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  1. That's very true, but Musk simply has to convince enough investors that profit is just over the next hill. I'd imagine that his image, popularity, and borderline cult-of-personality help with that. In the spirit of the old Keynes quote, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
  2. I think that it's also instructive here to consider that in terms of motivation, Musk isn't a normal CEO. Musk's goal with SpaceX is to make humanity interplanetary; large-scale reuse (even if it hypothetically isn't the most economical option right now) and orbital assembly/refueling are almost certainly going to be part of that. If SpaceX is making a huge profit, that's great, but I don't think that Musk really cares about profit in the grand scheme of things. As long as he can control the company and keep the investors from retreating, that's good enough for him. To risk going off topic, I'd wager that line of thinking is part of the reason why Tesla is eating up so much money as well. Whether Tesla is profitable doesn't greatly concern Musk. He just wants to grow the EV industry in general as quickly as possible by maximizing production and minimizing price. (Disclaimer: I'm not the most well-read on Tesla, so I apologize if this comparison is totally off-base.) I'd even go so far as to say Musk is an activist first, and a CEO second, but perhaps that's going too far. (Also, just to put my own stake in this, I do think that reuse helps SpaceX's bottom-line, but I can't say for certain.)
  3. Interview with Beck by Ars Technica I will say that I found this statement interesting⁠— This statement seems to suggest that there could be enough demand for a similarly sized LV for another company to be successful—even after the inevitable industry shakedown. And on the subject of a shakedown... I couldn't have imagined having 130 small-launch vehicle companies existing a decade ago. It's amazing how times change.
  4. If Starship alone is short of dV to orbit, it may still be able to fly a mission similar to the Shuttle's abort once around profile.
  5. Regarding Bridenstine's 2021 comment, I'd like to add Jeff Foust's interpretation as well. Here's Eric Berger again for reference (just the article's headline). Jeff and Eric have a similar read on this, so I'm inclined to believe that Bridenstine is ruling out a 2020 launch.
  6. As long as they aren't gyroscopes hammered in upside down.
  7. In these days where simulation is supplementing physical testing in aerospace, there is something gratifying about watching SpaceX's experiments.
  8. Encouraging that this is Gwynne time and not Elon time.
  9. This is welcome news.
  10. I just saw a pass at 21:45 CDT from Houston. All I can say is that the real thing lives up to (and surpasses, in my opinion) the videos and pictures! That said, I did have the benefit of a clear sky and the peak elevation was 80 degrees, so your mileage may vary.
  11. Obligatory: That said, I do think the chances are better than 1 in 1,000,000. If funding materializes and there aren't any major snags with the hardware, then it is certainly possible.
  12. Though I think it not likely, there is indeed a non-trivial probability that SpaceX could fail. The argument of market uncertainties becomes less effective when one considers that SpaceX is not the only company developing heavy launch vehicles. Bezos has effectively unlimited capital for Blue Origin and New Glenn. ULA's proven record and government connections will help it to push Vulcan along. The concern that SpaceX could fail is perfectly reasonable; however, the concern that SpaceX, Blue Origin, and ULA could all fail seems a bit far-fetched. [EDIT] Well, looks like I was just a bit too slow...
  13. Seconded for the original STS architecture. I find the reusable agena to be particularly fascinating.
  14. To think that this is an April fools prank and yet this is not. The mind boggles.