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NASA SLS/Orion/Payloads


_Augustus_
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Oh, and one other thing. Humans have only been around for about 50,000 years. Our evolutionary line split from the chimps about 4-5 million years ago.

The sun, on the other hand, is likely to remain stable for billions of years. So it takes breathtaking optimism about our species's endurance to imagine that we have to worry about what will happen when the sun runs out of fuel. And even in that case, well, we have some time to worry about it later.

If I were to rate the risks to the human species, man-made ones would all be higher than things like asteroids or solar exhaustion. Climate change, war, intentional or unintentional creation of a deadly plague -- these seem like the most likely threats to humanity.

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4 minutes ago, mikegarrison said:

Oh, and one other thing. Humans have only been around for about 50,000 years. Our evolutionary line split from the chimps about 4-5 million years ago.

The sun, on the other hand, is likely to remain stable for billions of years. So it takes breathtaking optimism about our species's endurance to imagine that we have to worry about what will happen when the sun runs out of fuel. And even in that case, well, we have some time to worry about it later.

If I were to rate the risks to the human species, man-made ones would all be higher than things like asteroids or solar exhaustion. Climate change, war, intentional or unintentional creation of a deadly plague -- these seem like the most likely threats to humanity.

Still pretty cool how our biggest threat is ourselves. Not a good situation to be in, but it does show that we've come very far.

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6 hours ago, mikegarrison said:

One huge problem with the "manned spaceflight is a waste, we should send more probes" argument is the question of what the probes are for. If we are never going to go to Mars, for instance, why are we bothering to send probes there? What advantage is there is learning about Mars? If we are never going anywhere except Earth, then we should be spending all that space science money on programs that study the Earth and gather data about Earth.

Who cares if there is/was life on Mars if we're never going to Mars anyway?

Why learn about particle physics? Because it is interesting.

The "backup plan" argument for human expansion into space includes the fact that the technology to actually colonize another world like Mars comes with the ability to mitigate many existential threats from outside (planet-killer events). I think an argument can be made for us trying to avail ourselves of our "cosmic endowment."

 

6 hours ago, mikegarrison said:

Nothing magic about space. If every space dollar returns 7 to the economy, then that means every highway dollar would also return 7 -- plus we would have a highway. Every health care dollar would also return 7, plus we would be healthier. Etc.

If the argument for space exploration is that it is a government stimulus program for the economy, then it's stupid. We could have government stimulus programs that also have more direct benefits for us right here at home.

The goal of people like Bezos would be to extract value from resources in space. Not impossible, but I'm unsure where the economics turn a corner.

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42 minutes ago, tater said:

The goal of people like Bezos would be to extract value from resources in space. Not impossible, but I'm unsure where the economics turn a corner.

Actually, I'm pretty certain Blue Origin is the "build libraries" phase of Bezos's wealth. The part where, once he's built up more wealth than is even meaningful on a human scale, he decides to do something beneficial with it. (See also the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Carnegie Corporation, the Ford Foundation, etc.)

But it might also just be a "I win if I go to the moon before Bill Gates does" move.

Edited by mikegarrison
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11 hours ago, tater said:

Why learn about particle physics? Because it is interesting.

The "backup plan" argument for human expansion into space includes the fact that the technology to actually colonize another world like Mars comes with the ability to mitigate many existential threats from outside (planet-killer events). I think an argument can be made for us trying to avail ourselves of our "cosmic endowment."

 

The goal of people like Bezos would be to extract value from resources in space. Not impossible, but I'm unsure where the economics turn a corner.

The economics turns a corner when environmental costs (which are currently generally ignored) are factored in. You can't swing a dead caribou these days without running into environmental group opposition to resource extraction projects. It'll eventually become easier and cheaper to mine asteroids than fight the opposition.

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14 hours ago, tater said:

The goal of people like Bezos would be to extract value from resources in space. Not impossible, but I'm unsure where the economics turn a corner.

If Elon Musk is right about AI controlled killbot swarms, I might want to move to Mars.  

Eventually they'll be a drone swarms arm race, or predictive AI that lets people be controlled, so people might want to go to space to avoid it.  Sounds farfetched, but actually:

http://stargate.inf.elte.hu/~seci/fun/Kurzweil, Ray - Singularity Is Near, The (hardback ed) [v1.3].pdf

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7 minutes ago, DAL59 said:

If Elon Musk is right about AI controlled killbot swarms, I might want to move to Mars.  

Eventually they'll be a drone swarms arm race, or predictive AI that lets people be controlled, so people might want to go to space to avoid it. 

What a fearmonger. And how would you be safe on Mars?

Also turn down the Scifi a little.

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4 hours ago, Canopus said:

Also turn down the Scifi a little.

Thats exactly what Musk said in the documentary: people dismiss rouge AI because they see it in movies too often.  

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4 hours ago, DAL59 said:

If Elon Musk is right about AI controlled killbot swarms, I might want to move to Mars.  

I guess you'd just find more there...

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4 hours ago, DAL59 said:

people dismiss rouge AI

The only red AI I remember seeing anywhere would be HAL in 2001 1200px-HAL9000.svg.png... Or by red do you mean Russian? :D

(Yes, I'm being pedantic. I've been seeing "rouge" instead of "rogue" far too often on these forums lately. Rouge is the french word for red, and seeing it in place of rogue has me seeing red :mad:!)

Not sure what AI has to do with SLS payloads, except maybe that HAL could have done a better job of designing the SLS... Or are we talking about AI-controlled prospecting/mining probes launched on SLS?

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9 hours ago, StrandedonEarth said:

Or are we talking about AI-controlled prospecting/mining probes launched on SLS?

We're just waiting for the breaking news...

Spoiler

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTws3VXUKZMzTNxVNuPnyJ

 

EDIT : Sorry for the stern references.

Edited by YNM
Again, sorry.
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12 hours ago, StrandedonEarth said:

Not sure what AI has to do with SLS payloads,

Youve been here long enough to now the titles of the threads often have little to do with their content... :rolleyes:

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On 4/28/2018 at 2:54 PM, DAL59 said:

If Elon Musk is right about AI controlled killbot swarms, I might want to move to Mars.  

You do realize you're easier to kill on Mars than on Earth, right? Just increase CO2 content, or depressurize the habitat, or do any simple thing, and you're gone. This is part of why a Mars Revolutionary War makes no sense.

Heck, you could die by accident before any rogue AI gets to you.

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5 hours ago, DAL59 said:

Youve been here long enough to now the titles of the threads often have little to do with their content... :rolleyes:

And you've been here long enough to know that they should. Get back on-topic please, guys. 

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A plus of recent official statements about the state of Mars exploration is that we can stop talking about it in this thread, because there is no possible way NASA is still flying SLS in the dim future when they organize a manned Mars mission. I'm not saying it will be any other specific LV, but I don;t see it being SLS, even if the New Space next gen LVs fail, there will be lessons learned to make something better than SLS can ever be.

Edited by tater
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58 minutes ago, tater said:

A plus of recent official statements about the state of Mars exploration is that we can stop talking about it in this thread, because there is no possible way NASA is still flying SLS in the dim future when they organize a manned Mars mission. I'm not saying it will be any other specific LV, but I don;t see it being SLS, even if the New Space next gen LVs fail, there will be lessons learned to make something better than SLS can ever be.

SLS was practically strangled in the crib.

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2 hours ago, _Augustus_ said:

Boeing is now running propaganda promoting and taking credit for SLS, acting like Dragon 2 doesn't exist, claiming FH is useless, etc.

http://nasawatch.com/archives/2018/04/boeings-mislead.html

I hate to see that. -1 respect for Boeing. Shouldn't competitors in spaceflight respect eachother to some degree? Jeff Bezos congratulated Elon on Falcon Heavy, NASA has a plaque thing with names of both American and Soviet cosmonauts who have fallen, et cetera et cetera.

I hope Boeing apologizes. You can't say stuff on the internet anymore because people will drop the truth on you, and if you are a propaganda master, you don't want that to happend!

EDIT: Elon Musk also kind of does a propaganda thing by saying other companies have no chance, but he does not spread lies. Elon Musk is more like a super villian monopolist, less an evil dictator.

Edited by NSEP
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8 minutes ago, NSEP said:

I hope Boeing apologizes. You can't say stuff on the internet anymore because people will drop the truth on you, and if you are a propaganda master, you don't want that to happend!

EDIT: Elon Musk also kind of does a propaganda thing by saying other companies have no chance, but he does not spread lies. Elon Musk is more like a super villian monopolist, less an evil dictator.

Musk may not spread lies but neither does boeing, Both vastly overestimate their importance in a non existant mars mission though.

I think it‘s funny that people get so peeved about them taking some of the wind out of SpaceX hypesails though.

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Why... Competition is good. Hope SpaceX (or any other space launch provider / rocket builder) stands proudly above that and lets the facts of his product speak for themself. I mean Falcon 9, BFR, SLS, Delta IV, Vulcan, New Glenn, ... they all have their strengths and weaknesses. NASA or any other public/private entity seeking launch services would be well counseled, if they chose the launch vehicle which would be best served for the intended purpose.

I guess the main problem right now is that there is no direction as to where the space program of NASA (or any other space agency on earth) is headed for. Okay, there is some unmanned exploration and there is the notion to go to the Moon Mars Moon, but again, beyond colorful posters and PowerPoint presentations, I do not see an agenda or strategy, which survives longer that the legislative period of any given administration. So let's be honest, right now, however much we want it to, there is not much incentive to go to the Moon or Mars with a manned space ship.

As such, the SLS will probably die a slow, lingering death, probably after the next elections, as NASA or whomever can no longer justify pouring billions upon billions of dollars into that bottomless pit that the SLS is.

At the same stage I do hope that as many launch providers as possible, in conjunction with NASA and other space agencies are continuing to explore space as much as possible, learning to build, fabricate and live in space, because I believe the only reason for us to go to space, to the Moon and Mars (and even beyond) is for monetary reasons. Nothing more and nothing but. IMHO everyone stating he wants to go to Mars for scientific reasons is a bit naive, since probes can achieve most of the science that a manned mission can for a fraction of the cost. We will only go manned to other planetary bodies if there is money to be gained.

To that end, I must conclude that we will probably see something like the cislunar initiative that ULA advertises (probably or most certainly not exclusive to ULA). Everything else will follow at some stage, not vice versa. So, let's hope, that there are as many launch providers as possible to show alternatives to a money-eating SLS, as that is IMHO the only way to justify spending so much money on space (exploration/exploitation/...).

Steps off soap box... :)

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