Spaceception

Mars One, now valued at 389.3 Million dollars.

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Well, this is interesting, whether you believe this is a scam or not, they have some $$ now. Anyway, could you see this as being more of a actual company? And maybe they won't colonize Mars, but could you see them doing at least a couple of Mars missions? Maybe alongside SpaceX, or do you think this is still going to go down the drain?

http://www.mars-one.com/news/press-releases/new-mars-one-ventures-ag-shares-issued-after-the-companys-valuation-at-us-3

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Well if you looks a their share price its only a capital raise of about 25 million euros (I also have no idea who that Swiss auditor is, but they're completely insane). They still have nothing more than a concept and the rights to any money made if they ever get their concept to work.

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Here's the real story, as far as I can tell:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/11/mars-one-merges-with-failed-mobile-payment-company-so-it-can-sell-stock/

Quote

On Monday the Netherlands-based Mars One and Switzerland based InFin Innovative Finance AG announced a reverse merger in which InFin will acquire Mars One, and the combined entity will change its name to Mars One Ventures AG. This will effectively make the Mars One venture eligible for trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

"This step provides the opportunity to raise capital through the listing on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange," explained Bas Lansdorp, CEO and cofounder of Mars One, in a news release. "Our global followers will have the opportunity to be part of this adventure and to literally own a piece of this historic venture."

So you're not looking just at Mars One value, there. This is the combined entity, Mars One plus this "Innovative Finance" firm. They've run out of aspiring astronauts to bamboozle, so now they want to dump their stock before the whole thing crashes and burns, courtesy of their "global followers."

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389.3 Million is still peanuts. Not nearly enough to actually go to Mars.
SpaceX wants to send people around the moon and those tickets will cost 80-100 million. That's only a 10 day trip and not an half year trip with an indefinite stay on Mars and all the resources that come with that.

Yes, they have money. But will they actually spend it on a manned Mars mission? I still doubt it.

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39 minutes ago, Spaceception said:

believe this is a scam or not

At this point its not up to debate anymore. They never had more than a few powerpoint slides...

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Well, what about providing some of the technologies for a Mars mission? SpaceX has said the ITS is merely a transportation device, and that the actual colonizing will be done by other entities, do you think it could be feasible (On some level) that Mars One could be one of these? Also, some of the "Mars 100" could be some of the first people to set foot on Mars, just with SpaceX instead, and Mars One could help with Life support, Hydroponics, Power, etc. Could that be another option for the company to take?

3 minutes ago, Elthy said:

At this point its not up to debate anymore. They never had more than a few powerpoint slides...

Now they have almost 4x what Project Starshot has, I think on some level, they could get somewhere, just not on their own.

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2 minutes ago, Spaceception said:

Well, what about providing some of the technologies for a Mars mission? SpaceX has said the ITS is merely a transportation device, and that the actual colonizing will be done by other entities, do you think it could be feasible (On some level) that Mars One could be one of these? Also, some of the "Mars 100" could be some of the first people to set foot on Mars, just with SpaceX instead, and Mars One could help with Life support, Hydroponics, Power, etc. Could that be another option for the company to take?

No. Being valued at an amount is not the same as having that amount in your bank account to spend. It includes any property you own and can't sell if you want to keep running the business, for example. More from my previous link:

Quote

of the $6 billion Mars One estimates it needs to create a settlement, it has collected only about $1 million from merchandise sales, donations, and astronaut applications.

 

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6 minutes ago, HebaruSan said:

No. Being valued at an amount is not the same as having that amount in your bank account to spend. It includes any property you own and can't sell if you want to keep running the business, for example. More from my previous link:

Oh, my mistake. :/

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wasn't this the project that was going to get funded by being a reality TV show?  That particular detail was enough to end my interest, scam or not.

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11 hours ago, JayPee said:

wasn't this the project that was going to get funded by being a reality TV show?  That particular detail was enough to end my interest, scam or not.

Yes.

Most importantly, TV shows don't bring in cash while the mission isn't launched yet.

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Hmmm, that is considerably more money then I thought they'd get.   You could afford a Falcon Heavy launch and a good bit of engineering work with $400 million.   Not that it's enough to get you to Mars necessarily, but being able to afford a launch certainly moves the whole project out of the realm of fantasy.

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10 minutes ago, Finox said:

Hmmm, that is considerably more money then I thought they'd get.   You could afford a Falcon Heavy launch and a good bit of engineering work with $400 million.   Not that it's enough to get you to Mars necessarily, but being able to afford a launch certainly moves the whole project out of the realm of fantasy.

But they can't afford a launch, see above:

 

On 10/03/2017 at 5:48 PM, HebaruSan said:

No. Being valued at an amount is not the same as having that amount in your bank account to spend. It includes any property you own and can't sell if you want to keep running the business, for example. More from my previous link:

 

On 10/03/2017 at 5:07 PM, Steel said:

Well if you looks a their share price its only a capital raise of about 25 million euros...

 

 

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It might not be a scam, and if it isn't the people who tried to set it up were probably disappointed...

I don't see why they aren't making a space lottery where you buy a ticket for the possibility of, say, a trip on SpaceShipTwo (once it flies). And then build up to orbital flights.

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On 3/16/2017 at 4:39 PM, Steel said:

But they can't afford a launch, see above:

Oh, whoops, this was just an auditors appraisal, I was thinking they had actually done their IPO at that value.  :rolleyes:

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On 3/12/2017 at 7:07 AM, DDE said:

Yes.

Most importantly, TV shows don't bring in cash while the mission isn't launched yet.

The plan was to have a Survivor-style elimination TV show with contestants/potential Mars colonists selected from all the entrant applications they've already received. That was supposed to raise money for the rest of the project. I'm not sure if there are still plans to launch that show (pardon the pun)

On 3/12/2017 at 10:22 PM, kerbiloid said:

Is the back ticket price included?

I think at this point, any person that plans on reaching the Martian surface can expect it to be a one-way trip. The cost to return would be so high that it would be pointless.

On 3/16/2017 at 8:59 PM, Bill Phil said:

I don't see why they aren't making a space lottery where you buy a ticket for the possibility of, say, a trip on SpaceShipTwo (once it flies). And then build up to orbital flights.

Someone is trying.... https://www.fundedbyme.com/en/campaign/7361/space-lottery-the-sky-is-no-longer-the-limit/?p=v2

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Posted (edited)
On 3/10/2017 at 0:07 PM, Steel said:

Well if you looks a their share price its only a capital raise of about 25 million euros (I also have no idea who that Swiss auditor is, but they're completely insane). They still have nothing more than a concept and the rights to any money made if they ever get their concept to work.

According to the article,  "The valuation is based on an independent review of our revenue projections, based on previous results, and results in a value per share of about €0.74, which is well above the current share price at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange."

If I'm to interpret that correctly: the auditor was to give a value of the company based on the company's revenue projections. So whatever the revenue projections were, that is what was used to determine the "value" of the company. I'm sure that somewhere in the audit report it is mentioned that the revenue projections might not be realistic but that's not what was audited.

Squad can claim to sell 3 billion copies of KSP next year and then get an "official, independent" valuation of their company (likely to be somewhere north of a billion dollars). That valuation is worth as much how correct the expectation of selling 3 billion copies is, but that is something they'll not mention of course, but if you check the report it'll be in there.

As far as I can tell, their war chest is still only the $25M raised initially, the current "value" of the company doesn't change that. But if, even if, this somehow means that MO now magically has $380M... How are you going to fund a Mars colony with that? It's hardly enough for a first launch, let alone those non stop supply missions that are needed until the last of their volunteers has died that horrible death (which, according to an MIT review, would be within 60 days if I recall that number correctly. So perhaps resupply missions are not really that urgent)

For a long time I chalked it up to stupidity and overoptimistic enthusiasm, but the longer this farce is going on, the more I get the feeling it's a scam. Numbers just don't add up at all and seem to diverge from reality more and more (instead of converging).

 

Edited by Kerbart

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On Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 5:34 PM, StrandedonEarth said:

The plan was to have a Survivor-style elimination TV show

When I first read this I thought of 'The Weakest Link' tv show ... your the weakest link, out the airlock you go :confused:

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Posted (edited)

@ the topic title

Answer: I really don't care.
Sorry if I'm the negative person around here on this subject but here I go.

Mars one is a joke. And while I don't know or believe it, it could indeed be a scam as this is claimed.

I just say that this argument goes around, I don't even believe that personally, but in light of that argument I would go as far to say that they are not automaticaly to be taken seriously.
I before warn you that what I'm about to write is purely a moral aspect defence talk concerning morality involving mars one.

What they're basically suggesting is for any crew member out there to have a very limited, closedly defined LIFE.
Trust me that I'm all about noble sacrifice up untill death itself. In this case for science and exploration obviously.
Mars one may seem cool to you and to me to regarding the main aspect of mars exploration but you readers and many other people alike must know that it is basically sacrificing your whole life.
And in detail I'd say it's defined by having a life spent in several square meter space, danger of life support failure and other such things.
Burying your own men instead of taking them home.
Crew death due to equipment failure or life support danger.
Does the crew have to bury their own men next to their camp in case they die?

It sure isn't different compared to the medieval ages if that were to be the case.

Look, I know we are all very focused on the experimented data about having crew being confined in tight spaces for years on end.
Heck, this is being tested on the ISS itself and it works.

Yes it works!
My point however is that we rather raise money to put people on a one way trip to wherever basicaly where they will be destined to have no life at all.
Say all you want about the wonders of Mars!

I'd say it is wonderfull.
People can argue that the exploration aspect or the scientific aspect is motivation enough to go on a Mars one trip. And yes, these are valuable arguments.
But do know that this means you'll be confined to a igloo hut in terms of personal space, ..... for the rest of your LIFE.
It's like living in a tent on the Sahara for all your life where you'll only be allowed to take small trips outside in a spacesuit.
Is that worth it just so you can be the first to physically touch a mars rock?

I'm bring this point about because I saw a video advertisement of Mars one a while back with initiates who volunteered to do it.

And they all talked big about the wonders of the expedition and were eager about the pros. Obviously since it was a advertisement (duh)

But not one of them said that besides it's thrills that they realized they'd be imprisoned in a alien landscape for the rest of their lives and whether they would or wouldn't be able to handle it.
Look, I dream about meeting the inuits to myself some day on a polar expedition. But don't ask me to spent the rest of my life their in a continuous snow storm.
I wonder how much the mars one expedition realizes this.

Going along with a one way trip expedition that includes a "settlers" attitude where environmental conditions are preset by the artificial quarters present is absolutely delusional and a dream state at best.
The psychological and mental aspects of that are completely overlooked, no matter how much tests are done on ths ISS.

Then I'd rather have a space company (of any kind) being honest with themselves and say that there should be a way to get them back.
I'd rather wait for SpaceX ITS to do this job then Mars one.

I actually know that this is a common argument but I just wanted to say it.
I also want to point out that I'm not driven on the basis of national motivation. The project leader is dutch as am I.
I hope the guy has a million + bucks or more and gets to raise his familiy well and beyond such treasures.
But honestly, I hope his Mars one company goes bankrupt. And I have very much doubt whether the volunteers are completely aware of what they put themselves into.

 

Edited by Razorforce7

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Posted (edited)

badum tshhh, you like exhange market model that much in all it's behaviour and manifestation, because you know once mars reached, you can say bye bye to all the stupidity linked to the exchange market model ? sort of fun every day at random as well, you just assume it's normal, because you can't look at all the resulting crap with a step back; i mean you really think your gonna use money a single day once mars reached ?

so what playin mac gyver and growing potatoe and doing science to send back to earth is a matter for ya ? may be not to send a moron on mars with should send a mormon , while mormon dislike electronics a bit, it could be annoyin'

aslo once there you can eventually send a big photo with a finger "hey all of you peopes still have fun with war and mafia and various traffic cool happy for you, here the weather is nice" ^^ and still grow your potatoe and on earth they will be happy ^^

it's fun arguin' with people not even noticing their own chains limitation and evolve over ages, people on earth are boring DOT

Edited by WinkAllKerb''
mars one unrelated, generic though

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