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Aethon

By Aethon
in Science & Spaceflight

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Streetwind

Streetwind

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Not bad for an asspull, considering that IIRC when they made a huge survey on Reddit (five-digit participants), 11 was the grand average of everyone's opinions :P

So far they have launched 5 missions in the first four months, and then there was a big lull. It looks like we'll see launch #6 before the end of the 6th month though, so that's a start. Then another month of nothing, and then a whole lot of scrambling to get ten* manifested missions launched in the remaining five months.

So that's a potential total of 16 launches that they could be doing. It's not like they didn't do two launches per month before. Of course we all know it's not going to work out because Delays Happen, but something like 11? Probably doable! I bet they'll try to make 12, since that would let them claim having doubled their launch rate two years in a row (2013: 3 launches, 2014: 6 launches).

* (Jason-3, SES-9, Orbcomm OG2, CRS flight 8, AMOS-6, Eutelsat 117W B & ABS-2A, JCSat-14, SAOCOM-1A, SAOCOM-1B, CRS flight 9)

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RuBisCO

RuBisCO

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I learned something from the previous attempts:

If you see some of controllers at SpaceX throw their hands up in the air after 9 minute: it crashed

Now if we don't see that I don't know what will happen next. I suspect they would put live pictures within 30 seconds of a successful landing up for the world to see on NASA TV and their own video stream.

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Streetwind

Streetwind

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Probably not on NASA Tv and probably not within 30 seconds. SpaceX doesn't have live feed of the landing attempts.

To clarify: they do have a live feed from the deck of the barge, which is studded with cameras. However, that feed is strongly weather-dependant and even in the best cases rarely exceeds more than a few frames per second. Ultimately this allows mission control to see live whether or not the attempt succeeded, but it makes for a poor viewing experience. As soon as the support ship finishes remotely safing the stage (this will take a long time) and can board the barge, proper video can be retrieved from the camera's SD cards. Similarly, video from the stage-mounted cameras can be retrieved after the stage has been returned. Video from the chase plane is available after it lands back ashore.

However, SpaceX has said in the past that in case of a successful landing, it's possible that they might tack a clip of whatever they have of it at the end of the webcast, just before they sign off. Again, depends on whether or not it's worth watching.

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sojourner

sojourner

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Really ? why not ?

Because the NASA part of the mission is the CRS-7. They won't let the first stage landing steal the limelight on their channel.

If you watch all the previous NASA feeds of the Dragon launches you'll notice that the NASA announcer never acknowledges the landing attempts occurring on those missions.

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Mad Rocket Scientist

Mad Rocket Scientist

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To clarify: they do have a live feed from the deck of the barge, which is studded with cameras. However, that feed is strongly weather-dependant and even in the best cases rarely exceeds more than a few frames per second. Ultimately this allows mission control to see live whether or not the attempt succeeded, but it makes for a poor viewing experience. As soon as the support ship finishes remotely safing the stage (this will take a long time) and can board the barge, proper video can be retrieved from the camera's SD cards. Similarly, video from the stage-mounted cameras can be retrieved after the stage has been returned. Video from the chase plane is available after it lands back ashore.

However, SpaceX has said in the past that in case of a successful landing, it's possible that they might tack a clip of whatever they have of it at the end of the webcast, just before they sign off. Again, depends on whether or not it's worth watching.

I want a poor viewing experience! WAHHHHHH!

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AngelLestat

AngelLestat

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Because the NASA part of the mission is the CRS-7. They won't let the first stage landing steal the limelight on their channel.

If you watch all the previous NASA feeds of the Dragon launches you'll notice that the NASA announcer never acknowledges the landing attempts occurring on those missions.

I am not a good friend of NASA lately, but I am totally sure that the desicion to not show the landing attempt is all on spacex hands.

First they wanna show that the main objective (carry something to space) is accomplish, then they want to control how to show the "fail or sucess" of the landing attempt.

If they show it in the same video, the mission might look like a fail. So that is why they want to keep well separate... mission for one side.. technologic development in the other.

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Airlock

Airlock

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Here's the prelaunch briefing (transcript in spoilers below):

What is it about this booster attempt that makes you more confident than before?

Previous booster attempts made corrections that can help a lot, gave experience through trials that can fix things later. Two problems have been solved. Hard to say what odds there are, but feel a lot better about this time.

Can you explain why you need the IDA docking adapters compared to the Shuttle adapters?

APAS (shuttle) not designed for auto-docking. APAS could possibly work, but it is so old that it was really just simpler to come up with a new international docking adapter spec that will work for all countries and increase commonalities between countries (Mars, etc may require int'l cooperation). IPA is the first step towards space collaboration, rather than space race. Should increase space exploration further than ever before.

Main difference is that it allows for automated docking if needed.

When do you think you'll land the Falcon on land?

It's not driven by schedule, but by performance. They need a lighter mission to do RTLS. It's a mission before the end of this year. Safety is another constraint, needs to be reliable. Once both safety and performance is ready, they'll go.

Docking adapter: IDA is universal. How many other docking/berthing adapters are there on the station now?

Russian colleagues have a number of different docking ports. They use probe-drogue like Apollo, small-diameter but it's lighter than any other system. They wanted to keep the androgynous design like APAS instead of probe-drogue which doesn't have the same flexibility in contingency situations. IDA permits for the most flexible style, so Russian design was out even though it's simpler and lighter. On the US orbital segment, they want full IDA eventually. Russia will continue to use probe-drogue. US has Common Berthing Mech, which has a very strong structure. That means a much larger hatch than other ports like IDA, and a strong hatch. So with this configuration they preserve Common Berthing Mechanism (2) and two International Docking Standards (2) as well as the Russian Orbital Segment with its four probe-drogue ports.

If everything works out with landing what happens to the first stage?

It'll be towed to harbor, not sure how long that will take because everything has to be safed. From JAX they'll bring it back to McGregor and refire. It depends on what they find, they'll first do an inspection of the vehicle to determine how reusable it truly is, and make modifications if needed.

Status of the Merlin 1D+s?

Tests are going well on the uprated engines, and so Flight 21 will have the upgrades most likely.

One second window, what happens if you miss it?

It's for rendezvous, so it has to have its velocity vector in the exact same plane. 7.8km/s velocity, so to move the inclination a bit uses a lot of propellent. So it needs to be short because Dragon can't use too much fuel. Missing by 10 seconds isn't that bad, 30 seconds would be worse, a minute would be bad. For Shuttle, 5 minute window, Soyuz, a 10 second window.

Regarding barge weather: what can we expect Sunday?

Isolated showers are possible, winds gusting ~20mph. 5-7ft seas, nothing is a constraint for landing. Maximum for ASDS is quite high. However, weather for launch is most important.

What's next after this mission? Jason-3 @ Vandy, what happens after?

Jason-3 first as you said, then SES-9 next, a GEO bird (standard launch profile). CRS-8 next, CRS-9 shortly after. Lots of launches later this year, will be very busy.

Cost of IDA?

Don't know the exact cost. The adapter wasn't as costly as a full system because it's just an adapter.

Two cargo missions after losing ORB-3: how much does this impact the desire for a 6-month supply padding?

SpaceX-7 will get close to the 6 months. 6 months isn't a requirement, just desirable. But by the end of the year, they want to be close to the 5-6 months that they prefer. Later on they'll get more. With ORB-3 and Progress anomaly, minimal research impact because of that long supply.

Challenges and concerns about bring F9 stage back into ASDS, especially considering Carnival Fascination?

Primary mission/secondary mission, again. I don't know much about it. Still, ASDS landing is quite critical in the long run.

"I'm sure we'll do it in a way that won't collide with cruise ships!"

Weather in Florida: this was selected for a few historical reasons, where would you move it if you could?

Hey, this isn't that bad! It's warm, which is ideal. Lightning remains a constant concern and hurricanes can be an issue sometimes, but cold temperatures can shut out most areas from consideration.

What is the max timeframe that you can determine when a launch will happen? What can go wrong?

They feel good for forecasting 3 to 5 days. Any longer is almost impossible to determine, but they can use climatology to determine good times if it's a year out or so, but it's still quite variable. So 3-5 days for actual weather, anything further is climatology.

What's the advantage/disadvantage of IDA vs docking? Also, you should be fine with ASDS as it's a tiny cruise ship?

Berthing allows for very large objects can help a lot. Docking is complex because you have to go straight in, so you can't go too fast but you can't go slowly either. Though docking now is very reliable, berthing is very simple because you kill your velocity at 10 meters away and then use the arm.

However, docking can be done in an automated fashion, berthing requires a human to control the arm. Docking helpful for Mars missions, whereas berthing currently requires humans.

SpaceX: do you do internships? Will you have opportunities for younger students as well? Refer to website if you're interested. Also, NASA has lots too!

Difficulties in installing IDA into Dragon?

There were none. Regarding adapter, it plays right in to ComCrew for Dragon 2, and I've been pushing for those external cargo in the trunk.

What's your anxiety level on each launch?

I'm still excited about launches, review data very carefully. Overall blood pressure has gone down over time, blood pressure on this launch is especially healthy.

I have no idea what the question was, and neither did the answerer.

IDA is an adapter because it's APAS on one side and IDS on the other. The future systems will not adapt but just be a full system. Androgynous systems work for any two vehicles, so IDS and APAS have a huge advantage in that respect.

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*Aqua*

*Aqua*

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Afaik all crafts which want to dock at the ISS are 'captured' with the arm. I believe the reason is that otherwise you need to use thrusters firing towards the station to slow down. Of course that's a bad idea.

I wonder if they grabbed the Space Shuttles too. They were quite heavy.

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