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Discussion of Russian vs US launch vehicles and Buran vs Shuttle vs Soyuz got me thinking. I'm sure all of us here are well aware that the Shuttle program was based on some ill-conceived notions, both with respect to the demand for flights as well as the capability of NASA to execute rapid Shuttle turnaround. The Shuttle had some neat capabilities (launching payload along with service crew, e.g. Hubble) and promised abilities (sat recovery), but it was never really used like it could have been. And the flight rate was so low that reuse cost more than it saved. But what if they had been right about the demand for the Shuttle's abilities? What if the market demanded a launch vehicle that could sent up large payloads along with crew, as well as occasionally retrieving sensitive cargo from orbit? What if the market was so saturated with demand that economies of scale were in full swing? It's clear that even under those circumstances, the Shuttle's high refurbishment cost and lengthy turnaround time wouldn't have been the best fit (even ignoring its safety record). But what might have been better? If you were designing a launch vehicle with these sorts of target capabilities, how would you go about it?
