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Blue Origin Thread (merged)


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Wishing does not make it so. Seeing a shadowly object in a smoke cloud and saying it is UNMISTAKEABLE is like reading your horoscope and declaring you know what you'll have for breakfast next year. SpaceX and NASA would know if dragon had survived and they would have very gladly shared that information with glowing enthusiasm. It's time to move on, man.

SpaceX said during the conference that they continued receiving telemetry and information from Dragon after the event. That seems to mean that it did in fact, abort. At the end Gwynne even said it would have hypothetically saved astronauts today.

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they should send spacex a trophy for "the most Kerbal-ish Launch Failure in History"

Nope, that distinction still goes to Vanguard I:

https://youtu.be/zVeFkakURXM?t=25s

Conference is live.

-Station is fine, but a lot of important equipment lost on this flight. (Spacesuit, IDA, experiments, etc.)

Thanks, that was my next question... 3 resupply flight failures in a row now, that can't be good long term.

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Good call on the abort vs. survive, the language is key there.

Gwyneth was referring to Dragon V2's crew abort system. No one would have survived today.

Ah I must have taken that in the wrong context then.

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please, lets keep the "I hear from a friend" source rumors out of this discussion.

It is very relevant to this topic. You are free to ignore if you want to.

It goes without saying that it as of yet unconfirmed, but it'd be a very specific thing for America space to make up and hearing complimentary accounts from different sources adds weight to it.

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Sigh.. she said after the event, that doesn't mean after the entire destruction sequence. The "event" starts after the 1st anomalous gas expulsion; the rockets sensors would have been able to record and report this fact, and from this point on they were also still getting data from the 1st stage and the dragon module. They got data after the event, meaning it wasn't destroyed by the original event. It WAS destroyed, along with the rest of the rocket including the massive 1st stage, by the large angry fireball that enveloped the entire structure as the 2nd stage erupted after the tank failure.

No, that is not the Dragon falling back behind the rocket. 1st of all, I assume you have all played KSP at some point. What happens when you accidently decouple your capsule while the rocket is still going? It gets stuck on top until the rocket flips out and lets it fall away, right? There's no way an unpowered capsule to get out and away enough to then fall back beside the rocket and trail off behind the event. That's why crewed rockets have those massive escape towers, with thrusters that pull the capsule up and away in case this happens. No tower, no escape.

Watch the main video again from this time stamp: https://youtu.be/u5Nk3b42NkY?t=165

Pay special attention to the time period of 2:53 to 2:58. Notice how the object disappears even though it enters an area where the vapors are very light? There's no large capsule there, whatever it was, it was large enough to project a shadow onto the vapors while in line with the bright fire but insignificant enough to not be visible to the naked eye later on.

And then at the end of the video you can clearly see that nothing of significant size was left when the rocker finally came apart, it was violent enough to pulverize the entire rocket.

Including Dragon

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^Gotta say, Post proof or retract. Your reaching conclusions not supported by video or testimony. I'll trust Gwynn's comments over yours.

It is very relevant to this topic. You are free to ignore if you want to.

It goes without saying that it as of yet unconfirmed, but it'd be a very specific thing for America space to make up and hearing complimentary accounts from different sources adds weight to it.

Unless it's al heresy originating from the same source.

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Have you any experience with rockets that isn't in KSP, Tiberion? You're assuming the Dragon would stay attached when we know the second stage lost structural integrity, and assuming an explosion big enough to take out an empty tube of thin Al-Li alloy is certainly strong enough to destroy a reentry capsule.

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^Gotta say, Post proof or retract. Your reaching conclusions not supported by video or testimony. I'll trust Gwynn's comments over yours.

Unless it's al heresy originating from the same source.

Gwynn's comments match exactly what we see. The event refers to the initial overpressure, not the explosion. Dragon did survive the event, as did the rocket. It did not survive the explosion. The 'capsule' seen is a shadow projected onto the vapour cloud behind it. If Dragon had survived it would be visible in the wide the shots and it isn't.

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I've never had my top stage breech and crumble, like what happened here. If Dragon's side was directed into the airstream, its easy to see how it would get pushed to the side. Crew abort systems are there to pull the capsule away from a failing rocket, this 'method' would lead the capsule back into the hazard zone(look how close it comes to the engine exhaust!)

The 'object' goes off the screen... it never 'disappears'. Dragon itself is white as well, frankly its lucky that we see it at all. The video pulls back, the capsule is several hundred meters behind everything else, by the time the frame would re-encompass it, it's to small to see.

Then it falls the several thousand KM back to the water and is pulverized from the impact. RIP CRS-7/Dragon.

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Gwynn's comments match exactly what we see. The event refers to the initial overpressure, not the explosion. Dragon did survive the event, as did the rocket. It did not survive the explosion. The 'capsule' seen is a shadow projected onto the vapour cloud behind it. If Dragon had survived it would be visible in the wide the shots and it isn't.

Exactly, 100% right. Take your hand, hold it in front of a flashlight and shine it at a distant wall. Notice how your hand appears to be 10 feet long. Same effect.

Have you any experience with rockets that isn't in KSP, Tiberion? You're assuming the Dragon would stay attached when we know the second stage lost structural integrity, and assuming an explosion big enough to take out an empty tube of thin Al-Li alloy is certainly strong enough to destroy a reentry capsule.

I was using KSP as an example of the way inertia works. Its a common frame of reference we should all share since we presumably all play the game. But go ahead and try to embarrass me for some reason anyway, seems reasonable. Of all the people here, I would think you would be the least likely to believe dragon is make of unobtainium and is thus indestructible.

This is ridiculous; if it makes you guys happier to imagine a happy little dragon swimming away down there, go for it.

Zero. Visual. Evidence.

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What is even supposed to destroy it? There's no real explosion.

Really? What about the huge fireball from about 0:18 seconds onward in the slowmo video?

And then another explosion at 1:12-1:13 and then a big one at 1:25 from which nothing emerges but a rain of tiny pieces with vapor trails?

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This is ridiculous; if it makes you guys happier to imagine a happy little dragon swimming away down there, go for it.

Zero. Visual. Evidence.

Sigh, No One has claimed that it survived the impact with the water.

And that "big Explosion" takes place long after the possibly sighted capsule has left the area.

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Really? What about the huge fireball from about 0:18 seconds onward in the slowmo video?

And then another explosion at 1:12-1:13 and then a big one at 1:25 from which nothing emerges but a rain of tiny pieces with vapor trails?

Those are simply ruptures of the various tanks, with some flames due to mixing; mostly it's just LOX. Notice your 'huge fireball' at 0:18 doesn't visibly effect the first stage in any way.

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This is ridiculous; if it makes you guys happier to imagine a happy little dragon swimming away down there, go for it.

Zero. Visual. Evidence.

Actually, I think you're a bit ridiculous. I agree that we can't know for sure that the capsule separated safely from the rocket, but your claim seems to be that it couldn't possibly have done that, the evidence for that is also pretty weak. I think it's at least an interesting speculation, and I don't understand why it's so important to you to prove it wrong, even though you can't at the moment.

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