Will JAXA make their own manned spacecraft?

[fredinno]

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=19061.0

http://aviationweek.com/awin/japan-charts-path-manned-space-missions

http://www.space.com/18198-japan-plans-manned-capsule-space-plane.html

http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/organizations/jaxa/japan-planning-to-upgrade-htv-cargo-spacecraft/

JAXA has shown interest in making their own manned spacecraft. Though efforts like Fuiji have failed before, could JAXA finally get working on a manned spacecraft again? Many of the links are from 2012, and are thus outdated (and are describing a proposal), a similar proposal has apparently been submitted to the country's National Space Policy Committee in May 2015, by the country's Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Ministry, adding some more concete to the plans.

Such a manned spacecraft would be a capsule using a HTV- derived spacecraft, though lifting body options were also studied.

Maybe the fact that China has one makes people in Japan feel they should have a manned space capacity too? (Japan and China have a small degree of a rivalry with each other)

Would something actually get past the planning stages at this point?

[Nibb31]

JAXA is a government agency, and the Japanese government has little extra money to spare on space exploration since the 2011 tsunami. Also, a manned vehicle only makes sense if it has somewhere to go. There is little to learn by replaying Gemini, so it has be part of a wider program, such as lunar exploration or a space station, which makes it even more expensive.

[fredinno]

8 minutes ago, Nibb31 said:

JAXA is a government agency, and the Japanese government has little extra money to spare on space exploration since the 2011 tsunami. Also, a manned vehicle only makes sense if it has somewhere to go. There is little to learn by replaying Gemini, so it has be part of a wider program, such as lunar exploration or a space station, which makes it even more expensive.

They have the ISS and the Chinese Space Station- but the former has an expiration date soon, and the latter needs cooperation with China, which may or may not happen.

[Nibb31]

They can't reasonably have an operational manned launcher before the ISS comes to an end. And cooperation with China seems unrealistic.

Countries like India or Iran or North Korea might be able to earn prestige points by doing a Mercury-like program, but Japan is beyond that.

[Budgie]

Gotta agree with Nibb. I'm sure they have some preliminary designs stashed away somewhere. But when you can buy a safe trip on a Soyuz to the ISS, why develop a spacecraft when you have no experience designing habitable and survivable capsules?

If JAXA wants to take part in BEO exploration, they'll likely pick a front runner in the race and give them extra money/hardware/both in exchange for seats on, for example, Orion missions, like the ESA did.

Edited March 2, 2016 by Budgie

[kerbiloid]

It's much easier to achieve scienctific results and glory sending unmanned probes to other celestial bodies than by creating replicas of already existed ships and modules.
Also, robots and avatars are the future of spaceflights.

So - yes, they will.
And by the time when they do this, usual space crew will look like that:

 

[fredinno]

9 minutes ago, kerbiloid said:

It's much easier to achieve scienctific results and glory sending unmanned probes to other celestial bodies than by creating replicas of already existed ships and modules.
Also, robots and avatars are the future of spaceflights.

So - yes, they will.
And by the time when they do this, usual space crew will look like that:

 

Lol, but actually seems somewhat realistic, considering their focus on robotic tech.

[Pipcard]

I've always wanted to see a Japanese manned spacecraft. Unfortunately, their economy has been relatively stagnant for a while now (even though it is currently the third largest economy) and so it is more pragmatic to ride on Soyuz.

Edited March 3, 2016 by Pipcard

[YNM]

They probably have less money. But considering what the Japanese did with Hayabusa-2 and their nationalism (look up the brochure, stands, anything), there could exist a slight political reason to have their own manned spaceflight capability. Love their unmanned, complex probes though !

[fredinno]

6 hours ago, Pipcard said:

I've always wanted to see a Japanese manned spacecraft. Unfortunately, their economy has been relatively stagnant for a while now (even though it is currently the third largest economy) and so it is more pragmatic to ride on Soyuz.

And your manned Japanese spacecraft would be the "Miku?"