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1 hour ago, cubinator said:

A rocket lands itself on a platform on the ocean and no one bats an eye.

Oh right, another launch and landing. Flies more often than the Vancouver - Whitehorse airliner. Getting to the point where it's only worth watching in person...

Oh yeah, any confirmation that the last landing was in fact successful, and the boat held on to it?

Edited by StrandedonEarth
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1 hour ago, Scotius said:

It's almost as if spaceships are becoming almost as safe and predictable as airliners.

We're not there yet, but Starship might take it even further.

I don’t think this will really be the case. R-7/Soyuz also probably has a low number of accidents compared to successful flights but we still don’t consider it to have airliner reliability.

But just having regular missions with an SHLV in the form of Starship, instead of treating each launch like an experiment (Saturn V/Energia) will be impressive in its own right, regardless of reliability.

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36 minutes ago, tater said:

Airliners are ridiculously safe. I'd consider any launch vehicle ridiculously safe if it was 1/100 as safe as an airliner.

Chart: The Most Dangerous Ways to Travel in the U.S. | Statista

Granted, rockets would be skewed due to the long distances of each journey, but if it can come within spitting distance of a motorcycle in any statistic that will be groundbreaking.

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Airliners have a fatal event about 1 in every 10,000,000 departures.

Distance traveled is a poor metric I think, per trip seems better. Regardless, almost nothing we do is safer, airliners are pretty astounding.

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On 7/8/2022 at 3:01 PM, Pthigrivi said:

Elon also abandoning the twitter deal. This comes as some relief to me as that never made sense and he can stay focused on all this^ cool stuff. I guess the lawyers will hammer out the termination settlement. 

Elon *wants* to abandon the Twitter deal, but it's not nearly that simple. If he can't negotiate some agreement with Twitter, then it's going to end up in court, and most legal experts seem to be predicting Musk will lose and be forced to buy Twitter at his offered price.

Anyway, this has the possibility of being a much bigger drain on his attention, although I assume he hires people to take care of stuff like this for him.

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2 hours ago, mikegarrison said:

this has the possibility of being a much bigger drain on his attention, although I assume he hires people to take care of stuff like this for him.

It had the potential to be disastrously distracting from the start.  Effectively a Billionaire Tantrum - I don't like it, so I'm gonna buy it and fix it - without any real thoughts, no plan and it being so far outside of his wheelhouse that he had no idea what ocean he was in. 

Edited by JoeSchmuckatelli
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7 hours ago, Ultimate Steve said:

Chart: The Most Dangerous Ways to Travel in the U.S. | Statista

Granted, rockets would be skewed due to the long distances of each journey, but if it can come within spitting distance of a motorcycle in any statistic that will be groundbreaking.

A bit off topic, but that makes busses so safe? Excepted them to be in the 1-3 range but they are much safer than rail but drive in traffic. 
And ferries so dangerous. Granted an large accident will screw this and they don't travel far compared with planes. 

4 hours ago, mikegarrison said:

Elon *wants* to abandon the Twitter deal, but it's not nearly that simple. If he can't negotiate some agreement with Twitter, then it's going to end up in court, and most legal experts seem to be predicting Musk will lose and be forced to buy Twitter at his offered price.

Anyway, this has the possibility of being a much bigger drain on his attention, although I assume he hires people to take care of stuff like this for him.

Well he has an bail out clause, that will cost him one billion but don't see how he can not take that. 
See two options here: It was an tricks to sell down in Tesla who he see as overvalued without damaging its stock price. 
Or he want an lower price for twitter, stock price is down a lot and will fall a lot if he pulls out. 
Even the first option might be settled i court to save a billion $, 
 

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8 minutes ago, Flying dutchman said:

Mainly because of professional drivers I think.

Obviously but it don't explain the below train numbers. Thinking about it most busses spend most of their time in city centers were speeds are low and its hard to get killed in an car, or on very safe highways who also don't have much causality. 
Yes its cross country busses but especially in the US I don't expect them to be much of the passenger millage.

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1 hour ago, Flying dutchman said:
3 hours ago, magnemoe said:

A bit off topic, but that makes busses so safe? Excepted them to be in the 1-3 range but they are much safer than rail but drive in traffic. 

Mainly because of professional drivers I think.

It might be because the graphic is showing fatalities per billion passenger-miles, not fatalities per billion miles. If a crowded bus has between 30 and 50 people on board then its passenger-miles number is multiplied dramatically in comparison to a passenger car that may only carry one or two people.

Add to this the fact that most buses operate at relatively low speeds. Accidents may be every bit as common but actual fatalities are going to be extremely rare because you're just not traveling fast enough to have serious injuries. That's probably why the number is higher for trains; train accidents are more likely to kill you.

Of course, so are plane accidents. But planes go much faster much faster than trains so the passenger-mile number will be skewed in their favor.

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26 minutes ago, RealKerbal3x said:

Static fire? Looked like it.

No overpressure warning to neighborhood, not a static fire.

My guess is preburner test, a lot of engines, and too much LOX/CH4 down below?

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Just now, tater said:

No overpressure warning to neighborhood, not a static fire.

My guess is preburner test, a lot of engines, and too much LOX/CH4 down below?

My understanding was that any test involving CH4 loading needs an overpressure notice, but something may have changed (either it's not needed anymore, or residents were discouraged from posting them online)

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4 hours ago, sevenperforce said:

Add to this the fact that most buses operate at relatively low speeds. Accidents may be every bit as common but actual fatalities are going to be extremely rare because you're just not traveling fast enough to have serious injuries. That's probably why the number is higher for trains; train accidents are more likely to kill you.

That, plus buses are heavy. In a collision between two cars, there might easily be multiple fatalities because they bring each other to a standstill or roll-over. While a bus colliding with a car will slow down quite bumpily, but its passengers are not likely to die in the collision. Buses colliding with other heavy vehicles is rare too. Overall, it's just very uncommon for a bus accident to have multiple fatalities.

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18 hours ago, Scotius said:

It's almost as if spaceships are becoming almost as safe and predictable as airliners.

We're not there yet, but Starship might take it even further.

Y'all done jinxed it now, hush up. :P

 

Edit: ok, seems the boom in Boca was norminal after all. But still. 

Stop using the R word or any other euphemism thereof! Y'all are ticking the nethers of some mighty powerful juju with that kinda talk. :huh:

7 hours ago, Flying dutchman said:

Mainly because of professional drivers I think.

As a bus driver, I concur. -_-

Edited by CatastrophicFailure
Badaboom.
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23 minutes ago, RealKerbal3x said:

My understanding was that any test involving CH4 loading needs an overpressure notice, but something may have changed (either it's not needed anymore, or residents were discouraged from posting them online)

Yeah no CH4, so dunno.

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44 minutes ago, RealKerbal3x said:

Didn't look that nominal, but I guess it was:

 

Woah! That did not look nominal to me! Yikes.:sealed:

The white hose got totally blown away. Lots of debris in the air.

Also something's currently on fire.

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