Weather Chat Megathread

[tater]

2 hours ago, XB-70A said:

Now, the NHC and the NOAA models are closer to the GFS predictions than the ECMWF ones, so... 

Yeah, but where are YOU? I'll root for it to miss you (not that it will help).

 

[ZooNamedGames]

This is not how I wanted to spend my first holiday off from school. Preparing for a hurricane. Just my luck. 

[adsii1970]

10 minutes ago, ZooNamedGames said:

This is not how I wanted to spend my first holiday off from school. Preparing for a hurricane. Just my luck. 

It could be worse. I once lived on the Louisiana Gulf Coast and from what the news media has said, this one isn't going to be very big. It will probably peak at a Category 2 or maybe even a 3 later this evening, depending on its course. Living in a hurricane zone, I always had most of the prep work done and maintained throughout the year:

• Gas generator for power when the power goes out.
• At least 30 gallons of gas for the generator (and car, if needed).
• Food supplies/emergency rations for ten days
• About 40 gallons of fresh water
• 4 big propane tanks for the grill, lanterns, etc.
• Flashlights and lots of batteries
• $300 in cash.

Sure, as the storm approached, there was the four hour job of securing the backyard items which could fly around at 50+ mph, taping and boarding of the windows, and all that kind of stuff. But then again, storms never have bothered me. I much rather prepare for a hurricane - which you know is coming - than to be caught off-guard by an earthquake.

+++

Relating to the regional weather where I live -

We've had more rain this year than normal, in the 18 inch range (0.457 meters). We've also only had three days where the actual temperature reached 95° to 100° F (35° C to 37.77° C) range. This makes our summer milder and wetter than normal. The older generation, those 70 and above, are claiming we are in for a wet, snowy, and cold winter. I sure hope so. I love winter weather.

[ZooNamedGames]

1 minute ago, adsii1970 said:

It could be worse. I once lived on the Louisiana Gulf Coast and from what the news media has said, this one isn't going to be very big. It will probably peak at a Category 2 or maybe even a 3 later this evening, depending on its course. Living in a hurricane zone, I always had most of the prep work done and maintained throughout the year:

• Gas generator for power when the power goes out.
• At least 30 gallons of gas for the generator (and car, if needed).
• Food supplies/emergency rations for ten days
• About 40 gallons of fresh water
• 4 big propane tanks for the grill, lanterns, etc.
• Flashlights and lots of batteries
• $300 in cash.

Sure, as the storm approached, there was the four hour job of securing the backyard items which could fly around at 50+ mph, taping and boarding of the windows, and all that kind of stuff. But then again, storms never have bothered me. I much rather prepare for a hurricane - which you know is coming - than to be caught off-guard by an earthquake.

+++

Relating to the regional weather where I live -

We've had more rain this year than normal, in the 18 inch range (0.457 meters). We've also only had three days where the actual temperature reached 95° to 100° F (35° C to 37.77° C) range. This makes our summer milder and wetter than normal. The older generation, those 70 and above, are claiming we are in for a wet, snowy, and cold winter. I sure hope so. I love winter weather.

Well unlike most- I have a bunch of animals that I need to relocate into our house for safety. So it's more than just securing yard stuff sadly. 

[XB-70A]

56 minutes ago, tater said:

Yeah, but where are YOU? I'll root for it to miss you (not that it will help).

 

Now? In Palm Bay, right at the "best" location possible: if Dorian pass over CC, we got the rain and some bursts, if south of Okeechobee, we got less rain but most of the wind  

 

Also, apart from some "hurricane-rookies", everybody is rather quiet around here.

[Dan Kerman]

Just got back from a week in the Cayman Islands scuba diving...  guess we timed that just right..  flew thru Ft Lauderdale the other day. Hope all my Fla peeps are safe this weekend.

 

[tater]

 

[ZooNamedGames]

Predicted to become Cat 4 by landfall. Slated for arrival on Tuesday/Wednesday. 

Oh and photo is from GOES -East Full Color CONUS. 

[Just Jim]

On 8/29/2019 at 1:13 PM, ZooNamedGames said:

This is not how I wanted to spend my first holiday off from school. Preparing for a hurricane. Just my luck. 

I hear ya... my B-day is Tuesday... same day it's suppose to hit us... go figure...

Stay safe, my friend!!! 

[ZooNamedGames]

Just now, Just Jim said:

I hear ya... my B-day is Tuesday... same day it's suppose to hit us... go figure...

Stay safe, my friend!!! 

And you too my fellow Floridian friend!

[razark]

We on the Texas coast would like to thank our Floridians for taking this hurricane.  Please feel free to keep it.  There's no need to let it pass through into the Gulf.

 

 

And good luck, guys.  Let us know when you get the power back on.

[StrandedonEarth]

Best wishes for all you Kerbals hunkering down in Florida.

Meanwhile, on the Wet Coast, after a week of blazing hot weather after a mostly lacklustre summer, we head into a long weekend punctuated by showers. Right when we’re going camping.... If you can call sleeping in a travel trailer camping....

[YNM]

Anyone in the area, please stay safe.

The trace so far :

[tater]

 

Might also hit FL and sort of do the same thing.

[XB-70A]

Here is an animated estimation of the trajectory by the ECMWF.

 

[tater]

The NHC has it hitting south, then driving up the coast (onshore) as a hurricane. Yuck.

[XB-70A]

No update about the intensity for the last 2 hours and still Cat 3, but right now the eye is perfectly shaped.

50 minutes ago:

 

20 minutes ago:

(Both shot by GOES-16)

 

Compilation of different data and false colors:

 

 

Sustained wind of around 120 km/h (approx 65 kt) and bursts of more than 200 (108 kt) according to the last ECMWF report.

 

 

The NRL is also sharing a potential trajectory which agrees with one of the European models:

 

 

Finally, a slightly unusual shot:

Taken almost 6 hours ago JPSS-2 on its polar orbit.

[XB-70A]

Also, I know I shared those link by the past, but if you are interested in completing your meteorological data collection, I recommend taking a look at the pages of the Colorado State University  in cooperation with the NOAA and the Japan Meteorological Agency at this address: 

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu

 

You can access a lot of data from GOES-16 (Atlantic shores of the Americas), GOES-17 (Pacific shores of the Americas), Himawari 8 (West Pacific ocean), and JPSS-2 (Arctic), and easily.

 

Slightly more complicated to navigate, but pretty interesting too, is the Naval Research Laboratory section dedicated to weather:

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

 

Their pages are full of data, often incomplete (because taken at short intervals) but still interesting.

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Edit

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Well... here we go:

Edited August 31, 2019 by XB-70A

[Silavite]

I'm surprised that no one has posted any of Levi Cowan's videos yet. His analyses are excellent.

 

[tater]

 

[YNM]

Careful everyone, another one is in the pipeline...

[XB-70A]

Just now, YNM said:

Careful everyone, another one is in the pipeline...

 

Yep, the Euro service is showing it as a potential active cell since the last two days; it could head on a Northern trajectory. Another cell is preceding it, however. 

 

[YNM]

1 hour ago, XB-70A said:

Another cell is preceding it, however. 

One lows often pull the others... I think Dorian might be pulled off the coast, but we'll see what else they could bring. The high pressure on the continent helps slightly.

 

I know for Typhoon Krosa the remnant of Typhoon Lekima pulled it in for a certain path.

Edited August 31, 2019 by YNM

[XB-70A]

Latest NHC map agrees with the ECMWF model:

 

Most recent shots by GOES-16:

 

[tater]

 

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots