Waitbutwhy's blog on SpaceX, Mars and the future

[Bill Phil]

Yes. I do. I believe that SpaceX is our best shot at Mars, because they have the money (unlike Mars One), but more importantly, they have a true vision (unlike NASA).

NASA can't really decide what they do. They're non-autonomous, what they do is chosen by Congress.

[Kryten]

What's not to believe? that a rich guy has a dream? That he has an idea how to make it happen? that he has a financial plan to pay for it?

I can see how you would believe he intends to do it, but... there's no reason to believe any significant number of people even want to do it, or that the $500,000 figure is any less ludicrous than it looks. It looks far more like a religious endeavour than anything approaching a business.

Edited August 21, 2015 by Kryten

[RainDreamer]

I can see how you would believe he intends to do it, but... there's no reason to believe any significant people even want to do it, or that the $500,000 figure is any less ludicrous than it looks. It looks far more like a religious endeavour than anything approaching a business.

Well, it might very well be depending on how you look at it. The cult of Space X lead by a charismatic, eccentric rich guy with a vision out of this world and a mission to mars. Though at least this cult result in new contribution to aerospace technology and science, and once again get our gazes upon the stars.

[Mazon Del]

I can see how you would believe he intends to do it, but... there's no reason to believe any significant number of people even want to do it, or that the $500,000 figure is any less ludicrous than it looks. It looks far more like a religious endeavour than anything approaching a business.

Actually, it really ends up depending on how you phrase the hiring question.

Would you like a job with a lifetime employment guarantee, theoretically excellent healthcare, room, and board all free of charge. All training provided to you at no cost. A wonderful sense of comradeship due to everyone depending on everyone else. And you are literally building a new world for your children.

That sounds like a hell of a good deal to me.

Besides, even if I had to pay the 500K to do it. I'd find a way. I get that I don't represent the majority of mankind, but I'd still do it.

Plus, you don't actually need to reach 1M settlers from Earth. Just around 5-10K is all you NEED for minimum genetic diversity, to say nothing of people who might donate sperm/eggs to be shipped to Mars to help ensure that should Earth get cut off. The 1M is mostly a hyper padded number that just kind of ensures that you have enough manpower to shove into whatever problems you might run into.

[Kryten]

That sounds like a hell of a good deal to me.

It sounds like a pile of BS to me. Even if we assume the transport system is technically feasible and hits the cost targets, you have a few hundred people being dumped somewhere where you can't even breathe the air. Setting up the infrastructure required to have an acceptable lifestyle, especially stuff like 'excellent healthcare', would take a huge amount of effort and ISRU tech far beyond anything we have today, and automated and miniaturised manufacturing tech far beyond what we have today, et.c. et.c.

[RainDreamer]

It sounds like a pile of BS to me. Even if we assume the transport system is technically feasible and hits the cost targets, you have a few hundred people being dumped somewhere where you can't even breathe the air. Setting up the infrastructure required to have an acceptable lifestyle, especially stuff like 'excellent healthcare', would take a huge amount of effort and ISRU tech far beyond anything we have today, and automated and miniaturised manufacturing tech far beyond what we have today, et.c. et.c.

I don't think even Elon think we can do it with what we have today. But instead of saying "we can't do it" he asks, "what can we do to make it possible", and set out to find an answer, so that by the time of our children and grandchildren, they actually can do it.