Can SpaceX live up to its Mars Promise?

[Ozymandias_the_Goat]

Now, I am amazed by SpaceX's attempts to reuse rockets and eagerly await their launches. But, they have made some unrealistically optimistic plans to get people to the red planet. First, they want to land people there by 2027 or 2025. They can't even get humans to LEO yet. A mars landing in 10 years seems a bit out of reach. Second, they plan to build the giant Falcon XX rocket. If they can reuse cheap(er) little rockets like the falcon 9, a huge rocket would be pointless. Third, they want a colony of 80,000 people there by 2050. How will they get 80,000 people to fly to Mars in 35 years? To go to mars will be a huge effort by many space programs and thousands of companies, maybe 20 to 30 years from now. I don't thinks a mars run by the "little company that could" will work. SpaceX may be a valuable player in a future mars mission, but it seems unlikely that they will land permanent settlers there in a decade. Mars colonization should best be left to the SpaceX of the next century.

[fredinno]

1 hour ago, LetsGoToMars! said:

Now, I am amazed by SpaceX's attempts to reuse rockets and eagerly await their launches. But, they have made some unrealistically optimistic plans to get people to the red planet. First, they want to land people there by 2027 or 2025. They can't even get humans to LEO yet. A mars landing in 10 years seems a bit out of reach. Second, they plan to build the giant Falcon XX rocket. If they can reuse cheap(er) little rockets like the falcon 9, a huge rocket would be pointless. Third, they want a colony of 80,000 people there by 2050. How will they get 80,000 people to fly to Mars in 35 years? To go to mars will be a huge effort by many space programs and thousands of companies, maybe 20 to 30 years from now. I don't thinks a mars run by the "little company that could" will work. SpaceX may be a valuable player in a future mars mission, but it seems unlikely that they will land permanent settlers there in a decade. Mars colonization should best be left to the SpaceX of the next century.

Actually, the Falcon XX was replaced by the MCT. But SpaceX probably won't live up to the mars promise, at least not as much he has layed it out.

[Budgie]

2 hours ago, LetsGoToMars! said:

If they can reuse cheap(er) little rockets like the falcon 9, a huge rocket would be pointless.

People keep saying this, people keep forgetting that heavy lift rockets will be an absolute necessity for reaching far off BEO targets. You can subdivide a large interplanetary spacecraft into multiple launches, sure. But then each individual payload will require docking/berthing ports, a "probe core" to guide it to the larger spacecraft, its own RCS system, its own RCS tanks, etc...

You simplify all of this down by flying larger payloads on rockets like SLS or the MCT, drastically reducing the number of redundant systems once all elements of the interplanetary spacecraft are assembled together.

[KSK]

Probably not but I'm sure going to enjoy watching them try.

[SargeRho]

Probably not, but hopefully yes.

[Elthy]

As a reminder: They got their first payload into orbit in 2008. Look how far theyve got in the last years, and try to project that into the future. They will propably have delays and stuff, but their pace of development is quite impressive!

[Mitchz95]

Isn't there already a thread for this?

[Spaceception]

14 minutes ago, Mitchz95 said:

Isn't there already a thread for this?

Yeah, it's mine

 

[Findthepin1]

We're always going to be 10 years away from a manned landing on Mars.

[technicalfool]

2 hours ago, Spaceception said:

Yeah, it's mine

 

Yep, I'll go with that.

Thread closed, move on over to that one! Has a handy little poll, too.