Weather Chat Megathread

[ProtoJeb21]

7 hours ago, SaturnianBlue said:

@ProtoJeb21 It's official—Aletta has undergone rapid intensification to become at Category 2 hurricane. Look like it has a serious shot at major hurricane status in the next day before it starts hitting cooler waters.

To quote the NHC:

The chance of a another 20-kt
increase in the next 12 hours is just under 50 percent, so it's not
out of the question that Aletta could reach major hurricane
strength on Friday.

The invest behind is slowly becoming more likely to develop.

And now it’s a Category 3 hurricane and could become a Category 4. Looks like those forecasts for a major hurricane from a few days ago were right. 

[ProtoJeb21]

@SaturnianBlue According to Tropical Tidbits, Hurricane Aletta has lived up to my original predictions and has reached Category 4 intensity, with winds of 140 mph (120 kt) and a pressure of about 943 mbar. In terms of central pressure it’s now the strongest Pacific hurricane since Hurricane Seymour in November 2016.

Edited June 8, 2018 by ProtoJeb21

[ProtoJeb21]

Invest-92E (future Bud) is just about to develop into a tropical depression. Convection has flared up even more, the center is becoming better defined, and the NHC has noted that if this trend continues the low pressure system will develop into a tropical cyclone by tonight. Winds are currently at 35 mph. 

[ProtoJeb21]

And now 92E is Tropical Depression 3-E. That was quick. 

[SaturnianBlue]

Aletta has weakened as quickly as it strengthened—it has had much of its convection stripped off, leaving an exposed core.

Tropical Depression 3-E (which is unofficially Bud, according to Tropical Tidbits) is already forecast to be a Category 2 storm, and given what happened to Aletta, it seems like there's room for it to go even higher, especially since it already appears to be rapidly intensifying. It's definitely a storm worth watching for, considering it is traveling towards Baja California.

In the Atlantic, there is nothing of note in the forecast. However, the GFS has consistently predicted a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico for the past few days, that will approach the US coast in about a week from now. A week is too early for any real confidence, and the ECMWF (the other forecast model considered reliable) has practically no indication of any storm. However, what the GFS does predict is very concerning if it pans out, taking a hurricane (in the various model runs ranging from 948 mb to 979 mb) into anywhere from Texas (especially areas hit by Harvey) to Louisiana.

Edited June 10, 2018 by SaturnianBlue

[ProtoJeb21]

11 hours ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Aletta has weakened as quickly as it strengthened—it has had much of its convection stripped off, leaving an exposed core.

Tropical Depression 3-E (which is unofficially Bud, according to Tropical Tidbits) is already forecast to be a Category 2 storm, and given what happened to Aletta, it seems like there's room for it to go even higher, especially since it already appears to be rapidly intensifying. It's definitely a storm worth watching for, considering it is traveling towards Baja California.

In the Atlantic, there is nothing of note in the forecast. However, the GFS has consistently predicted a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico for the past few days, that will approach the US coast in about a week from now. A week is too early for any real confidence, and the ECMWF (the other forecast model considered reliable) has practically no indication of any storm. However, what the GFS does predict is very concerning if it pans out, taking a hurricane (in the various model runs ranging from 948 mb to 979 mb) into anywhere from Texas (especially areas hit by Harvey) to Louisiana.

It’s always surprising to me how quickly powerful hurricanes in the East Pacific are ripped apart by wind shear and cool ocean temperatures. 

3E is now Bud, and while the NHC forecast has downgraded its predicted peak intensity, it looks like the storm is preparing to rapidly intensify. Bud has an enormous collection of symmetrical convection, and it’s in waters with temperatures around 30 degrees Celsius. The GFS model is predicting it to rapidly intensify into a ~940 mbar Category 4 storm by midday tomorrow. Since that model was pretty good at predicting what happened with Hurricane Aletta, I’m inclined to believe its predictions for Tropical Storm Bud are also accurate. 

That “Future Beryl” the GFS model keeps forecasting can also be seen in a few other models. I don’t trust the ones that give it a max intensity of a Cat 3 or 4 storm; a Cat 1 or 2 at the most seems more likely. However, a few runs with the GFS model do predict Future Beryl stalling somewhere in the Gulf, which would allow additional intensification that is harder to predict at this time. Unfortunately, one of the places it’s been predicted to stall around is coastal Texas, near where Hurricane Harvey struck in August/September. 

[ProtoJeb21]

According to Tropical Tidbits, Bud has now hit hurricane strength and is starting to form an eye. It could be starting a phase of rapid intensification. 

[ProtoJeb21]

Hurricane Bud is now a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane. For some reason, Tropical Tidbits is actually behind on its updates instead of ahead of the NHC, which is annoying. They still haven’t updated to the latest NHC report. Based on satellite imagery of Bud, it has a ring of tall powerful thunderstorms around a forming eye, which - along with outflow and a symmetrical conevctive structure - suggests the storm could be gearing up for a phase of rapid intensification. I won’t put my bets on it, though. 

[XB-70A]

I just made a small .gif with different image took by GOES-R during the last 72 hours, Bud's degradation is easily noticeable:

Edited June 13, 2018 by XB-70A
Dumb mistake: GOES-R, not -S...

[ProtoJeb21]

Oh look, Tropical Depression 4-E has formed. This EPac season is getting off to a pretty active start this year. 

[XB-70A]

33 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Oh look, Tropical Depression 4-E has formed. This EPac season is getting off to a pretty active start this year. 

Doesn't smells good for the Atlantic season too. Temperatures raised back quickly this year, this usually announces a larger number of "natural radiators".

Just in the northern hemisphere we already got 19 active systems in 2018.

[ProtoJeb21]

7 minutes ago, XB-70A said:

Doesn't smells good for the Atlantic season too. Temperatures raised back quickly this year, this usually announces a larger number of "natural radiators".

Just in the northern hemisphere we already got 19 active systems in 2018.

I think it’s too early to tell for sure. June is always pretty slow for the Atlantic basin, and July has been as well over the last two years. We likely have to wait until August to truly see where the Atlantic season is heading. 

[ProtoJeb21]

The Eastern Pacific appears to be heading into another active phase. Three areas are currently being monitored by the NHC for tropical development. The furthest one from land is getting better organized and is expected to become a tropical depression or storm between tonight and tomorrow morning. Based on current GFS models, it looks like this will be nothing more than a moderate open-ocean tropical storm. The next area of low pressure has a medium chance of developing over the next several days, but is more likely to interact or be engulfed by the third area of interest. It too has a low chance of development...for now at least. It is expected to move into conductive waters by mid-week and probably become something there. 

[SaturnianBlue]

Tropical Storm Daniel has come and is about to go, while the two disturbances following Daniel both are almost certain to become tropical cyclones, with the first expected to form in the next 48 hours. It seems that these two storms are likely to be another duo of extremely powerful storms like Aletta and Bud.

[ProtoJeb21]

Tropical Storm Daniel formed the other day and isn’t worth keeping an eye on. It’ll be gone by noon. However, two other areas of low pressure have 90% chances of developing between mid-week and the weekend. The first may become a strong tropical storm or a weak Category 1 hurricane, while the second will be in more favorable environments and could become another major hurricane. 

EDIT: Ninja’d

EDIT 2: Forgot to mention that the GFS models suggest that another topical cyclone could form behind the second area of low pressure towards the second half of next week. 

Edited June 26, 2018 by ProtoJeb21

[SaturnianBlue]

Seems like the storm in the East Pacific are going to be less intense than might have ben initially expected. Emilia is only forecast to hit mid-TS strength, and the disturbance following Emilia is taking quite a while to form—less time for it to strengthen before it strikes cooler waters.

[ProtoJeb21]

22 hours ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Seems like the storm in the East Pacific are going to be less intense than might have ben initially expected. Emilia is only forecast to hit mid-TS strength, and the disturbance following Emilia is taking quite a while to form—less time for it to strengthen before it strikes cooler waters.

Yeah, I doubt Future Fabio will make it past Category 1 strength. The low pressure area that’ll form behind it also is looking less likely to become something major. 

[ProtoJeb21]

Tropical Depression 7-E has formed in the Pacific behind Tropical Depression Emilia and is predicted by the NHC to reach Category 2 intensity. If it gains the name Fabio today/tonight, it would mean that SIX named storms formed within June in the East Pacific season. That is quite impressive. Compare that to last year’s two named June storms and 2016’s zero named June storms. 

Edited June 30, 2018 by ProtoJeb21

[ProtoJeb21]

The GFS models for the West Pacific are...concerning. They suggest that Tropical Storm Prapiroon could undergo rapid or explosive intensification, potentially becoming a Category 4 equivalent Typhoon by Tuesday with a minimum pressure of 940 mbar. And it’s heading right for Korea. The GFS models suggest it may strike as the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane. Meanwhile, another typhoon could develop starting sometime next week and may reach Category 5 intensity later on before striking China or Taiwan. However, the GFS models usually overestimate storm strength this far out, so we’ll just have to wait and see, but it’s definitely something to keep an eye on. 

[SaturnianBlue]

@ProtoJeb21The ECMWF is noticeably milder—more of a category 1/2 typhoon forecast for Prapiroon, and a 948 mb storm striking the Philippines. Over in the Eastern Pacific, Fabio has already become a 50 mph tropical storm and the NCH predicts a peak of 110 knots. It appears Category 4 might be back on the table...

[ProtoJeb21]

1 hour ago, SaturnianBlue said:

@ProtoJeb21The ECMWF is noticeably milder—more of a category 1/2 typhoon forecast for Prapiroon, and a 948 mb storm striking the Philippines. Over in the Eastern Pacific, Fabio has already become a 50 mph tropical storm and the NCH predicts a peak of 110 knots. It appears Category 4 might be back on the table...

It may even hit Category 5 status. The most recent GFS model predicts it undergoing explosive intensification and bottoming out at around 910 mbar by Wednesday. Since these models have pretty good accuracy within 3-4 days, I think Fabio has a good chance of reaching this intensity, or at least close to it. 

[cubinator]

It rained today.

[qzgy]

why is it so warm......

Yesterday temperatures were like 34 C. And also a bit on the muggy side.

[ProtoJeb21]

Hurricane Fabio is apparently having some trouble intensifying in the East Pacific. However, I’ve noticed some changes as it’s reached Category 2 strength. The storm is becoming more symmetrical and circular with good outflow and a forming eye structure. These are signs of rapid intensification that I noticed with both Hurricane Aletta and Hurricane Bud. Fabio could rapidly intensify into yet another Categroy 4, but we’ll just have to wait and see. 

Meanwhile, I’ve been traveling along the northern US East Coast, and it’s in the middle of a giant heat wave. My observations from a few states are below. 

Connecticut: If it wasn’t 100 degrees (Fahrenheit) outside with a heat index of over 107 F, it would be pretty nice.

New York: Wasn’t in it long enough to get any good observations.

New Jersey: Thank goodness for ocean breezes...kinda. It barely helps lower the heat index below 100 F.

Pennsylvania: No ocean breeze to help. Bummer  

Delaware: Temp of ~90 F, feels like ~110 F,  also feels like agony. Not a fun state to travel through vertically.

Maryland: Corn, corn, corn, and more corn. Also really hot. 

Virginia/Chincoteague Island: Like a giant sauna there - so much moisture and humidity in the air that everything fogged up or started accumulating water droplets. 

[LordFerret]

It's hot. Like, really hot. Like...