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If there was a fuel-air detonation, it was a very small one. There was no visible shockwave, which is what you would expect to see from a proper stoichometric fuel-air detonation. My guess is a small fuel-air detonation near the vehicle followed by conflagration of fuel-rich preburner exhaust. If there was damage to the vehicle it would have been from the initial small detonation; the conflagration should be less of an issue. Delta IV Heavy lights itself on fire at launch, after all; I can't imagine a little gout of fire is any more dangerous of a regime to the booster than the expected re-entry conditions.

The fire probably damaged GSE, though.

My guess is that they'll need to replace a half-dozen engines and a few dozen GSE parts.

I don't know why they would be running the fuel preburners without an overpressure notice. That seems dumb.

Edited by sevenperforce
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28 minutes ago, sevenperforce said:

If there was a fuel-air detonation, it was a very small one. There was no visible shockwave

As soon as I read this I realized you were right - unless there was something about the atmosphere that would not make it readily visible (like dry air)... However, South Texas... So yep. 

28 minutes ago, sevenperforce said:

don't know why they would be running the fuel preburners without an overpressure notice. That seems dumb

And possibly AnothER delay if FAA / EPA thinks that they should have issued a notice, but did not. 

 

Edit - one good thing about SX and the access we have; the KSP2 artists have lots of images of how rockets go boom.

Edited by JoeSchmuckatelli
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11 hours ago, tater said:

[snip]

I've been playing this back over and over again - tower is damaged.

 

You can see stuff lift off the arms.  There's also damage to some of the lighter structures near the top.

I don't think its major structural - but the moving parts and attendant gear look messed up.

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7 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

I don't think its major structural - but the moving parts and attendant gear look messed up.

Would not be surprised if some stuff was screwed up. Clearly they could depress the vehicle, etc, though

 

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22 minutes ago, tater said:

Would not be surprised if some stuff was screwed up. Clearly they could depress the vehicle, etc, though

 

This wasn't just an event - it was a process; watched the stream and at 5:27 there's a bunch of smaller explosions and another fire nearby (not on the ship itself).  Can't tell what it is... but they're likely not getting close tonight.

 

(5:27 by the clock in the upper corner)

Edited by JoeSchmuckatelli
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11 hours ago, tater said:

[snip]

Welllllll never mind about that "no visible shockwave" bit.

ezgif-com-gif-maker.gif

So it does look like there was definitely a detonation wave.

That being said, the massive gout of fire that followed suggests only a very minimal amount of fuel actually was involved in the detwave so hopefully that's a good sign.

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3 hours ago, sevenperforce said:

My guess is a small fuel-air detonation near the vehicle followed by conflagration of fuel-rich preburner exhaust.

That seems right, it sounds like the Raptor spin up required CH4 and that went in a place where it shouldn't meeting some LOX.

Rapid Unscheduled Static Fire?

Edited by Beccab
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Another theory I've seen on the anomaly: independently from the cause of the main detonation, the second fire with black smoke that started a bit later came from a generator on the ground - LOX reached its intake, increasing the speed of the combustion and overheating to the point of burning down. How does it sound?

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47 minutes ago, Beccab said:

Another theory I've seen on the anomaly: independently from the cause of the main detonation, the second fire with black smoke that started a bit later came from a generator on the ground - LOX reached its intake, increasing the speed of the combustion and overheating to the point of burning down. How does it sound?

Wouldn't even need to be LOX. An increase in GOX concentration could also cause an overspeed.

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