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Hurricane Irma


DerekL1963
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15 minutes ago, DerekL1963 said:

http://www.floridatoday.com/story/tech/science/space/2017/09/06/hurricane-irma-meetings-underway-kennedy-space-center-florida-spacex-launch-x-37-b/637107001/

As of this morning, both KSC and CCAFS have shifted to the lowest (pre-preparatory) levels of their respective hurricane alert levels.

They know what they're about to get hit by is massive. There is no doubt in my mind they will shift to the highest level in time.

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10 hours ago, ZooNamedGames said:

They know what they're about to get hit by is massive. There is no doubt in my mind they will shift to the highest level in time.

Agreed, but they can't shift to highest level while there is still a falcon 9 and top secret spaceplane on the launchpad.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the hurricane shouldn't do any serious damage due to the face the whole facility is essentially built to be rocket-proof?

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9 minutes ago, RatchetinSpace said:

Agreed, but they can't shift to highest level while there is still a falcon 9 and top secret spaceplane on the launchpad.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the hurricane shouldn't do any serious damage due to the face the whole facility is essentially built to be rocket-proof?

The  buildings aren't built to withstand rocket impacts. The VAB and older buildings are built to resist winds of 120 mph (200 km/h). Newer buildings (SpaceX HIF) are supposed to resist 150 mph (240 km/h).

Irma exceeded 200 mph (320 km/h) in the islands that were hit, with some gusts reaching 220 mph (360 km/h). They are expecting gusts between 130 and 160 mph if it reaches KSC.

Hopefully they can launch on friday, but if it's a scrub they will have to roll back to the HIF and hope for the best. If they do launch and get the booster to RTLS, they might not have time to move it back to safety.

They also need time to evacuate the personel. People have their homes and families to take care of, which is usually a higher priority.

Edited by Nibb31
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40 minutes ago, Green Baron said:

Islands razed, Barbuda reported to be uninhabitable, coastal areas drowned, and the next Hurricane on the way ... looks like a damaged launch facility is a minor problem me thinks ...

Yep.

 

Stay safe everyone !

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5 hours ago, RatchetinSpace said:

Agreed, but they can't shift to highest level while there is still a falcon 9 and top secret spaceplane on the launchpad.


To some degree, NASA and CCAFS certainly can.   F9/X-37 are primarily Space-X's responsibility.

Anyhow, they're starting at the lowest level because it takes time to get the machinery rolling and because progressively higher levels impose ever greater restrictions on all activities.  It makes no sense to go immediately to full lockdown-and-rideout when the hurricane is still 72+ hours away.

Getting out of Florida is fun - because there's essentially only two major highways (only one of which is effectively usable by people living along the First Coast-Space Coast-Gold Coast stretch).

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11 hours ago, Nibb31 said:

The  buildings aren't built to withstand rocket impacts. The VAB and older buildings are built to resist winds of 120 mph (200 km/h). Newer buildings (SpaceX HIF) are supposed to resist 150 mph (240 km/h).

Irma exceeded 200 mph (320 km/h) in the islands that were hit, with some gusts reaching 220 mph (360 km/h). They are expecting gusts between 130 and 160 mph if it reaches KSC.

Hopefully they can launch on friday, but if it's a scrub they will have to roll back to the HIF and hope for the best. If they do launch and get the booster to RTLS, they might not have time to move it back to safety.

They also need time to evacuate the personel. People have their homes and families to take care of, which is usually a higher priority.

I'm sorry, the IRL KSC doesn't stand for Kerbal Space Center right?.... right?.... and did they model the in-game one after the irl one

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12 minutes ago, moonsparkejo said:

I'm sorry, the IRL KSC doesn't stand for Kerbal Space Center right?.... right?.... and did they model the in-game one after the irl one

Kennedy Space Center... and yes, I don't think it was a coincidence... :wink:

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As someone who lives not 5 minutes from KSC, I can honestly say that its unlikely Irma is going to be that devastating. This is Matthew all over again. 

By the time it reaches here its likely to downgrade to a Cat 3 at a minimum, and a Cat 3 is not really anything to worry about destruction wise. What damage might be caused is something Florida has faced dozens of times before. 

South Florida is going to see some pretty bad damage obviously what with them getitng the brunt of the Cat 4 phase, but even then, I doubt the damage is going to be so bad that we're going to be Texas 2.0.  

And of course, we have to remember that its still very possible Irma will veer off into either the Atlantic or the Gulf. 

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31 minutes ago, G'th said:

As someone who lives not 5 minutes from KSC, I can honestly say that its unlikely Irma is going to be that devastating. This is Matthew all over again. 

By the time it reaches here its likely to downgrade to a Cat 3 at a minimum, and a Cat 3 is not really anything to worry about destruction wise. What damage might be caused is something Florida has faced dozens of times before. 

Hmmm, we're just a few hours apart.

And I agree. While I'm not trying to downplay this... not at all... if it comes up the center of the state like they're now projecting, it's probably going to break apart fast. Much faster than if it crossed over the state and got back into the gulf. Then it could re-energize over the hot gulf water. But over land... yeah, south Florida will get hit hard... again... but in the long run, staying over land might not be as bad.

Problem is, there's nothing anyone can really say or do until it makes it's turn late Friday or Saturday. Until we actually see how much or little it actually turns, and when, it's just a guessing game.

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36 minutes ago, G'th said:

As someone who lives not 5 minutes from KSC, I can honestly say that its unlikely Irma is going to be that devastating.  This is Matthew all over again. 

No offense, but how is your address relevant to your qualifications to judge what a storm will be like?   Especially since Matthew didn't live up to it's potential only because it veered ever-so-slightly.  Had it hit the Cape area as predicted things would have been much different.
 

2 minutes ago, Just Jim said:

And I agree. While I'm not trying to downplay this... not at all... if it comes up the center of the state like they're now projecting

That depends on which projection you choose to believe.  Setting aside the fact that we're at least 24-36 hours out from a reasonable projection of it's track on Sunday - the day of reckoning.  (And even then everything depends on the exact details turn expected to occur 36-48 hours from now, on Saturday.)

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1 hour ago, DerekL1963 said:

No offense, but how is your address relevant to your qualifications to judge what a storm will be like?   Especially since Matthew didn't live up to it's potential only because it veered ever-so-slightly.  Had it hit the Cape area as predicted things would have been much different.
 

That depends on which projection you choose to believe.  Setting aside the fact that we're at least 24-36 hours out from a reasonable projection of it's track on Sunday - the day of reckoning.  (And even then everything depends on the exact details turn expected to occur 36-48 hours from now, on Saturday.)

Because I've lived through every hurricane thats hit Florida since Andrew, and by experience know that Cat 3 storms are not going to kill us all as people are making it seem. 

Indeed, I'm old enough to remember quite clearly that when Florida got hit almost yearly by at least one major Cat 3+ hurricane we didn't have people panicking like they are now. This panic we're seeing is only so because we haven't had any major hurricanes really come through since 2004, and even south Florida hasn't gotten hit as much as it used to since that year. 

And yes had Matthew hit us properly it would be different, but not by much. Cat 5 is really the only thing that we need to be that greatly concerned with in Central Florida, because by the time any of these storms makes their way to us they've either weakened to Cat 3 or veered off into the Atlantic or the Gulf. 

 

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15 minutes ago, DerekL1963 said:

Setting aside the fact that we're at least 24-36 hours out from a reasonable projection of it's track on Sunday - the day of reckoning.

I totally, totally agree!!! :)

It's still too early to really tell where's it's going. And I say this from 20 years of living down here, and through several really big ones. Until it actually turns, which they're saying on the local news should be sometime late Saturday, it's just a guessing game. 

10 minutes ago, G'th said:

Indeed, I'm old enough to remember quite clearly that when Florida got hit almost yearly by at least one major Cat 3+ hurricane we didn't have people panicking like they are now. This panic we're seeing is only so because we haven't had any major hurricanes really come through since 2004, and even south Florida hasn't gotten hit as much as it used to since that year.

Oh, remember... what was it... 2001, 2002... we got hit by 4 big ones in a row? That was quite a year for storms!

Edited by Just Jim
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1 hour ago, G'th said:

By the time it reaches here its likely to downgrade to a Cat 3 at a minimum, and a Cat 3 is not really anything to worry about destruction wise. What damage might be caused is something Florida has faced dozens of times before. 

But you're up that creek without a paddle if it doesn't do "what is likely."

NASA wouldn't be NASA if they're not having contingency plans for "what if." 

"Well, we didn't think it would hit us so bad. And we could have prepared for it, but it's too late for that now." Not what you want to hear if it does hit the cape hard (scenario: it does turn a bit earlier and harder than expected, and now it makes landfall at the cape without being drained from its energy by moving over land from Miami onwards)

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1 hour ago, Kerbart said:

But you're up that creek without a paddle if it doesn't do "what is likely."

NASA wouldn't be NASA if they're not having contingency plans for "what if." 

"Well, we didn't think it would hit us so bad. And we could have prepared for it, but it's too late for that now." Not what you want to hear if it does hit the cape hard (scenario: it does turn a bit earlier and harder than expected, and now it makes landfall at the cape without being drained from its energy by moving over land from Miami onwards)

Being confident that its not going to destroy everything doesn't mean I'm gonna be sitting at the Cocoa Beach pier sipping my Corona while the eyewall passes by just off the coast.

I, like a lot of people who have lived in Florida for a long time, just find the panic to be unwarranted. Right now its fairly certain its only going to weaken by the time it hits here, and at worst will go back to being a Cat 4. And while yes there will be damage, its not like we're going to have huge fields of debris and destroyed homes. Irma just isn't going to be strong enough to do that to us unless it somehow morphs into a Cat 5. 

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18 minutes ago, G'th said:

I, like a lot of people who have lived in Florida for a long time, just find the panic to be unwarranted. Right now its fairly certain its only going to weaken by the time it hits here, and at worst will go back to being a Cat 4.

Agreed. Again, it's too early to really predict anything. We've been through a lot of these, and we're as stocked up and ready as we can be, so there's no need to start freaking out. 

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2 hours ago, G'th said:

As someone who lives not 5 minutes from KSC, I can honestly say that its unlikely Irma is going to be that devastating. This is Matthew all over again.

I hate to break it to you, but the latest GFS models predict that Irma will re-intensity south of Florida, becoming one of the 10 most intense Atlantic hurricanes (~900 mbar) before making landfall all up the state's east coast as a Category 5. It will quickly weaken but still strike the Carolinas at Category 3 or 2 intensity.

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1 hour ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

I hate to break it to you, but the latest GFS models predict that Irma will re-intensity south of Florida, becoming one of the 10 most intense Atlantic hurricanes (~900 mbar) before making landfall all up the state's east coast as a Category 5. It will quickly weaken but still strike the Carolinas at Category 3 or 2 intensity.

kOOL

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