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Weather Chat Megathread


ProtoJeb21

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We got whacked with over a foot of snow last night, a wet and heavy snow. A lot of trees down (mother nature's method of trimming out the weak), and a lot of towns in our county without power. My power went out for 5 hours, but it was due to crews trying to fix line problems caused by downed trees. I'll say one thing... it was picture-postcard beautiful this morning when I woke up. :cool:

 

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25 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Tropical Cyclone Marcus is pretty harmless but Tropical Cyclone Nora is expected to reach Category 4 on the Saffir Simpson scale before making landfall in Northern Australia as the equivalent of a minimal hurricane.

I think it may strengthen even more than what is currently predicted. Sea surface temperatures near Nora and throughout all of its projected path are extremely high at 29 C to 30 C, excellent for tropical cyclone growth. While there isn’t a whole lot of space for Nora, it isn’t moving that fast, which may allow it to soak up more tropical moisture. The good news is that Nora is unlikely to reach the same intensity as Marcus, which became the tenth strongest Australian tropical cyclone on record with a minimum pressure of 914 mbar (same as Irma, but with 160 mph winds instead of 180-185 mph).

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UPDATE: Cyclone Nora appears to be undergoing rapid intensification. Its winds have rapidly increased from 65 kt (75 mph) early this morning to 95 kt (110 mph) as of 10:00 am EST. Its original forecasts predicted that it wouldn’t reach Category 2 intensity until significantly later in the day. 

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9 minutes ago, YNM said:

What is it with the errors in predicting strength ? Can't we all just assume the worst or somesuch ?

Rapid intensification is really hard to predict. The issue with assuming the worst is that it risks giving the impression of being alarmist, especially if the storm isn't that bad, so people may not heed warnings if a storm really is bad as expected.

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Are there a list of every climate station around the world ? (would be better if someone knows for my area, Java Island)

I had an assignment that requires daily temperature and humidity data, but the placement of the station isn't too good compared to the area I was assigned to.

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Somehow, Tropical Storm Jelawat underwent explosive intensification today. It had winds of about 75-90 mph, but within 12 hours it has intensified into a 150 mph Super Typhoon, and it isn’t showing any signs of stopping.

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Sunday: clear with a chance of space station debris. (Not really, as I don't live under the station's path but I'm near enough to it's highest latitude that I could see it go down.)

Edited by cubinator
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21 hours ago, Ultimate Steve said:

*Beginning of April*

*Snows*

*Accumulates*

Yep. School was cancelled on Easter Monday (April 2nd). Originally it was just a delay, but the snow wouldn’t stop so they cancelled school altogether.

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On 4/5/2018 at 10:28 AM, Ultimate Steve said:

*Beginning of April*

*Snows*

*Accumulates*

Oh yeah we had a bit of snow here as well.

Was too warm and melted eventually though. Sister and I were on break though so nothing happened.

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HATE rapid temperature changes. About a week ago it was pretty cold but i think since Friday, the temperature went straight to 17C. When does mother nature slow down a bit and let us adapt?

Edited by NSEP
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adapt
əˈdapt/
verb
 
  1. make (something) suitable for a new use or purpose; modify.
    "hospitals have had to be adapted for modern medical practice"
    synonyms: modify, alter, make alterations to, change, adjust, make adjustments to, convert, transform, redesign, restyle, refashion, remodel, reshape, revamp, rework, redo, reconstruct, reorganize; More
     
     
     
     
       
    • become adjusted to new conditions.
      "a large organization can be slow to adapt to change"
      synonyms: adjust, acclimatize, accommodate, attune, habituate, acculturate, conform; More
       
       
       
       
       
    • alter (a text) to make it suitable for filming, broadcasting, or the stage.
      "the film was adapted from a Turgenev short story"
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I’ve created a new way for determining the strength of tropical cyclones. Usually, the stronger cyclone has the lower pressure, but sometimes that just doesn’t work out. Recent examples like Irma and Maria, where the higher-pressure storm has stronger winds than the lower-pressure storm, have made this typical classification rather confusing. So, I created an alternative: a simple equation that calculates strength based on both pressure AND wind speed. Currently it goes under the incredibly creative name of Wind-Pressure Tropical Cyclone Strength, and is closely correlated to Accumulated Cyclone Energy. 

To calculate the WPTCS of a cyclone, the value for P must be determined first. This is found by subtracting the minimum pressure of the storm in mbar from 1010. The value for P is put into this following equation: 

(P x Ws) / 100 = WPTCS

Where Ws is the highest winds of the cyclone and WPTCS is the final strength of the storm. I did some calculations, and the average Atlantic Hurricane Season should have a total WPTCS of about 388.3 units. When finding the strength of all 2017 Atlantic cyclones (including Medicane Numa), the year’s total WPTCS was a whopping 864.3 units. Just like the year’s ACE index, this is around 2.2 times the Atlantic average. I will have to do some more analysis to see if such a relation exists for other Atlantic seasons. 

Now it’s time to see which is actually stronger: Hurricane Irma or Hurricane Maria. Irma had winds of 180 mph (although they were “operationally assessed” at 185 mph) and a pressure of 914 mbar; Maria had 175 mph winds and a minimum pressure of 908 mbar. Using the equation above, Irma’s WPTCS was a whopping 172.8 units, but Maria’s was slightly higher at 178.5 units. Compared to other Atlantic storms, Maria is the ninth strongest, while Irma is the 11th strongest (both Mitch and Katrina take the number 7 spot with WPTCS’s of 189 units).

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18 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

I don’t see how that would improve things. I would just get pretty small numbers, all below 20.

Good when handling loads of it.

Edited by YNM
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