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Imagining a Kerbal Future: What Would the Future of Kerbals Look Like? (Chapter XLIII: Epilogue)


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40 minutes ago, VelocityPolaris said:

Maybe resource depletion / environmental change possibly related to global warming? After all, they probably dug up a lot of deposits building those space elevators and space cargo fleets and such.

I don't know if resouce depletion would necessarily be an issue - there's surely a lot inside Kerbin that can be mined, though it would get more difficult to do so. That said, environmental change could certainly happen. Any other ideas?

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I assume that an independance thing would develop like in the expanse or call of duty

That would lead Kerbin to become desparate because resources would be practically depleted due to the colonization efforts. That would lead to perhaps a conflict between Kerbin and the other systems as they desparately grasp at the remaining colonies to try and keep them under their influence.

Either that or they would foresee that problem and put an authoritarian system in place to stop anything from happening.

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THE KERBIN SYSTEM IN A COLONIZED KERBOL SYSTEM: PART ONE

Chapter XXXI of Imagining a Kerbal Future

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    Unless apocalypse has befell Kerbin, it is pretty much certain that Kerbin will be the center of Kerbal civilization. Without dramatic change, Kerbin would have multiple times the population of all the other worlds and habitats. However, the relative power of Kerbin to the rest of the worlds will fade.

Government

    With Kerbin, it is anyone person’s guess what the government may be. With factors like the people colonizing the planet not applying to Kerbin, the options are broadened—better for a story writer, worse for me. It could be fractured with many countries occupying Kerbin, or it could be united, with “unity” ranging from a loose association of countries, to one centralized polity.

    The Mun is a target that corporations would be more interested in, rather than the distant planets. Kerbin government(s) may encourage companies to develop their claimed territory. This allows the governments to have easy access to a settled Mun for various purposes, while the corporations are able to make money. Though territorial claims by countries may not be recognized as a result of potential treaties, it seems likely that certain resource use rights will be accepted.

    In the early years of the Mun colonies, the entity on Kerbin who owns the settlement will probably be in direct control of the settlement, as result of the low light delay.  The early settlements will be tightly controlled, with very high security to prevent a single Kerbal from endangering the entire settlement. Such an incident is unlikely, given the intense vetting process, but the controllers are unlikely to take a risk. Such security would have to be balanced with concerns of privacy, however—the discovery of privacy-violating surveillance would surely lead to action by the colonists.

    The Central Authority of the Mun from Chapter XXVI could grow in power to become a united Munar government itself, associated with Kerbin in some form due to the proximity and consequently close cultural and economic relationship. I would imagine it to be relatively weak in power, with the various corporations and governments on the Mun maintaining most jurisdiction.

     On Minmus, I imagine another “port” scenario similar to Gilly, being shared among the various powers or ruled by an international organization. However, it could just as likely be a hotspot for border tension, the small size of the moon resulting in groups coming into frequent contact. In my opinion, Minmus might resemble Hong Kong or Macau—that is to say, Minmus would manage its own internal affairs, while Kerbin is in charge of their defense and foreign policy. The moon might become a tourist center for wealthy Kerbiners, relying on them for much of their economy. 

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The picture the new banner is based off of!

Orbital habitats may declare themselves independent of their host country or corporation, becoming a small city-state. Several of these in close proximity could together form a coalition of such habitats, sharing a common government and having especially close transportation and economic links. Breakaways of such habitats should be done peacefully, because a blockade will lead to a quick surrender, since the only resources the habitat can use are in the habitat already. Unless the habitats are backed by a major power, perhaps as part of a proxy war, or if there is some sort of MacGuffinite the habitat has to offer to Kerbin (resulting in a peace deal), armed independence should be avoided.

I could see a single orbital habitat being governed by direct democracy, as it is in the best interests of each Kerbal to vote for what is best for the space station, to keep the station operating healthilyThis would be reinforced by the fact that the station acts as a single community, unlike an alliance of cities scattered across the Mun, for example. Since such colonists are incentivized to work for the benefit of the whole, the culture of such habitats may be very collaborative with the focus being on everyone, not just oneself. A potential issue may be that newcomers with significantly different views compared to the rest of the station will feel alienated. An alternative form of government for an orbital habitat would be a technocracy, which would see the greatest implementation in the daily operation of the colony. 

The Issues of the Kerbin System

    The independence of orbital habitats is part of one major issue the “classic” powers or Kerbin would face. This issue is the breakaway of settlements across the Kerbol system.     

Distant planetary colonies may be one of the first things that come to mind. If we believe the classic tropes, the most likely colony is Duna. The independence may occur as a result of a Dunan culture developing, which is fiercely against the very different Kerbiners. Even so, a push for complete independence from any Kerbin power seems unlikely, given that the planet is likely to have been settled by multiple powers, and the new Dunan settlement would at the very least benefit from trade with Kerbin. In my opinion, the only successful independence movements will be gradual, though it could succeed if much of Kerbin is heavily distracted, perhaps fighting each other.

    Another source of “independence” may be from expanding megacorporations. If we assume, for whatever reason, these corporations have accrued massive amounts of profit and assets, they may be able to act more and more like countries of their own. The corporations can win over the loyalty and public image of millions by providing them with services, perhaps preferable in quality to those provided by countries. In exchange, the customers would agree to some service to the corporation. A corporation can take an even more extreme step by setting up their own private defense force.

In such a situation, the corporation would become more important than the regular governments. There may not be a clear independence movement as much as governments fading into irrelevance. However, fighting could still happen, perhaps in objection to an attempt to exert power over the corporation. Going to war against the corporation would be a dangerous choice, especially if the people identify more with the corporation, not the nation. A potential outcome may be autonomy for the corporation, and a trade agreement for the country. A total defeat could have quite different results, from certain concessions or even the corporation taking complete control.

In this series, I assume that some sort of rather significant life extension would take hold. This would mean that much of the population would be very old, especially since population growth would level out, likely as “space” on Kerbin becomes less available and increasing the population, so to speak, is less of a necessity. Many of the youth growing up in this period would feel disenfranchised and underrepresented in their interests. The older population would already have great wealth and connections relative to them, leaving them trapped. As a result, many of them would depart Kerbin itself, likely for orbital habitats in cis-Mun space, which would offer a familiar environment, but with less of the structure associated, with a large youth population and as a result more equality in terms of experience. Some may find cis-Mun to be too close to Kerbin, and proceed for the other planets. If the Kerbin governments are willing to institute extreme measures, they may even attempt to ban emigration from Kerbin, or actively discourage emigration.

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If one assumes there are no Lagrange points, they can ignore the two lobes on the sides on the Mun. 

A Kessler syndrome could be especially dangerous to the Kerbin system. The other planets would not only have less debris from less activity, later, more advanced rockets would not need drop tanks and expendable fuel stages. In contrast, the Kerbin system would see massive activity from the very beginning of the space age, and the compact nature of Kerbin-space relative to Earth-space might make collisions relatively frequent. It would be imperative from the onset to establish a precise detection system to keep track of debris for future measures that would actually deorbit, destroy, recover and salvage the debris in question. Kessler syndrome would be especially harmful to space elevators, as their tethers could be severed by high velocity debris.

Centuries of major industrial activity on Kerbin would likely result in environmental damage. The changes required by this disaster would be similar to the climate change crisis on Earth, and would be a priority issue at all times. Kerbin’s small size might mean that the effects of similar-scale damage on Earth may be far worse.

The small size of Kerbin means that the overall resources available in the planet are far less. Ignoring the fact that Kerbin is denser than anything we know, and assuming a similar composition to Earth, Kerbin would be at a greater threat of depleting resources. While many raw metals, for example, are practically everywhere, a few special resources may become increasingly depleted—therefore forcing Kerbin to rely on space-based resources, making the loss of the colonies even more painful.

Military and War

Why fight?

    Around Kerbin, the causes of war can be numerous, with more traditional countries on Kerbin, where warfare is somewhat less risky without the immediate threat of asphyxiation nearby. These conflicts are likely to spill over into the colonies they own in space. Alternatively, a union of Kerbin may collapse, and nations will try to grab what they can.

The secession of various colonies from Kerbin may lead to a movement to take back these territories. The younger population of Kerbin may seek revanchism for an era when the colonies were under the control of Kerbin. In theory, all of Kerbin and a few of its colonies against the rest of the settlements could easily result in a victory for Kerbin through sheer numbers. However, it would be expensive, time-consuming, and the average Kerbiner probably would not benefit, as Kerbin would lose access to valuable services and resources. While Kerbin may not want to fight wars, a unified Kerbin could use threats against the space nations to keep them from fighting among each other.

    On the Mun, I see a scenario akin to Moho—corporations with colonies on a barren world where the water is located purely at the poles, looking for a quick and easy fight against a neighbor. However, there are differences. One big difference is that other powers could more easily intervene, and try to end the conflict, diplomatically or militarily. A parent nation of a corporation involved in a conflict can expect to deliver aid in hours, not weeks.

    Minmus? Not sure. Given my idea for a Minmus government, I find it unlikely that it would happen at all, but perhaps a small border conflict is possible, perhaps over some important areas like the flats. Certainly the issue of low gravity will be an interesting one to deal with. 

Warfare

The countries of Kerbin (or a united Kerbin) would have military forces in space that exist to maintain control of their colonies, acting as a large fleet in being stationed across the colonies, and if the worst happens, make sure that the rebellions do not succeed. As a result, the fleet would be very large.

    The warfare situation on Kerbin is, as with many other things, undetermined, and will no doubt vary from place to place, so discussion of this will be for the scenario. In any case, one should consider the effects of technology like railguns, orbital weaponry, lasers, stealth drones, powered armor and the like.

    As mentioned earlier, warfare on the Mun would be like that on Moho. Therefore, I can imagine the main strategic targets again being the water supply, launch systems, and achieving space superiority. Since the water supply is hard to constrict, an alternative may be other resources, such as those that provide valuable material for constructing infrastructure and weapons, for example. Once captured, they could be reconfigured for their own equipment, barring a scorched-Mun retreat that destroys the factories instead. Establishing space superiority and a blockade would be more difficult, since there are likely many more neutral parties on the Mun than on Moho, potentially including some powerful countries. In conclusion, a major conflict on the Mun will only get very far if each side is threatening enough to quiet or defeat neutral parties, or if the battles are rather contained in the territory of each belligerent.

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"The green stuff is totally harmless, right?"

    How might space-based entities fight ones on Kerbin? If there was no regard for high precision or collateral damage, then they might turn to asteroids. Their high mass would make it difficult to annihilate with weapons or lasers—they might push it off course from the impact or by ablation, but well-protected rockets could readjust course. This is especially important if the asteroid is meant for only one country in particular. The issue with an asteroid is that it isn’t particularly stealthy, since the launch, whether through a rocket or obscenely large railgun, is likely to be detected, though the trajectory of the latter may be more difficult to find, especially with dark materials and cooling. If the asteroid actually strikes, it could result in anything from major regional damage to a global catastrophe. The disadvantage of this kind of strike is that it gives the attacked nation the justification to destroy non-underground enemy settlements with great ease, also at a great civilian loss.

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This might be familiar to fans of 2001: A Kerbal Odyssey...

    More likely, precision weapons like railguns and lasers would be used, posing a threat to most above ground installations. In response, ground assets would become smaller and stealthier, or be moved deep underground. This means small drones and scouts would play a larger role, and secret transportation links might be built to move obvious targets.

A war of independence within the system will have to deal with the fact that the combined resources of Kerbin are only days away, so there will be little time to prepare and assess the situation. For Kerbin, the target will probably be the flow of resources, while trying to prevent injury to the civilian populace, so that the retaliation from the civilians when the actual station is taken is far less.

Regrettably, I don't have a lot to write on Minmus. However, I would imagine any military stationed there would have to consider the particularly low gravity there, and the fact that water ice seems to be in fairly distributed across the moon, while probably being decently accessible. I feel that conflicts here would be shorter and more on a tactical scale, focusing on assaults on individual habitats, for example, instead of a whole array of them.

War Scenario (Part One)

For this chapter, I’ll focus on two scenarios—a skirmish on the Moon between corporate powers. The second will be a Kerbin nation, its colonies, and its bases, against another Kerbin nation, its own colonies, and its own bases.

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The Terketia International Corporation and the Kaputaket Group are two megacorporations. The Terketia settled the Mun first, with their subsidiary corporation: the Bountiful Horizons. Originally a major aerospace corporation, the Terketia realized the opportunity that setting up a mining establishment at the Munar poles would bring, by providing a propellant for a way station in Munar orbit, which would help ship payloads cisMun space and aid ventures aiming for Duna. The mining establishment was incredibly costly, but by complementing and improving the launch services of the TIC, it proved to be worthy. The approval of self-expanding factory technology on the Mun by their host country led to an exceptional expansion of their industrial might. After 200 Kerbin years, this allowed the space sector of the TIC to expand into energy production, as massive solar arrays are built on the cheap, and TIC-built orbital colonies wander about across the Kerbin system, and even a few around other planets.

The Kaputaket Group was initially the collective effort of several Boreamare states, which established the corporation as a venture to begin a presence of the countries in space. One of the major projects was that of a polar mining and manufacturing base, which similarly embraced self-expanding factories. Over the years, the role of the Boreamare states have faded from the corporation, but they still are stakeholders and are given special access rights in relation to other countries.

Self-expanding factories have brought tremendous benefit to both groups, but unfortunately it was solely responsible for the two entities directly coming into conflict, as the mining vehicles began to compete over the same resources. Without an international overseer of utilization rights, the two corporations have been unable to solve an ever… growing conflict. Due to the nature of self-expanding factories, both sides know that even incremental advances in replication rates can lead to nearly exponential changes in industrial capability down the line, making now the best time to eliminate the enemy, which will be much stronger and harder to destroy later. Knowing this, neither would be willing to be absorbed by the other, since in the future far more money is to be made.

Now or Never

In the midst of this tension, the factories of the TIC begin configuring their robots for armed defense purposes, and high-powered lasers and low-power mass drivers are installed not far from the conflict zone. The Kaputaket responds with similar measures. Neither action can be opposed by international treaty, which only opposes the installation of Nuclear weapons.

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For unclear reasons, a squad of TIC  robots launches an attack on multiple Kaputaket mining vehicles, destroying or heavily damaging them. After a series of misunderstandings, the Kaputaket respond by removing the payload from a cargo tug, and redirecting it into an undefended TIC factory, causing irreparable damage. No formal declaration of hostilities would happen during the course of the war, but the actions by both sides quite clearly suggest a war.

Both sides are clearly more or less equivalent in strength and industrial production. Each of the factions host several thousand kerbals on-site, who would probably attempt to evacuate or relocate to a particularly safe part of the factory. No conflict has ever taken place on the Mun at this point, and both sides are inexperienced in space warfare, or warfare in general, for that matter. Both sides understand that the victor of this conflict will forever surpass the other, and are thus willing to be aggressive in their measures.

I would guess that the self-expanding factory would act as one integrated operation, making it difficult to isolate the mining equipment from the factory, when they are both packed near each other, so the strategy suggested earlier will not help defeat the enemy. That said, the goal of both sides is to prevent the other from expanding to a comparable size, and in order to achieve that, they just need to destroy enough equipment on the other side to force them to dedicate more and more resources to repair, and thus slowing expansion. This seems quite fine, until one realizes that these forces are quite evenly matched! As a result, the two sides will just wear down each other, and this may allow other groups to develop their own factories, which become bigger and better.

A few factors exist to change the outcome: the first is whether the TIC’s head start in weapons production gave them a big enough advantage. The second is whether the Boreamare countries take action, whether against the TIC for their aggressive action, or directly against their host country for allowing the conflict to happen. If tensions were already high, then a war might start between the two.

Regardless of which side wins, I think there will be a realization that there has to be some sort of central authority on the Mun to peacefully resolve conflicts. The authority would probably grant only some territory to each entity. This would prevent the uncontrolled growth of factories and possibly encourage more land-efficient operations.

Next chapter, we'll explore more scenarios and the culture of Kerbin!

Thanks for Reading!

Next: The Kerbin System In A Colonized Kerbol System, Part Two

Edited by SaturnianBlue
Added the purpose of a space military for Kerbin's countries
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The Kerbin-Mun-Minmus system is interesting to speculate about.
Minmus, for example, would be more valuable than the Mun, as it costs less deltaV to lift off from and to depart of extra-Kerbin desinations. Other factors, such as the Mun being within range of ground-to-orbit weaponry such as lasers or missiles would make Minmus more attractive to 'independant' corporations than others.

The proximity with Kerbin might lead to a depressive effect on the Mun/Minmus economies and infrastructure. By having such a vast pool of wealth, population and resources nearby, some aspects of colonization might be neglected. There will be a smaller than expected permanent population, as people can just take an orbital shuttle back to their comfortable Kerbin-side homes. Industrial processing will be lacking too, as most of the delicate or intricate products such as electronics can be done in Kerbin factories and shipped up for a rather low price compared to building a new factory.

When it comes to corporations becoming state-like... well, this exists today, but we call it givernment corruption and it leads to 'Banana Republics'. Who pays for the bribes? Who pushes for mono-cultures and over-exploitation? Corporations, but with the veneer of legitimacy that having an actual government in place grants.

If spaceflight has reached the point where regular interplanetary travel occurs, then there certainly would be some spaceships left over to assign to debris-clearing duties, such as with big nets, electrostatic tethers of 'laser brooms'.

When it comes to war, the biggest losers will be space stations. They depend on things running smoothly on the ground, and are very vulnerable to any debris created by projectiles, kinetics and exploding spaceships.

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@MatterBeam Good points with Minmus—I sort of ended up with a Muncentric view, since a lot of places I looked for ideas on are based in the real Solar System, with no second moon around Earth. However, I think that technologies like mass drivers and infrastructure for Aluminum-Oxygen rockets could close the advantage Minmus has.

I've wondered about how self-replicating/expanding factories would affect the price of building new factory infrastructure. That kind of factory probably won't be built on Kerbin, but on the Mun it can just be left to expand and retool itself for new industries with little exterior input. They would have to limit growth at some point to prevent one factory from taking over the Mun, but it might just make a lot more cheaper to build on the Mun. Such factories might bring an advantage to the Mun, with its greater surface area allowing more factories to exist there.

Space stations are inherently vulnerable, but to what extent would you imagine them being able to defend themselves—they probably have a lot of power available to them, being unconstrained by mass?

Edited by SaturnianBlue
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On 4/1/2018 at 10:25 AM, SaturnianBlue said:

Space stations are inherently vulnerable, but to what extent would you imagine them being able to defend themselves—they probably have a lot of power available to them, being unconstrained by mass?

A station designed with defence in mind might not even be considered as a potential target, it could have all the fighters, point-defences, and concentrated death-rays security deems necessary. It'd take a concentrated and probably costly attack for any weapons to get through, so it's likely that any vessels retreating to a friendly station would be "safe in port". But any stations with minimal or last-minute defences are many times more vulnerable. An armament consisting entirely of point-defences means that they might not be able to fire on whatever spaceships are shooting torpedoes at them, so the attackers would easily saturate the station with overwhelming fire from a certain angle. Plus hasty or light defences are likely to leave blind spots open.

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On 4/3/2018 at 4:44 PM, SaturnianBlue said:

A new question: culturally, what slight differences in culture might exist around Kerbin orbit, the Mun, or Minmus, especially in relation to Kerbin itself?

I don't really know anything, but maybe the Mün would kinda have a corporate / worker culture? 'Cuz once you're there long enough, it's kinda bleak, so maybe they'd see the friendly friends back on Kerbin like weird foreign business partners / gullible tourists (see Artemis by Andy Weir). 

Orbital facilities could maybe see the surface as a kind of pointy-haired boss, ordering them around without the perspective related to the overview effect. Sorry, that's not too helpful. We could totally see closed communities and private homes in orbit for the rich, maybe an attempt or two at a utopian society (though maybe they'd just go to another moon or planet)

I'd like to think that they've got it pretty great on Minmus, which sits a comfortable distance away from those crazies on Kerbin, but not too far to take their money. Imagine a port city, but everyone has cool shades and ice cream.

It's not much help, but some ideas are better than none, right? 

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@VelocityPolaris

Thanks for your input!

Could you elaborate more on the corporate/worker culture? I agree with your point that those on the Mun would probably visit Kerbin quite frequently. 

That's an interesting point you bring up with the overview effect—I hadn't considered how it might change them. Especially if cheap space travel becomes a thing, those who are more space-minded would already be making their way to space, further widening the gap in perspective. I'm not sure about utopian communities in orbital space—there's less resources for them to use, and their ideas might make others uncomfortable in regards to trade, so planets might be a better option.

Earlier today I was also thinking about Minmus and I added to the previous chapter that it might resemble a sort of Space Macau/Hong Kong, as a sort of port city with some but not complete separation from Kerbin. As with those cities, they might have some cultural practices from distant places, though it would more be because they consist of a lot of the visitors, and less to do with colonization. 

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On 01/04/2018 at 3:25 PM, SaturnianBlue said:

@MatterBeam Good points with Minmus—I sort of ended up with a Muncentric view, since a lot of places I looked for ideas on are based in the real Solar System, with no second moon around Earth. However, I think that technologies like mass drivers and infrastructure for Aluminum-Oxygen rockets could close the advantage Minmus has.

I've wondered about how self-replicating/expanding factories would affect the price of building new factory infrastructure. That kind of factory probably won't be built on Kerbin, but on the Mun it can just be left to expand and retool itself for new industries with little exterior input. They would have to limit growth at some point to prevent one factory from taking over the Mun, but it might just make a lot more cheaper to build on the Mun. Such factories might bring an advantage to the Mun, with its greater surface area allowing more factories to exist there.

Space stations are inherently vulnerable, but to what extent would you imagine them being able to defend themselves—they probably have a lot of power available to them, being unconstrained by mass?

Minmus would still have an advantage with mass drivers and Al-Ox rockets, as the escape velocity is lower (242 vs 807 m/s) and its lower gravity (0.05g vs 0.166g) allows for even smaller engines to be used. 
Self-replicating factories would flip everything on its head. Whatever the up-front cost, you will always get a return. In fact, the only way to lose in the self-replicating game is if you expand more slowly than your rivals! And, however slow the replication is, it will always reach an inflexion point where it becomes exponentially bigger and bigger.

Space stations with a lot of available power can rely on active defenses (lasers to shoot down projectiles) and on beamed propulsion to place huge amounts of dumb mass around them as shielding.

On 03/04/2018 at 2:38 AM, VelocityPolaris said:

A station designed with defence in mind might not even be considered as a potential target, it could have all the fighters, point-defences, and concentrated death-rays security deems necessary. It'd take a concentrated and probably costly attack for any weapons to get through, so it's likely that any vessels retreating to a friendly station would be "safe in port". But any stations with minimal or last-minute defences are many times more vulnerable. An armament consisting entirely of point-defences means that they might not be able to fire on whatever spaceships are shooting torpedoes at them, so the attackers would easily saturate the station with overwhelming fire from a certain angle. Plus hasty or light defences are likely to leave blind spots open.

The fact that the space station does not move means that you shoot an incredible number of projectiles are from incrementally increasing distances, at incrementally increasing velocity, and time them so that they all strike at the same time. This is similar to the Multiple Round Simultaneous Impact tactic modern artillery uses.

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On 2018-04-03 at 4:44 PM, SaturnianBlue said:

A new question: culturally, what slight differences in culture might exist around Kerbin orbit, the Mun, or Minmus, especially in relation to Kerbin itself?

There would be a good deal of separation of culture. In the same way that Canadian culture is vastly different to American, French and British culture, despite sharing a language and a good deal of trade and cultural items with the second two and a border and almost everything with the first. In Canada, we're separated by an ocean with the european countries and two borders with America, and that is enough isolation (despite the fact that 80% of our people live within 300 km of the American border) to create massive cultural differences. With the Mun or Minmus, when it takes between a day and a week to ship things and people there, and an incredible cost, that would be a lot more. With the Mun and Minmus slowly becoming more self-sustainable, and the inhabitants unable to go back to Kerbin due to the gravity difference, the isolation would produce massive changes. Contempt towards the decadent and open Kerbin lifestyle would grow. Maybe it wouldn't be hostility, just jokes (in the same way that in Canada we like to make fun of the percieved blunders of our southern/eastern neighbors), but either way there would be an active and popular separation from Kerbin culture. I can't say how that would manifest, but the Mun and Minmus would be the pubescant children attempting to free themselves from the grasp of their protective parents.

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My guess as to a scenario is that Mun and Minmus start as being controlled by governments on Kerbin, before growing, separating and becoming self-sustaining. I doubt Kerbin would want to go to war with them, as the Mun in particular stands in a perfect position to bombard any surface installation on the surface of Kerbin.  Eventually, these free governments would become close allies of the people of Kerbin, with trade among the three being widespread. Minmus' economy would depend heavily on refueling ships (and delivering mint ice cream to Kerbin), while Mun would be a hub of building materials and Helium 3 (assuming that helium 3 is as widespread on Mun as it is on the Moon).

Edit: If you find any discrepancies or need to add something to my scenario, feel free!

Edited by obney kerman
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I think judging by the views expressed here and the discord, here’s my attempt to summarize everyone’s responses:

Since the population of Kerbin is still on Kerbin despite cheap space travel, its safe to say that those on kerbin would be less interested in space. Kerbin would probably be perceived as being in decline.

Orbital space might see wealthy inhabitants and powerful from Kerbin live in privately-owned space stations.

The Mun would probably be dependent on Kerbin, due to sheer proximity making it better for certain goods to be built and sent to the Mun. However, the permanent residents (many of them would be part-time) would be somewhat weary of the tourists from Kerbin. Slowly some unique cultural characteristics would develop.

Minmus would be a more favorable colonization target, especially early on. Minmus might diverge culturally from Kerbin earlier due to the distance.

 
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On 3/30/2018 at 3:11 PM, SaturnianBlue said:

, I don't have a lot to write on Minmus

Its made of salt, so you could recreate the end of the last jedi.

Edited by DAL59
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23 minutes ago, DAL59 said:

Its made of salt, so you could recreate the end of the last jedi.

Spoilers for Space Wars: The Last Kerbal

Spoiler

The evil Kerbin Empire has severely weakened the Space Resistance, after forcing their fleet to flee from the Mun. In this "final" confrontation, the resistance sets up a base on the side of the mountain next the flats...

 

Edited by SaturnianBlue
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THE KERBIN SYSTEM IN A COLONIZED KERBOL SYSTEM: PART TWO

Chapter XXXII of Imagining a Kerbal Future

War Scenario: Number Two

Background

The people of Kerbin have become increasingly united, with many beginning to call themselves “Kerbiners” instead of their respective nations. However, there is no real unity under a single flag—the Kerbal Union only has so much power.

Even in this era of union, war has not totally ceased. The New Republic of the Tarconnesis and the Third Kerpania Federation have had a difficult relationship for the past decades, to put it mildly. Both coastal nations on the Sea of Serenity, the NRT is the dominant power of the western sea, and the TKF the eastern sea.

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Population

The NRT began space settlement efforts first, and used space elevators and tethers to lift people into space, and their choice of launch system resulted in a massive Kerbostationary population. On the other hand, the TKF chose to use launch loops and mass drivers, resulting in a larger LKO population. More recently, they have also constructed space elevators. This has led to the main point of conflict, as they have come to control overlapping parts of Kerbostationary, which has enormous value for space access, energy, and communications. As a result, no side is willing to compromise, and the TKF even goes as far as to plan out a first strike...

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NRT

    -Kerbin: 42,000,000

    -LKO: 20,000

    -Kerbostationary/HKO: 700,000

    -Mun Space: 250,000

    -Minmus Space: 7,500

    -Various other planetary colonies: 20,000

TKF

    -Kerbin: 58,000,000 

    -LKO: 185,000

    -Kerbostationary/HKO: 320,000

    -Mun Space: 260,000

    -Minmus Space: 10,000

    -Various other planetary colonies: 20,000

Warfare

    Even in a time of relative peace, the two sides have maintained a strong military. Despite their strength, neither side has nuclear weapons, as a result of nuclear disarmament treaties. On the ground, warfare has become more automated, but Kerbals still play a role. For example, the NRT still uses some kerbals in its command as backup for a potential attack on their robotic systems. These kerbals are only lightly armored, mainly to save weight and equipment. However, they make up for it in tweaks for extra strength, for example.

    Aircraft have become obsolete. Advanced railguns and lasers on the ground and in space can carry out the role of air attacks with similar effect, and can very easily destroy large aircraft. Instead, tiny, stealthy drones patrol the skies.

    On the high seas, there is, ironically little to see… For the same reasons aircraft have become obsolete, surface ships have also—roles like ocean vessel escorts are relegated to the spacecraft, which make attacks on space-based weaponry targeting the vessels. However, submarines are still in service, serving as anti-orbit vessels which surface at the right time to attack orbital bombardment platforms.

    In space, most habitats and cities equip anti-asteroid defenses, and some of the most important installations have high-power defenses. Given the compact nature of the Kerbin system, these defenses are also capable of serving an offensive role. However, small habitats cannot afford such elaborate defenses—making them easy targets in a shooting war.

The space fleet of both countries is relatively similar. They have:

 

NRT                      TKF

 

Destroyers: 3       Destroyers: 3

 

Escorts: 18           Escorts: 13

 

Attackers: 12        Attackers: 17

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    First is the largest vessel of each fleet, the destroyer. Corvette/Escort Destroyers, to be precise. Their size allows them to equip large electrical plants, which in turn opens the possibility for deadlier weapons. Destroyers propel themselves with nuclear engines, as with all the other warships. In general, the NRT prefers to use railguns on their destroyers, as the high altitude means that gravity is less impactful, and they use heavier armor with the consideration that this altitude makes them more exposed. In contrast, the TKF prefers powerful propulsion, to quickly change orbits to launch attacks and to perform better in low orbit where more TKF resources are located. Their use of lasers suits the purpose, since there is little effect on the laser path even in LKO.
    Second are the smaller attackers. Often equipped with missiles and lasers, their role is in the name. In this setting, missiles do not usually carry an explosive payload—their damage is from the impact velocity.

Escorts counter attackers, with heavy emphasis on lasers and guns that can take out incoming missiles.

The difference in the composition of the space fleets is explained by the focuses that these two countries have taken. The NRT has been the more long-standing power in space, while the TKF is growing. The NRT has a lot more infrastructure to defend, while the TKF has less and emphasizes the use of attackers, so that in an upcoming war they can attack the NRT.

The longest range weapons in this scenario can reliably hit are the submarines, with a range probably past Kerbostationary.

FwNVUjE.png

A somewhat unrelated, but nonetheless notable wild card might be war through persuasion or ideas, swaying the civilian population of the enemy towards dissenting opinions. This could include arguments such as the threat of kinetic weaponry raining down on cities, for example, perhaps prompting the nation being attacked with these arguments to respond with a counterargument.

 

First Strike

Objective: In this massive first strike against the NRT, the TKF aims to quickly cripple the space forces and infrastructure of the enemy.

One of the first attacks is against the space elevators—small attacks cut the tether itself, enough to disable operations for several days, as well as large attacks, which attack the transportation hubs located at the endpoint of the tether, to make trade significantly harder. The latter is quite a shock, considering the threat to thousands of civilians.

Another attack strikes out against the several major defense platforms of the NRT, to destroy their orbital bombardment capability.

A fleet of a destroyer and many of the TKF attackers are tasked with destroying the main NRT fleet in Kerbostationary, located at one of the space elevator hubs at the relatively well-armed Kermanov station.

    After this initial attack the TKF is to attack the shipyards to prevent more warships from being deployed and further cutting at trade capabilities. Another strategic target is the space solar plants, which provide a not insignificant amount of power to the ground and in space.

    On Kerbin, massive waves of underwater drones are deployed to scout out anti-orbit submarines, to allow attack submarines to intercept and destroy them before posing a threat to hoped space superiority.

Results

The First Kerbal of the TKF declares war against the NRT. The attack against the tethers succeeds, disrupting the connection between Kerbin and space. Several capsules on the elevators are captured. After accelerating from their main area of operations in LKO, the TKF fleet attacks Kermanov station—the site of the main enemy fleet. The TKF planned to use the element of surprise to outweigh their disadvantages in numbers, but the NRT came better equipped than expected. The NRT loses several of their ships and the rest has taken damage, but they repelled the attack, which was intended as a predecessor to a boarding. The TKF suffers similar damage to their own fleet, preventing the planned shipyard attacks. Kermanov station is heavily damaged—in addition to the strike itself, massive amounts of debris caused by the battle struck the station.

2LRrxmC.png

As for the attack against the major defense platforms and poorly armed habitats, carried out mainly by other platforms in Kerbostationary orbit, they are moderately successful, causing serious damage. However, this is not before the NRT successfully disables solar plants in orbit. Another TKF fleet has successfully forced the NRT out of LKO, but considering the relative absence of valuable assets there, it is not a major loss.

Around the Mun, both sides try to establish a blockade to prevent resources from being exported on cargo ships. The Mun tethers that both sides possessed are cut—as with the space elevator, one can’t really defend something so long. The mass drivers are a major target for the TKF—no missiles are used, as space superiority has yet to be established (allowing them to fly without being intercepted). Instead, kinetics and lasers are used; a particularly intense bombardment is enough to disable them, though the bombarding ships are hit. The NRT fleet around the Mun inflicts further damage onto the fleet, destroying several ships. This allows the NRT to make a counter attack, damaging the TKF mass drivers as well.

On Kerbin, the TKF begins their advance into NRT territory, and aside from a few stragglers, the NRT submarine fleet has been found and destroyed.

You may have noticed the lack of action on Minmus. That’s somewhat my fault—I tend to think about the Mun and the Moon quite often, but not Minmus. In any case, I would guess that the strategic goals on both sides for Minmus would be to prevent any resources from leaving that mun.

Next Step

The NRT has taken serious damage, but is still holding on. Though the many initial losses were quite demoralizing, the victories at Kermanov and the Mun have them hoping not all is lost. The LKO fleet joins up with the healing Kerbostationary fleet, and the laser submarines remaining make occasional attacks against TKF platforms before diving.
    With much of both space fleets damaged, much of the activity turns to the ground. During the attack on the platforms, the TKF forces made some progress against the NRT when they were distracted. I imagine the ground forces would hide in underground fortifications, before coming out and making advances against the other side. As long as space superiority is not fully guaranteed, I think the war would mostly consist of hiding in fortifications from ortillery, followed by brief advances when the spacecraft are unable to fire on the ground. In the meantime, small ground/aerial drones would make precision attacks while being particularly difficult to find and destroy.

QqpWbEi.png

A small recon drone

In this scenario, quick mobility may or may not help—it may, because it allows more ground to be covered in the attack, while it may not, because the speed advantage doesn’t matter much in brief attacks. Even if space superiority is achieved, other weapons such as the aforementioned drones could cause great damage if they catch a tank in the open, trying to charge through at top speed. Therefore, I see smaller vehicles becoming more dominant. Given the slow progress of the ground war, I only really see this becoming the winning factor if the other side is completely defeated in space yet continues to fight on, despite bombardment. Of course, this interpretation of ground warfare could be very flawed—however, Kerbin is sufficiently similar to Earth to the point that websites on ground warfare (that I looked over) might provide more “preferable” interpretations.

    Back in space, the one who can prevent resources from reaching Kerbostationary will win—with transport links to Kerbin cut, the Mun and Minmus will be key suppliers of resources. If the supply chain is disrupted the orbital stations will gradually become more and more unable to repair itself after the attacks, forcing them to surrender.

    How might this war end? I honestly don’t have a good answer—its for you to decide, I suppose. If I have to give one, I would say that a decisive victory where one side surrenders is unlikely, more an agreement with some concessions.

   Demographics

    The planet of Kerbin will probably outnumber the colonies by a factor of 10 to 1, even in a heavily colonized system—the youth emigrating Kerbin are doing so precisely because they are outnumbered, after all. Other youth would probably spend their time in VR worlds. I suspect a significant portion of the Kerbin population would reside in massive arcologies, in response to the environmental crisis and possibly overpopulation.

    As mentioned earlier, the population of Kerbin would be considerably older on average than the rest of the worlds, with low population growth.

 

    Kerbin orbital space would be the most populous area of outer space, as a result of proximity. The population would reside in space settlements, likely spinning at one G. In orbital space, I think the main concentration of habitats would be in Kerbostationary orbit, or near the Mun or Minmus. Near the two moons, the habitats can easily utilize the resources of said moons. At Kerbostationary, one gets the benefits of Kerbin resources. Lastly, LKO may be populated with space hotels, and the private space stations of the wealthy and the powerful of Kerbin, perhaps.

    The Mun itself will be home to a sizeable population. As time goes by, it may not have the significant surface populations of Duna, Eve, and Laythe, but the population will be assuredly higher than the worlds like Moho. However, this is more a measure of permanent residents—significantly more may work on the Mun for several weeks at a time, before flying back to Kerbin.

    Minmus would have a relatively small population owing to its small size, and perhaps low gravity, in my opinion. However, it is a good transportation hub for spacecraft, both those that can head down to Kerbin for very little delta-V, and for low-thrust interplanetary ships that would be affected by Kerbin’s gravity closer in. As a result, there would be a lot of visitors and tourists, in addition to some part time workers. In the end, however, Minmus may begin to lose its tourism once interplanetary travel becomes increasingly less expensive.

Trade

The Kerbin system always will have something to export: people, though it may not necessarily be at Kerbin’s benefit. Additionally, its well-established industry can deliver high-quality products that may be quite cheap, if one considers that few transportation costs are associated before the manufacturing takes place. Lastly, it will have a solid base for an entertainment industry.

Before transportation costs from Kerbin fall enough for their products to be nearly as cheap, the Mun and Minmus would be the main production sites of equipment and infrastructure. Minmus could exploit its low-delta V requirements to build stations in low orbit with aerobraking vessels, eventually using a small, low power mass driver. Minmus would also be favored for building equipment for planets as well. The low delta-V needs may also make it the best place for the first major orbital space settlement, since all other sources of building material would take much more delta-V.

Eventually the Mun would become a more dominant exporter. Why? As space programs become more affordable, a lot of the land on Minmus might be claimed (especially if no authority exists to oversee that), while the Mun would have much greater land availability.

 

In my opinion, the Kerbin system is quite self-contained, and should be able to produce most of the resources it needs, though there could certainly be some major exceptions, like rare metals found more commonly in asteroids. On the other hand, the colonies would all have to depend on Kerbin early on, and later on, almost all resources that other colonies lack, Kerbin can provide.

Next chapter, we will explore the culture of Kerbin through a short story...

Thanks for Reading!

Next: The Kerbin System In A Colonized Kerbol System, Part Three

 
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23 hours ago, Kosmonaut said:

How will you deal with the radiation

How will you deal with the comms-delay

As for radiation, putting enough dirt/material between a equipment/Kerbals should be enough to keep them safe.

Comms-delay shouldn't be too extreme for Duna, but it would certainly make Dunans more isolated and more distinct from Kerbin, when compared to an equivalent Mun colony. 

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THE KERBIN SYSTEM IN A COLONIZED KERBOL SYSTEM: PART THREE

Chapter XXXIII of Imagining a Kerbal Future

The Kerbin System: An All-Exposition Short Story

xKKGii2.png

Ahead of you, an arcology stands like a mountain, tapering off until it becomes nothing but a thin line stretching into the skies. Only 30 minutes before, you were up in the north, boarding the vactrain that has taken you here, at the equator. Behind the massive arcology, Kerbol shines with great radiance. You stroll your way into an elevator barely larger than the front section of the vactrain car. This, thankfully, is not the elevator to space, the one you’ve longed to take. The Mun has gone around a few times since you filed your application, and it has finally been accepted. You’ve had enough of the people down on this orb—life is well and good on Kerbin, but there’s little to do aside from living your days out in VR realms.

The Spaceside Dream, they called it. Out in space, where everyone around isn’t so ancient and absorbed by matters on Kerbin, where distinction is more equally achievable by anyone.

The massive elevator cabin is just ahead, but of course some horrendously long security complex stands in your way. The process is quite literally straightforward, as you simply walk in a line as the system scans everything on you and your little case. The cabin that awaits you at the end of the tunnel is clean, if especially cramped. Each of the two cabins on the lift are two floors tall, one cabin on each side. The floor is roughly rectangular, with rounded edges. There’s a good 40 seats, most of them filled up. You stow your little case into the booth above, and settle into the “window” seat.

GxgiKgb.png

Most of the fellow kerbals on the ride are quite young. As you sip Mystery Goo, you find yourself discussing the reasons for coming on the ride. All of them seem to be coming to space for reasons similar to yours—to escape the planet that’s holding them back. You ask them where they’re headed.

“Me? I’ll probably buy a hole on one of the Kerbostationary toruses. I want to visit Kerbin every once in a while, I just don’t want to live there.”

“I’m heading out to Minmus. I hear the hotels there are overbooked and all, but I’ll probably spend a few nights there for a planet to head off to after that. I’ll probably ask some people who’ve come from those planets and ask them what’s up.”

“My destination is the Rockomax Cylinder out near the Mun. I love the scenery of Kerbin, it’s the people that are messing it up. The cylinders might take some getting used to, but the scenery is basically the same, right?”

“Laythe. No need to worry about a meteor smashing my dome and sucking the air out!”

“Well, I’m off for the Edball Kerman—”

“The interstellar spaceship?!” everyone else cries out.

He seemed quite taken aback by the response, to say the least.

“Yeah. It’s not like I’m close to anyone on Kerbin, and I just know the Kerbol system will be uninteresting sometime. On the other hand, working with a group with the purpose of settling new worlds! Now that’s what I’m looking for.”

Pointing towards you, one of them asks, “So, where are you headed?”

“Well… I’m in no rush to leave the Kerbin system. I have a few credits to spend, I want to visit the worlds ‘round Kerbin first-hand before picking.”

y6tBmFe.png?1

Crossroads Station expands into view. Concentric rings spin in unison, and a long beam sticks out of the core—the dock. Puffs of white eschew from thrusters on little ships. Three of them merge on a much larger ship, which appear to have backward-placed, pitch black wings and shining fuel tanks at the bottom. Huddled on the upper half are multi-colored shipping containers with corporate emblems emblazoned through shining displays. As you enter the station, you are again greeted by another security tunnel—as a fragile space station, security is of the utmost importance.

Crossroads is first and foremost a transportation hub, so there are few residential units. However, you decide to take a look at the few that do. They’re compact, to say the least. Just large enough for the necessities and a place to rest, and cramped enough for practically nothing else.

Your interface recommends the direct flight to Jebediah City on the Mun. Why not, you think, and a pod slides you off to the dock. Your mass, and that of your case are both measured with great precision. Then they charge an extra fee! You recall some advertisement by Chung Atomics saying something about “every gram counts.” Apparently this saying is the law, out in space. You strap into a rather flimsy looking flight couch, and the gravity cuts away. After some slight nudges, the gravity returns, though hardly at the strength before. You consult your interface, and begin some reading on Jebediah city…

    A shining city in the hill awaits you. Well, more a lava tube, but same thing. After landing at the spaceport and taking the pods down the tunnel, a grand park sprawls in front of you, surrounded on all sides by massive skyscrapers. “Local time,” so to speak, is 1:29. A mere few seconds later, the orange glow on the horizon shifts gradually to a sky blue, and a completely artificial kerbol broadcasts its light upon the city. Also at this particular moment, an adbot flies past expounding the “decadent nature of Kerbin” and how this replication of a Kerbin morning was a reminder of a declining empire, one that the Mun should distance itself from. It is quickly drowned out by the praises of the governing Rockomax Kerbodyne Corporation heralded by much more sophisticated adbots with shinier holograms.

    That singular adbot has you thinking: what do the people out here think of Kerbin? You approach a slightly older kerbal in a rather comfortable Rockomax jumpsuit. The interface greets you with a quick profile, a citizen of Kerbin, but part-time worker on behalf of Rockomax Kerbodyne. He appears to do the same for you as well.

    “Hello!”

    “Hi! Would I be right in guessing that you’re looking for some questions about the Mun?”

    “Well, yes.”

    “Ah. There’s a great amount of you Kerbals from Kerbin fumbling about. First question?” he asks equal parts bored and looking for a surprise.

    “What do you think of the Mun?”

    “It’s where I work for a good hundred days, fly back to Kerbin to spend some of the earnings just enjoying life, then flying back up again,” he says, in a well-rehearsed manner.

    “Have you ever thought about living here?”

    “No, there’s more to do down at Kerbin that just doesn’t exist in a work city like this one.” he continues, “and as for the few cities that are mainly for living, a concerning amount of them want to become totally independent from Kerbin, which to myself just doesn’t seem sound!”

    “Thanks for your input.”

    “Good luck! Hope you find a good place to live.”

    Now you feel rather tempted to travel to the “living cities”, that he described. Astra Point appears to be one of them. After shooting across the Munar lowlands on a maglev, the covered domes of this city come into view. After getting out of the station, you meet a long-time resident of the Mun.

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    “The Mun? Well it is quite a nice place. Enough unlike Kerbin to be distinct from that world, but close enough so that you can talk to anyone there, if need be.”

    “Anything of note on living here?”

    “As with anything on this particularly big rock, any sort of resource usage is heavily restricted. Some places in the city are rather austere for that reason, I must say.”

    “Reminds me of the space station I passed through on the way over to the Mun.”

    “I guess that’s a general rule for space living, unless you happen to be wealthy.”

    “What about Kerbin?” you ask.

    “Well, I must admit I don’t think much of it.” she continues, “We depend on it for trade and entertainment, but even this city by itself is fairly self-sufficient. Much of the tourists are rather annoying…  I’m not talking about you, more the stupidly-rich ones who act as if they own this land, which sadly they do! There’s a reason I left Jebediah City; that and those annoying adbots!”

    Before you choose your next destination, you feel an urge to gaze at the Munar surface. At Airlock 12, locally known as the “tourist hole”, you are suited up by the tourist-specialized robotic helpers, who remind you to “keep your helmet on at all times”. After jumping whole meters into the air (your interface reminds you “into the vacuum” is more technically correct), you stumble and fall over, but with practice you become used to it. The tour route leads you to an odd looking contraption. Produced right here on the Mun, it is the first known example of a drink rocket launcher, capable of using the strange properties of Munar drinks to propel bottles off the low-gravity world, before slamming into this same world a few seconds later.

 

    Once the tour is complete, you stumble back into the airlock, and with a whoosh, air is blasted into the chamber, and immediately thereafter your suit is scrubbed and cleaned vigorously. As you step out of the chamber and back to the city, you suddenly notice just how sterile the airlock area is—the people of the Mun do not fool around when it comes to the dirt here.

9ES0LUS.png

    You’ve never seen Kerbin as nothing more than a marble before. You’ve arrived at the mint ice cream world, Minmus. The mint ice cream world, not just in appearance, but for the largest mint ice cream factory known to the Kerbol system. No ice cream you’ve ever tasted has such a high creaminess to it; you’ve also never seen an ice cream with such a high priceyness to it, either. This seems to be quite the theme of this part of the station, with its sleek, bright corridors and vegetation right from Kerbin, and not any of the miniature trees you’ve seen earlier. Especially near the spaceport, you notice some interesting decor and strange customs; as the main gateway to the rest of the Kerbol System, the local culture has taken inspiration. After some distance, you begin to find the more “normally priced” areas of Minmus, but even here, the housing units are filled up and still rather expensive.

    You visit one last location before choosing. The Wernher von Kerman cylinder. Here, the artificial Kerbol does not arc its way across the sky. Instead, it is simply located at the center of the cylinder section, its light radiating in much the same way as the equatorial Kerbol. The gravity is uncannily familiar—you weigh just the same on Kerbin, but something simply feels a little different...

    Here, the consensus on Kerbin is a little like that on the Mun. They are even more dependent on Kerbin for resources and business, and complain a little about the people of Kerbin, who they see as rather unappreciative of their relative safety and lack of perspective. As for the station itself, it is a somewhat different feeling from Crossroads, due to the cylindrical nature of the settlement, and because the station is less tourist-oriented. Now you choose where you want to live; where will it be?

Role and Conclusion

It seems as if the role of Kerbin is the perceived heart of a powerful but dying empire, as its residents look more inwardly and gradually lose influence with the rise of the space states. The Mun might be the “space factory” of the Kerbin system, using its vast resources for construction and manufacturing to the rest of the system. Minmus is Space Macau/Hong Kong ( @MatterBeamhas pointed out, however, that the Channel Islands are a better analogy for their proximity to the home country)—a spaceport bustling with tourism mostly independent of Kerbin, but very much dependent on it for protection. The orbitals would be mostly dependent on Kerbin for their economy and resources, but even they might try to wean themselves away.

Overall, the Kerbin system will remain central to Kerbal civilization—but there is no doubt that they will be in for a time of upheaval.

Thanks for Reading!

Next: The Duna System In A Colonized Kerbol System, Part One

Questions for the next chapter:

What issues might confront a colonized Duna system?
What might a Dunan government be like, and how might it interact with other worlds?
Over what causes might Duna fight?
What would you like to see in the next chapter, that isn't present now?
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