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From wiki. Phase Orbit shells (km) Number of satellites Inclination (degrees) Half size contractual completion time Full size contractual completion time Current completion (23 May 2019) 1 550 1,584 53 March 2024 March 2027 62 1,110 1,600 53.8 0 1,130 400 74 0 1,275 375 81 0 1,325 450 70 0 2 335.9 2,493 42 November 2024 November 2027 0 340.8 2,478 48 0 345.6 2,547 53 0 So, they distinguish 335, 340, and 345 km orbit, and as well 1110 and 1130. They also distinguish 53° and 53.8°, i.e. 0.2° = 12' ~= 12 nm ~= 22 km. So, this gives us a mesh step ~= 5..20 km in their sat pattern. Total area of a sphere of radius: 330 km = 4 * pi * (6370+330)2 ~= 564 mln km2 1330 km = 4 * pi * (6370+1330)2 ~= 745 mln km2 So, 564*106 * ((345+5) - (335-5)) / 7500 = 1.5 mln km3/sat in 340 km orbits. 745*106 * 20 / 4400 = 3.4 mln km3/sat in higher than ISS orbits. A 340 km orbit length = 2 * pi * (6730 + 340) ~= 44 400 km. A 480 km orbit length (ISS) = 2 * pi * (6730 + 480) ~= 45 300 km. So, say, our orbit is ~45 000 km long. Say, our cross-section area is 20 x 20 m ~400 m2 = 4*10-4 km2. (A large sat, a spaceship + upper stage, or else). Total volume of the orbital torus = 45 000 * 4 * 10-4 ~= 18 km3. So, the probability of a sat crossing our way is roughly: ~18 / 1.5*106 ~=1.2 * 10-5, 1 chance per ~80 000 orbital turns in LEO. ~18 / 3*106 ~= 0.6 * 10-5, 1 chance per ~160 000 orbital turns in typical OS 480 km orbit (ISS, Mir), when the sats orbit get significantly decayed. 1 day = 24 / 1.5 = 16 turns. Chances to hit a sat spending in 340 km orbit a day = 1-(1 - 1.2*10-5)16 = 0.0002 = 1:5000 a week = 1-(1 - 0.0002)7 = 0.0014 = 1:700 a month = 1-(1 - 0.0002)30 = 0.006 = 1:160 a year = 1-(1 - 0.006)12 = 0.07 = 1:14 Chances to hit a decaying orbit sat spending in 480 km orbit a year = 1-(1 - 0.6*10-5)16*365 = 0.034 = 1:30 *** Say, a sat lifespan is ~15 years. This means that every year they should deliver ~1/15 of total sats amount = ~800 sats/year. Probably they are going to deorbit the failed sats, so ~800 sats are going to deorbit. But as a launch vehicles are ~0.98 reliable, and the sats to be deorbited are by definition out of service, we can presume that ~20% of sats will stay in orbit as garbage. So, +160 sats every year. Twenty years later there will be ~3000 additional dead sats plus to the initial amount. *** Plus kesslerization of this Say that 15 years long Starlink sat. Say, its cross-section is ~5 m2 (including the solar panel) Its orbital torus volume ~ 45 000 * 5*10-6 ~= 0.2 km3. At 1.5 mln km3/sat around, the probability to hit another Starlink sat is ~ 0.2/1.5*106 ~= 1.3*10-7 per turn. Per year = 1-(1-1.3*10-7)16*365 ~= 0.00076 = 1:1300. So, we can expect ~5..10 Starlink collisions per year. Every collision creates, say, 10 debris, so +several hundred objects per year. Of course, most of them will deorbit, but while deorbiting they can hit a Starlink sat in a lower shell. *** So, if the Starlink had been raised, 30-40 years later there will be no safe orbit below the radiation belts for anything bigger than a Starlink sat.
Ever since I watched Danny's video about playing around with the relay networks in his first time of 1.2, I have become obsessed with his design that shot off several probes in orbit of the Mun. I want to expand on this idea, something I like to call Relay Kesslers. My dream relay kessler would include about 12-18 probes that include their own reaction wheels, boosters, solar panels, and of course, the relays. This is heavy, RAM intensive, and somewhat impractical if the kessler itself had enough Dv to transport the relays. So far, I have gotten a stable design that only holds six of these probes. I added heat shields and parachutes to go to Eve. They would've survived long-term if it weren't for the gravity smacking them hard enough on the ground to shatter their solar panels. Supposing the kessler has enough Dv and torque (for stability) to transfer simplistic relays (just a probe core, solar panels/RTGs, a relay, and possibly a battery just in case)about the Kerbol system would theoretically shave off a large amount of Dv to waste. The biggest challenge I find myself encountering is the means to deploy said relays. Some designs have a structural element on top of the 2.5m probe core and the small girders to hold separators. My latest attempt has simplistic designs encased in stacked 2.5m service bays. These have to be much more simplistic and have huge trouble getting out of the bay, often breaking the solar panels, but it's lighter. I'm thinking of deploying an empty mothership with several docking ports and launch several of the small probes to dock with it, but then what's the point of wasting all the time and effort when it can all be in one simple launch? I've also been trying to find a career-friendly way to incorporate this malicious military and government surveillance device wonderful way to cross together a DSN. Most importantly, I'd like to stay fully stock. What do you think of the relay kessler? http://imgur.com/a/82oTg
Have you ever wanted to make a debris field around Kerbin and you had to make a cumbersome "Kessler bomb" craft which didn't work as planned? Or it was just a collection of separators that didn't present enough challenge or hazard? Too much hassle building a serious debris layer? Grinding with Hyper Edit? Imagine having a mod that would allow you to put a wanted number of random debris at a defined orbital height and inclination? Plates, girders, tanks, separators, etc., all floating around, making a mess? Tell me what you think about this idea.