When will SpaceX put a colony on Mars?  

146 members have voted

  1. 1. When will SpaceX begin putting a colony on Mars?

    • 2026
      12
    • 2028
      9
    • 2030
      21
    • 2032
      10
    • 2034
      6
    • 2036
      12
    • Beyond- i.e. 2038-50
      41
    • It won't happen, and Elon will be really sad
      35


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500.000 $ for a Mars trip  ??? This is not serious. Even if you paid 500.000.000 $ per person, it would not be enough money for ticket in the next 15 years. However I think that there would be many people (Chinese, Russian) who would pay 500.000.000 $  (not in cash, but stocks, shares ) or more even for one way flight. But we have to wait until the technology will be better.

Btw. we could have had a human on Mars if we had sent a volunteer instead of the Curiosity rover for a suicide mission. Such a mission is possible to do in the next years.

Edited by superpasikonik

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1 hour ago, superpasikonik said:

500.000 $ for a Mars trip  ??? This is not serious. Even if you paid 500.000.000 $ per person, it would not be enough money for ticket in the next 15 years. However I think that there would be many people (Chinese, Russian) who would pay 500.000.000 $  (not in cash, but stocks, shares ) or more even for one way flight. But we have to wait until the technology will be better.

Btw. we could have had a human on Mars if we had sent a volunteer instead of the Curiosity rover for a suicide mission. Such a mission is possible to do in the next years.

500k would likely only pay for the resources to keep them alive, the rest of the funding would come from commercial satellite revenue, and Elon's "Fast internet idea" (http://gizmodo.com/elon-musks-space-internet-plan-is-moving-forward-1711008007) (Assuming it gets of the ground), and whatever else SpaceX can get between now and 2024, also, rapid reusable rockets will lower the cost per-launch dramatically.

Edited by Spaceception

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5 hours ago, Spaceception said:

500k would likely only pay for the resources to keep them alive, the rest of the funding would come from commercial satellite revenue, and Elon's "Fast internet idea" (http://gizmodo.com/elon-musks-space-internet-plan-is-moving-forward-1711008007) (Assuming it gets of the ground), and whatever else SpaceX can get between now and 2024, also, rapid reusable rockets will lower the cost per-launch dramatically.

Yeah, good luck with that, Elon. I doubt 500k is enough for the foseeable future. 

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1 hour ago, fredinno said:

Yeah, good luck with that, Elon. I doubt 500k is enough for the foseeable future. 

I didn't have time to add this to my post earlier, but I meant to add that the price per-person would enter the 1m range or beyond for the first decade or so.

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Begin?

You could say it's already begun. So, I'll put the earliest date option available. As for when it ends and we see people walking on red soil, well I don't have a crystal ball. I think it'll happen though. There's already large interests vying to be the first, and on the surface at least, it seems a hugely challenging but technically possible operation.

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To be honest it is completely unpredictable. Space x do not release enough information for us to know. We have know idea how developed/not developed the MCT is. It is unpredictable without more info.

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9 hours ago, SR said:

To be honest it is completely unpredictable. Space x do not release enough information for us to know. We have know idea how developed/not developed the MCT is. It is unpredictable without more info.

This would be a more applicable statement to BO than SpaceX. Musk doesn't have that much money, which is why SpaceX is a business---that actually sells product.

BO is Bezo's hobby.

 

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2 hours ago, tater said:

This would be a more applicable statement to BO than SpaceX. Musk doesn't have that much money, which is why SpaceX is a business---that actually sells product.

BO is Bezo's hobby.

 

The reason Space x is a business, is he can get people to pay for his test flights that way.

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8 hours ago, SR said:

The reason Space x is a business, is he can get people to pay for his test flights that way.

No, it's a business because he doesn't have the money otherwise. Their first successful launch was cobbled together from parts... it was the last they could afford, too, had it failed, he'd have given up as it was costing too much (according to Musk in an interview I saw).

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But space x charge the lowest launch costs of anyone, Arianespace had to apply for subsidies from the EU. Surely this suggests that they are charging very little, and not making a profit.

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1 minute ago, SR said:

But space x charge the lowest launch costs of anyone, Arianespace had to apply for subsidies from the EU. Surely this suggests that they are charging very little, and not making a profit.

We don't have to make stuff up, my statement is uncontroversial, Musk has said as much. SpaceX is a BUSINESS, and requires customers to be a thing. That one is NASA has resulted in R&D money. 

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38 minutes ago, SR said:

But space x charge the lowest launch costs of anyone, Arianespace had to apply for subsidies from the EU. Surely this suggests that they are charging very little, and not making a profit.

Commercial flights are, by definition, commercial activities. They at least break even.

NASA flights, SpaceX charges something like 50% more for, for the same kind of launch. That's nearly pure profit.

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          With more Micro Gravity research (Space Research), we will soon find more efficient ways of producing energy in space, or ways of utilizing pre fueled craft's fuel for longer periods of time.  Space X has the brains, I just think they need to start expanding even more with the space travel. Working with NASA is a start.  I also think that NASA has a big part in SpaceX's success, but due to obamas new policy :rolleyes: NASA does not have the funding to be as productive as they wish.  As for spaceX colonizing mars, I think it could happen soon, but their are too many factors to make an accurate prediction. 

 

Edited by ISE
Correction

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8 hours ago, ISE said:

          With more Micro Gravity research (Space Research), we will soon find more efficient ways of producing energy in space, or ways of utilizing pre fueled craft's fuel for longer periods of time.  

Um, no.

 

8 hours ago, ISE said:

Space X has the brains, I just think they need to start expanding even more with the space travel. Working with NASA is a start.  I also think that NASA has a big part in SpaceX's success, but due to obamas new policy :rolleyes: NASA does not have the funding to be as productive as they wish.  

:rolleyes:

8 hours ago, ISE said:

As for spaceX colonizing mars, I think it could happen soon, but their are too many factors to make an accurate prediction. 

It can't happen in a time frame any reasonable person would define as "soon." 

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28 minutes ago, Basto said:

Wow dragons on Mars by 2018

 

 

HYYYYYYYYPE

Although, it'll probably be more like 2019 due to pushbacks, but still :D

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10 minutes ago, Spaceception said:

HYYYYYYYYPE

Although, it'll probably be more like 2019 due to pushbacks, but still :D

Actually if there is delay they would have to wait for the next transfer window in 2020. 

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1 minute ago, Basto said:

Actually if there is delay they would have to wait for the next transfer window in 2020. 

:P

True.

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So, I know there's a thread for this already

See?

So we know Red Dragon is happening, Dragon V2 tests for manned ISS missions are already happening, and the Falcon heavy will be launching late this year, so once both tests are done, they will most definitely begin to build the Red Dragon.

Anyway, if they launch in 2018 (Yes, I know that they reschedule a lot, but a lot can happen in 2 years), do you think that SpaceX will actually put humans on Mars before 2030? Or just have a much higher chance, as they will have put something on Mars before? Or will you only be convinced once the MCT launches in around the 2020's?

Your thoughts on the higher possibility on their SpaceX colony here only, talk about Red Dragon on the thread above :)

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Sending a 1-way lander is a lot different than sending a crew on a return mission. There is also no possible economic return. SpaceX, unlike the government, cannot simply print money.

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If they do put a dragon on mars by 2018 or maybe 2020, it will only be useful as a demonstrator of powered landing on mars... There's no way a dragon will be used for a manned trip to mars, so the "red dragon" is probably not so much of a big deal

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Mars by 2024, so immediately 2 years after the first Red Dragon, I guess they're gonna just send a few dozen at once? Damn.

The video where he talks is here, don't mind the thumbnail, this was a unoffical reupload. But I don't know where he said it so here! Article! http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/02/musk-we-intend-to-launch-people-to-mars-in-2024.html

 

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1 hour ago, Spaceception said:

Mars by 2024, so immediately 2 years after the first Red Dragon, I guess they're gonna just send a few dozen at once? Damn.

The video where he talks is here, don't mind the thumbnail, this was a unoffical reupload. But I don't know where he said it so here! Article! http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/02/musk-we-intend-to-launch-people-to-mars-in-2024.html

 

This claim is ridiculous at best, with what life support he claims to get people to mars? Because is the harder part.

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Just now, kunok said:

This claim is ridiculous at best, with what life support he claims to get people to mars? Because is the harder part.

I guess we'll just have to wait until September for the fine details, Elon isn't budging :P

Until then, lets just dive into what we know now :)

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