Red Dragon confirmed!!

[Darnok]

44 minutes ago, SargeRho said:

The MCT, which Musk said he'd reveal this summer, is a fully reusable architecture with the goal of transporting 100 tons to Mars per flight, The Red Dragon missions' purpose for SpaceX is to gather data for the development of the MCT, and they're bringing along some NASA instruments, for science and probably some funding.

Ok, I've missed this news... are there any technical data about this new craft?

[kerbiloid]

26 minutes ago, popeter45 said:

as far a we know the dragon capsule is exposed to the elements at launch and from that could bring bacteria to the surface of mars in a much higher quantity then any previous mission

So easily, one forum message has drawn a line under the longstanding efforts to send a spaceship to Mars in the foreseable future, revealing an obvious and thus unnoticed... 

[Nibb31]

Just now, Darnok said:

Ok, I've missed this news... are there any technical data about this new craft?

How can you have missed that ? No, there is nothing yet, not even powerpoint slides. It was supposed to be announced last year, but now it's september, or october, or 2017...

[Darnok]

Just now, kerbiloid said:

So easily, one forum message has drawn a line under the longstanding efforts to send a spaceship to Mars in the foreseable future, revealing an obvious and thus unnoticed... 

It is exposed on Falcon 9, but it can be under fairing on Falcon Heavy?

[kerbiloid]

4 minutes ago, Darnok said:

It is exposed on Falcon 9, but it can be under fairing on Falcon Heavy?

Nobody knows, I guess. But here is a picture. https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/05/falcon-heavy-dragon-solar-system-explorer/

 

Edited April 28, 2016 by kerbiloid

[Darnok]

3 minutes ago, kerbiloid said:

Nobody knows, I guess. But here is a picture. https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/05/falcon-heavy-dragon-solar-system-explorer/

 

This is just in section "promoting materials" not technical information

[kerbiloid]

4 minutes ago, Darnok said:

This is just in section "promoting materials" not technical information

Kind of that.

But as the Dragon uses its inner engines as LES, is there an option to launch dragons inside a shroud?

Edited April 28, 2016 by kerbiloid

[Nibb31]

Just now, kerbiloid said:

Kind of that.

But as the Dragon uses its inner engines as LES, whether there's an option to launch dragons inside a shroud?

This will be unmanned, so no need for a LES. Crewed Dragon to Mars is not going to happen.

[kerbiloid]

4 minutes ago, Nibb31 said:

This will be unmanned, so no need for a LES. Crewed Dragon to Mars is not going to happen.

Of course. But there is no need in shroud for a spacecraft designed to survive during the ascent without it.
And the shroud costs mass, while interplanetary trajectories cost speed. So, a shroud is a ballast.

Edited April 28, 2016 by kerbiloid

[Nibb31]

Sure, it costs, but if it's a requirement, then it has to be there.

However, I'm not sure that a payload fairing is enough to enforce planetary protection standards. Interplanetary payloads need to be packaged in a sterile white room (typically, the payload is encapsulated separately from the from the launch fairing. I'm not sure if SpaceX's payload processing facilities and procedures are compatible.

[Frozen_Heart]

1 hour ago, fredinno said:

...lol, and if SpaceX fails a publicity stunt Mars landing, it would be the greatest publicity failure in the history of mankind. It's not like a F9 core either, each launch costs ~500 Million. Elon can only fund so many, and I think he would only ever do it once. Not to mention SpaceX's failure will be well-ingrained in memory, as Mars Transfer windows go every 2 years or so.

A Falcon Heavy Launch does not cost 500 million. The listed price is 150 million. The Only Dragon 2 cost I can find is 160 million but that is fully crewed. But at 20 million per person that makes the Dragon 2 million unmanned.

Flight is likely to end up close to 200 million. This isn't the SLS or Saturn V that they're launching here. 

[Nibb31]

59 minutes ago, Frozen_Heart said:

A Falcon Heavy Launch does not cost 500 million. The listed price is 150 million. The Only Dragon 2 cost I can find is 160 million but that is fully crewed. But at 20 million per person that makes the Dragon 2 million unmanned.

Does not compute. Cost per seat is determined by the total cost, not the other way round. NASA is paying~$160 million for each Dragon 2 flight on a Falcon 9. A cargo Falcon 9 flight is supposed to be $60 million, so that puts the cost of a Dragon 2 spacecraft at $100 million. Manned or not makes no difference, and this is a specially-modified one-off with a lot of specific development, so is likely to be more expensive.

Quote

Flight is likely to end up close to 200 million. This isn't the SLS or Saturn V that they're launching here. 

So stick a Dragon 2 on top of a Falcon Heavy, and you get $100 + $150 million. Add development cost for modifications (solar panels, navigation and long range comms systems, landing software, mission planning and simulation, planetary protection, new trunk, etc...) and you'll be way beyond $300 million before you even add any actual science equipment. I'd say a total mission cost of $500 isn't far off the mark.

 

Edited April 28, 2016 by Nibb31

[Jovus]

I want to see the Falcon Heavy fly to orbit first before we talk about it sending stuff to Mars. Paper rockets are nice; they never develop problems that delay production or launch schedules or require a vehicle redesign.

[KSK]

2 hours ago, Streetwind said:

Here is an actual primary source for the "no money changed hands" claim that spaceflightnow reported on. Quoting the relevant paragraph:

"Among the many exciting things we’re doing with American businesses, we’re particularly excited about an upcoming SpaceX project that would build upon a current 'no-exchange-of-funds' agreement we have with the company. In exchange for Martian entry, descent, and landing data from SpaceX, NASA will offer technical support for the firm’s plan to attempt to land an uncrewed Dragon 2 spacecraft on Mars."

This also sheds a bit of light about what science payloads will fly on this mission: basically, none. At least no official NASA ones. The Dragon V2 itself *is* the science payload.

*snip*

This makes sense to me, given that NASA have reportedly worked with SpaceX before on supersonic retropropulsive maneuvers. Any additional science payload they can build in time would be a bonus.

A SpaceX stunt? I disagree. Or rather - yes it will be a great piece of PR if they pull it off but it also has the rather more serious purpose of giving them an opportunity for them to gain experience with most of the elements involved in getting to Mars and getting something useful to the surface in future. As others have pointed out, they still have plenty to work on for deep-space operations.

[PB666]

4 minutes ago, KSK said:

This makes sense to me, given that NASA have reportedly worked with SpaceX before on supersonic retropropulsive maneuvers. Any additional science payload they can build in time would be a bonus.

A SpaceX stunt? I disagree. Or rather - yes it will be a great piece of PR if they pull it off but it also has the rather more serious purpose of giving them an opportunity for them to gain experience with most of the elements involved in getting to Mars and getting something useful to the surface in future. As others have pointed out, they still have plenty to work on for deep-space operations.

Well nasa has done a crane landing and two inflatable bouncy ball landings. they want to have an inflatble low atmosphere drag shield but that is currently not working out fir them in testing. Thus it is science of a sort to do a fire retro landing. It kind of reminds me of Mech Jebs lander though. Anyway theres two years to add small sciens packages if they like. Might i recommend a small tethered crawler. Just land at the beagle site and pull open the solar panels for the brits, then give it a booster cable. 

[sevenperforce]

4 hours ago, Nibb31 said:

I think that if you want to get 4-tons of payload to the surface of Mars, there are much better ways than to hack a crew vehicle.

You would be far better off with a specialized vehicle. You only need the heatshield and the SuperDracos. Pretty much all the rest of the vehicle is wasted mass and limits the capabilities. You would be better off without the pressure vessel and aeroshell in the first place. That would allow you to add as much science equipment as you want, solar panels, and ever deploy rovers. And in the end, you would end up with a lander that looks like Viking or MPL.

The only advantage of Red Dragon compared to a SuperDraco-derived specialized lander is PR. It makes the false pretense that Dragon could be used to send people to Mars, which it most certainly can't, at least not on its own, and not with any return capability.

This is going to require a Falcon Heavy at least, probably with the Raptor upper-stage, and a Dragon V2, none of which have flown yet. The Dragon is going to need a lot of modifications, including navigation systems (currently GPS-based). And there is also the planetary protection problem that popeter45 evoked and will probably make it a non-starter when NASA gets involved.

Dragon V2 can absolutely be placed on a Martian aerobraking transfer trajectory by Falcon Heavy, without the need for a Raptor upper stage. I ran the numbers and it's well within margins. 

V2 isn't primarily a crew capsule; it's primarily a lander. It's designed with broad enough margins to land propulsively on Earth, the moon, Mars, or most other worlds with only minor modifications. I'm sure this will be the unpressurized variant. The aeroshell is pretty important, though. 

2 hours ago, Jovus said:

I want to see the Falcon Heavy fly to orbit first before we talk about it sending stuff to Mars. Paper rockets are nice; they never develop problems that delay production or launch schedules or require a vehicle redesign.

Falcon Heavy is not exactly a paper rocket. Falcon 9 has flown enough times that we can readily identify the performance range of FH.

[cantab]

4 hours ago, Nibb31 said:

You would be far better off with a specialized vehicle. You only need the heatshield and the SuperDracos. Pretty much all the rest of the vehicle is wasted mass and limits the capabilities. You would be better off without the pressure vessel and aeroshell in the first place. That would allow you to add as much science equipment as you want, solar panels, and ever deploy rovers. And in the end, you would end up with a lander that looks like Viking or MPL.

And it's a customised one-off thing with all the extra R&D and manufacturing expenses that entails. SpaceX's approach is mass production.

[Nibb31]

36 minutes ago, sevenperforce said:

Dragon V2 can absolutely be placed on a Martian aerobraking transfer trajectory by Falcon Heavy, without the need for a Raptor upper stage. I ran the numbers and it's well within margins. 

V2 isn't primarily a crew capsule; it's primarily a lander. It's designed with broad enough margins to land propulsively on Earth, the moon, Mars, or most other worlds with only minor modifications. I'm sure this will be the unpressurized variant. The aeroshell is pretty important, though. 

"the" unpressurized variant ? That would require a whole new design. I'm pretty sure that most of the equipment is designed with air cooling in mind and isn't vacuum hardened.

3 minutes ago, cantab said:

And it's a customised one-off thing with all the extra R&D and manufacturing expenses that entails. SpaceX's approach is mass production.

It's already a custom design. Any resemblance between a vehicle designed for landing on Mars and a crew capsule is superficial.

 

[tater]

Regarding planetary protection... what would happen on any (distant) manned Mars landing? If someone coughs while suiting up is going on (even assuming the suits were isolated from the crew cabin before that process) then that's contamination, as would be just exposing the suits to the crew cabin. 

Honestly, it seems to me once people are involved contamination needs to be assumed.

[kerbiloid]

9 minutes ago, Nibb31 said:

I'm pretty sure that most of the equipment is designed with air cooling in mind and isn't vacuum hardened.

Sorry, but how then they intend to get out for EVA? Probably, there is no airlock chamber.

[AngelLestat]

6 hours ago, fredinno said:

You need a new propusion system because you are using a new fuel. Should be fairly obvious.

You probably also need new tanks that are larger, since CH4 is less dense than hypergol.

Why they need ch4 or change the engines to make an ISRU experiment? Read again my post please:

 

Quote

...I've been over this. How big can you buid a solar panel out of a hatch? Considering everything else will likely have to use the same hatch,you're severely limited in capability.

The solar panel could be very big if that is your intention, but there is no need, this opportunity could be used to make a small scale ISRU experiment, after all they will announce MCT plans for september, so it will be useful to gather some data on ISRU before start with the final design.   

Quote

...lol, and if SpaceX fails a publicity stunt Mars landing, it would be the greatest publicity failure in the history of mankind. It's not like a F9 core either, each launch costs ~500 Million. Elon can only fund so many, and I think he would only ever do it once. Not to mention SpaceX's failure will be well-ingrained in memory, as Mars Transfer windows go every 2 years or so.

why a failure should stop someone?  Elon had 3 big failures before achieve orbit for the first time. Now he is on the top because failures are just experiences that help you to improve your design. Also big accomplishments require risk, the great steps of humanity were taken by people willing to face the risks. NASA should take note.
But well, now we know how much you wish spacex fails in everything they do just to hold to your initial posture.

6 hours ago, Streetwind said:

This also sheds a bit of light about what science payloads will fly on this mission: basically, none. At least no official NASA ones. The Dragon V2 itself *is* the science payload.

This does not sheds light, they just give that detail, I am sure that some science beyond the landing will be performed.

Quote

SpaceX isn't going to Mars without NASA, or in competition with NASA, but rather as a collaborative effort; and b.) NASA stands to gain just as much from this partnership as SpaceX does, getting access to new technologies and capabilities that fill gaps in the agency's own. Mark my words: I will buy a hat for the express purpose of eating it if the first MCT flight isn't a NASA mission!

That is what I am saying since a lot, but as always it rained criticism. Now we are seeing the first steps in that direction.

5 hours ago, Nibb31 said:

You would be far better off with a specialized vehicle. You only need the heatshield and the SuperDracos. Pretty much all the rest of the vehicle is wasted mass and limits the capabilities. You would be better off without the pressure vessel and aeroshell in the first place. That would allow you to add as much science equipment as you want, solar panels, and ever deploy rovers. And in the end, you would end up with a lander that looks like Viking or MPL.

they have already this dragonv2 design (so they save most of the development for a new vehicle) that looks very similar to what they really need to land big payloads, with their draco engines shielded and able to fire at the same time that is performing aerobraking.
But the amount of deltav of dragonv2 is not enough, so I imagine they will add an extra tank inside the vehicle.
They can remove the docking port in the top, and add special parachutes or solar panels to be deploy it under the cone.

Quote

The only advantage of Red Dragon compared to a SuperDraco-derived specialized lander is PR. It makes the false pretense that Dragon could be used to send people to Mars, which it most certainly can't, at least not on its own, and not with any return capability.

No.. this work for nasa and spacex to learn how to land heavy payloads on mars, also spacex could perform extra experiments to gather data for its MCT plans.

Quote

I don't buy the 2018 date. SpaceX hardly ever delivers on-time. They regularly throw out ideas and abandon them when they figure out that it's going to be harder than they thought, or they lose focus as they turn to some other of Musk's crazy ideas or get forced back into the reality of their customer backlog.

NASA delivers on time?  SLS, James web telescope?
They accomplish its main idea of recover a first state (in sea and ground), they give up with the second stage recovery in the falcon9 but now they are even adding faring recovery.  So not sure why you still think they have crazy ideas with all the things they already accomplish from day 1.  

Edited April 28, 2016 by AngelLestat

[CatastrophicFailure]

3 hours ago, PB666 said:

Just land at the beagle site and pull open the solar panels for the brits, then give it a booster cable. 

I had exactly the same thought. They've touted the precision landing capability of the design, we know where most of the failed missions are, so land near by, plop down a rover, and go examine one! 

 

1 hour ago, cantab said:

And it's a customised one-off thing...

I think the word you're looking for here is "prototype"  The first flight may be a custom one-off thing, but it's intended that many similar ones will follow...

[Oafman]

I'm most interested and surprised by the discussion about a follow up surface-sample-return mission, as early as 2022 (i'll eat my trousers if that timeline is met).

 

"The researchers have drawn up a plan that uses a modified version of SpaceX's uncrewed Dragon cargo capsule"

Modified....?

"The Red Dragon variant would include a robotic arm, extra fuel tanks and a central tube that houses a rocket-powered Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) and an Earth Return Vehicle (ERV)."

I mean, that's surely beyond 'modified' and into the realms of 'a completely new craft' isn't it?

From this article, last year

[sevenperforce]

1 hour ago, Nibb31 said:

2 hours ago, sevenperforce said:

V2 isn't primarily a crew capsule; it's primarily a lander. It's designed with broad enough margins to land propulsively on Earth, the moon, Mars, or most other worlds with only minor modifications. I'm sure this will be the unpressurized variant. The aeroshell is pretty important, though. 

"the" unpressurized variant ? That would require a whole new design. I'm pretty sure that most of the equipment is designed with air cooling in mind and isn't vacuum hardened.

The Dragon 1 already has the option of flying pressurized or unpressurized (final bullet, page 6 here). The Dragon V2 will have the same capability: it can fly with unpressurized cargo, pressurized cargo, or pressurized with crew. Page 5 of the House Subcommittee Statement by Garrett Reisman states, "Crew Dragon carries sufficient breathable gas stores to allow for a safe return to Earth in the event of a leak of up to an equivalent orifice of 0.25 inches in diameter. As an extra level of protection, the crew will wear SpaceX-designed spacesuits to protect them from a rapid cabin depressurization emergency event of even greater severity. The suits and the vehicle itself will be rated for operation at vacuum." So yeah, it's vacuum-hardened already.

Like I said, Dragon V2 is over-designed for these express purposes. It will not need substantial redesign for its Martian debut.

16 minutes ago, Oafman said:

I'm most interested and surprised by the discussion about a follow up surface-sample-return mission, as early as 2022 (i'll eat my trousers if that timeline is met).

"The researchers have drawn up a plan that uses a modified version of SpaceX's uncrewed Dragon cargo capsule"

Modified....?

"The Red Dragon variant would include a robotic arm, extra fuel tanks and a central tube that houses a rocket-powered Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) and an Earth Return Vehicle (ERV)."

I mean, that's surely beyond 'modified' and into the realms of 'a completely new craft' isn't it?

From this article, last year

Well, it would be a completely new craft inside the Dragon body to be sure, but the Dragon V2 itself would still be substantially the same.

I wonder if adding vacuum nozzle extensions to the SuperDracos would boost its isp enough to give it Martian SSTO capability with expanded internal auxiliary tanks.

[Oafman]

24 minutes ago, sevenperforce said:

Well, it would be a completely new craft inside the Dragon body to be sure, but the Dragon V2 itself would still be substantially the same.

I wonder if adding vacuum nozzle extensions to the SuperDracos would boost its isp enough to give it Martian SSTO capability with expanded internal auxiliary tanks.

I'm no engineer, but I would have thought that adding a rocket which launches out of the middle of the Dragon would be such a huge change to the original craft, that it would be inaccurate to describe it as a modified version of the same. 

 

As for the SSTO, apparently low Mars orbit requires 4.1km/s Deltav from the surface. I can't see how the Dragon could ever manage that, along with sufficient TWR, even if you filled the whole thing with fuel.