest satellite imagery of Lane makes me fear that this could be the case. Over the last few hours, Lane's core has become more symmetrical again, and now you can visibly see the eye again. Most of the system's convection is becoming more organized around the core while some of the convection ripped off by wind shear continues to drop heavy rainfall over Hawaii. If Lane was not finishing an EWRC, this should not be happening; the storm should continue to lose its organization and, most importantly, weaken to Category 3 status. It has now maintained low Category 4 winds for longer than forecast for today. This maintaining of intensity and its organizational improvement as seen in visible satellite imagery leads me to believe that Lane has finished or is finishing yet another EWRC, which will help the storm remain strong as it gets closer to Hawaii, which is not good news. Another concern is Lane's intensity not including the potential EWRC. The latest intensity guidance models predict that Lane will remain as a Major Hurricane (>111 mph winds) for at least 12 hours, likely closer to 18-24 hours. This, along with the possible EWRC, indicate that Lane will still be a powerful storm even when it reaches Hawaii. To make matters worse, some parts of the island chain can get over a FOOT of rain, on top of the foot some areas have already gotten today. Some places may even exceed 24-30 inches of rain total. If that wasn't bad enough, most models (as seen on Tropical Tidbits) are predicting a very close pass (<50 miles) or even a direct landfall before Lane is steered out to the west. All I can hope is that this storm somehow doesn't get even worse.
  8. Hurricane Lane is weakening as it encounters wind shear near Hawaii, but it’s still a Category 4 with winds of 130 mph. How close it gets to Hawaii is partially dependent on how long it can hold itself together. Most models are suggesting that it won’t drop below major hurricane intensity for another 18-36 hours, which would mean it could still be a Category 3/4 storm by late tomorrow EST. However, last night, I noticed something concerning on visible satellite imagery: what appeared to be a second eyewall around the already clouding eye. I’m worried that Lane may be trying to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, which would help the hurricane strengthen or maintain intensity once it’s finished. Only time will tell.
  9. Hurricane Lane was officially upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane around midnight to 3 am EST, with 160 mph winds. It already reached its new lowest pressure of 922 mbar — the eleventh or twelfth lowest in the East/Central Pacific — and has now started to weaken. It’s still a Category 5, but the pressure has gone up to 934 mbar, similar to Hurricane Matthew. It should be back to a 150-155 mph Category 4 within the next few hours.
  10. @SaturnianBlue Lane’s latest intensity is up in Tropical Tidbits, and it is... ...still a 155 mph Category 4 hurricane. This makes no sense. How can a hurricane have a 12 mbar pressure drop and not result in any increase in winds speed?
  11. It should be, but it isn’t. Current pressure is about 929 mbar — not too far off from the 925 mbar estimate — but its winds are still at 155 mph. At least, that’s what the Weather Channel (and now Wikipedia) says based on the latest reconnaissance. Lane should be upgraded to a Category 5 during the NHC’s next update; if not, maybe during post-season analysis.
  12. 6 hours later, and it’s on the brink of being a Category 5 with 155 mph winds. The latest Hurricane Hunters pass has recorded a pressure drop from 940-942 mbar to about 936 mbar. That, and some of the winds in the eyewall are above 157 mph. Lane’s appearance on satellite imagery is also VERY impressive, with an extremely well-defined, deep eye, and a tight ring of powerful convection. I say it’s quite likely that Lane is or will soon become a Category 5 storm, but it won’t be a match for the wind shear in its path by tomorrow.
  13. Exactly one year ago from this very moment, totality arrived in Colombia, South Carolina. 

  14. This "shrinking" is observed and predicted to happen to most, if not all, forming gas planets. A good example is the Kepler-51 system; in a recent study, it was determined that the three extremely puffy planets, all less massive than Neptune, are only about 500 million years old and will eventually become somewhat denser as their bloated atmospheres contract. However, this process is usually seen with directly imaged Jupiter-mass or Super-Jupiter exoplanets.
  15. It is still young and hot, so its radius will likely shrink with time as it cools. I’m assuming it’s from metallic hydrogen as well. Since there’s so much of it in such a tight space, it would explain why SIMP has such a strong magnetic field. I wonder if scientists can try to determine how fast it rotates; a quick rotation will also help explain its magnetosphere.
  16. The East Pacific is going absolutely nuts. Hurricane Hector keeps on getting stronger, with winds of 155 mph and a pressure of 936 mbar, just a hair away from being the first EPac Category 5 since Patricia. In fact, it may be a Category 5 already. The latest low-level recon flight (it’s close enough to Hawaii from Hurricane Hunters craft to get into it) found winds of up to 170 mph on one side of Hector’s eyewall. Based on how well organized the system is, with a very tight ring of powerful thunderstorms, I find it likely that Hector will become a Category 5. There are now two tropical storms off the coast of Mexico, Ileana and John. Both are set to become hurricanes by later today or early tomorrow, and they’re dangerously close together. John is likely going to absorb or destroy Ileana before rapidly intensifying. Some models suggest it could become another Category 4/5. Meanwhile, Ileana probably won’t be anything more than a weak Category 1. The last Invest in the East Pacific isn’t looking as good as it was a few days ago, but most models predict it will develop within the next day. It has the potential to become a hurricane as well, maybe a Category 1 or 2. The GFS model predicts that it will be pulled north by Hurricane John and undergo a Fujiwhara interaction; the same thing happened to hurricanes Hilary and Irwin last July. EDIT: The latest NHC forecast for Tropical Storm Ileana says that it will not reach hurricane strength as originally predicted; it won’t have enough time before being absorbed by the recently upgraded Hurricane John. The latter will end up as at least a high-end Category 3 hurricane.
  17. Hurricane Hector has been quite an interesting system to track over the last few days. Being such a small storm, with a tight ring of convection and a wind field less than 100 miles across, it’s been more unpredictable than the other powerful East Pacific storms so far this year. Its small size is likely why it’s gone through two periods of rapid intensification. Hector is currently a high-end Category 3 but will likely become this season’s third Category 4 by later tonight or early tomorrow. I believe it may intensify even further, based on its impressive convective structure and how more models are showing it tracking south of Hawaii into warmer, more favorable waters. Some models are suggesting that Hector may survive its journey through the Central Pacific basin and enter the West Pacific, similar to Hurricane/Typhoon Genevieve in 2014. With Hector still going strong, TD 11-E poised to strengthen, and another tropical system likely to develop, this is quite the time to be watching the East Pacific. Meanwhile, the days of rain are finally over where I live. Mostly. With the exception of next Wednesday, there will be NO rainy or stormy days for almost two weeks! The humidity will remain, sure, but otherwise it’ll be quite nice, with mainly or entirely sunny skies and temperatures from the low 80’s to around 90.
  18. Since SIMP is so massive - about 4,039 times the mass of Earth - it likely formed with several planet-sized moons. Usually, satellites of gas giants have around 0.0001 times their parent planet’s mass. This can be seen with the Galilean moons and several of Saturn’s largest moons like Rhea, Iapetus, and Tethys. Any moons around SIMP would likely be around 0.35 to 0.45 Earth masses, large enough to retain a pretty decently sized atmosphere. While at least one has to be Io-like to produce those auroras, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that another moon could be heated to Earth-like temperatures where liquid water can pool on the surface, if it has a thick enough atmosphere. Who knows? Strong tidal forces plus multiple giant moons can lead to some very bizarre and amazing outcomes.
  19. A massive rogue “Super-Jupiter” just 20 light years away discovered back in 2016 was revealed to have an incredibly powerful magnetic field 4 million times stronger than Earth’s. For comparison, this dwarfs Jupiter’s magnetosphere, which is several hundred thousand times stronger than ours. Massive auroras were also detected on this planet. Since it has no star to fuel these light shows, they could be created by a volcanic moon like Io. http://www.astronomy.com/news/2018/08/free-range-planet
  20. *kicks thread back to life* Weather in New England has been berserk over the last two weeks, due to an unusual summertime dip in the jet stream. For nearly a week, I had to deal with random on-and-off storms coming from the south, being pulled up by the jet stream. This setup began to slightly change over the next few days. Mercifully, this resulted in some decent days where I could finally get outside. For the last week or so, the dramatic jet stream dip has lessened a bit, so now storms are coming at us in a more typical SW to NE or W to E direction. They’ve become more predictable and less frequent, leading to a few nice sunny days. It was especially nice in Plymouth when I visited there Friday and Saturday. However, one major problem remained: the humidity. Temperatures have already been in the mid to high 80’s for days now, and constant 60-80% humidity does not help. Heat index values have been maxing out in the mid to high 90’s since late last week. This can sometimes make even a few minutes outside almost unbearable. Fun. It also doesn’t help that the storms over the last two days have been some of the strongest during this two week timeframe. My area was under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning both today and Wednesday, and various flood advisories have been issued as well. Thankfully, no major damage has been reported.
  21. Since version 0.90 I’ve had a tradition of making a main science mode save named “Solar System SCIENCE!” Until around 1.2 I would always replace the previous SSS with a new one when the game updated, but from 1.2 to 1.3 I used the same save. I’ve also kept the one I made for 1.3 through 1.4.4, and I’m still using it now.
  22. If he manages to survive the thousands of Kerbals he’s killed that have come for their revenge.
  23. That was the last thing I was expecting today. It’s been so long since Beryl first dissipated that I assumed its remnants would be unable to reform.
  24. It’s temperature has already been mapped with the Spitzer telescope (dayside of 2709 K, nightside of 1600 K) and indicates a Venus-level greenhouse effect from an atmosphere of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and/or oxygen. This is in good agreement with the paper I linked above, but the Spitzer measurements suggested a lower atmospheric pressure of 1.4 bar instead of 90-3000 bar. Also, the surface gravity is not 8g, but 2.27g, even though it’ll likely feel like more depending on the exact atmospheric surface pressure of the planet.
  25. Using years’ worth of observations, a team of scientists have determined the most precise parameters for the 55 Cancri system. They were able to pin down the masses of the four gas planets to very low percent errors, determine the age of 55 Cancri, and study its Sun-like magnetic cycle. However, their most important accomplishment is finally figuring out the composition of 55 Cancri e/Janssen. Instead of being a Carbon Planet or a world with a thick steam layer, it turns out Janssen is far more likely to be rock-dominated with a thick (about 90-300 bar or less) atmosphere of heavy compounds like carbon dioxide, oxygen, nitrogen, and/or sodium. What’s interesting to note is that in the years following its discovery as a transiting RV planet, Janssen has been “shrinking” - new size estimates for it have gone down over time, while its calculated density has gone up. It is now believed to be almost exactly 8 times the mass of Earth and 87.5% larger with a suspicious density of 6.66 g/cm^3 (no wonder why it’s such a terrible place). You can read the full paper here: https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.04301
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