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Russian Launch and Mission Thread


tater

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3 hours ago, tater said:

In almost exactly the same place? (a few cm farther way from that racetrack on MS-22).

1. In videogames, when projectiles are hitting the same place on the wall, there is probably a non-character projectile spawner shooting along the same path every time.

2. When a corpse with a hole is found, they usually check the wound channel with something like a glass pencil, also to estimate the trajectory,

Conclusion: it would be nice to put a laser pointer into the hole with back end, and see, where it shows.
Maybe there is a spawner sitting over there.

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2 minutes ago, darthgently said:

That is a lot of ammonia leakage if ammonia is the coolant and it leaked.  The color matches what one would expect from ammonia leakage from what I've been reading

If it has happened before, what are the chances it's not an impact, but some sort of fundamental issue with the structure?

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23 minutes ago, tater said:

If it has happened before, what are the chances it's not an impact, but some sort of fundamental issue with the structure?

I'm going to venture the possibility that sometimes, because of errors or engineering changes, holes need to be brazed/filled now and then.  And the material used is not up to the task given corrosiveness of ammonia and orbital temperature and pressure extremes.  Maybe.  Just looking at locations of staining seem to be at braze/weld points in these photos where a similar material may have been used.  

Edited by darthgently
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49 minutes ago, darthgently said:

That is a lot of ammonia leakage if ammonia is the coolant

It's not. Isooctane is.

54 minutes ago, tater said:

FpOyPY5XEAEPRgZ?format=jpg

 

Important context: Katya's source dismisses it as residue from fairing sep and RCS motors.

Edited by DDE
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Similar damages to very similar parts of similar craft, in the same general area as each other. The odds of micrometeorites being so selective with their points of impact (and they have all of the ISS to hit, of which the two docked Russian craft comprise roughly a percent of the surface area) seem abysmally small.

Could it be damage from fairing separation sending pieces of shrapnel to the same general area every time? Or a rough surface on whatever clamps are used to lift the craft into place for transport/assembly? Because it really seems that something is punching holes in roughly the same area of these craft. Or, well, "holes", maybe just pits, until thermal cycling cause them to finally break through.

And as somebody chillingly pointed out in the comments section of the ArsTechnica article on the story, Soyuz MS-23 was loaded with hypergolic propellant before Progress MS-21 started to leak. If the leak was caused by a process on the ground, or related to the integration of the craft somehow, it may not have been discovered before MS-23 had been through most of it already. Before the same thing happened to MS-21, the story was a micrometeorite strike, after all, so they may not have taken any precautions regarding other failure modes. And it's not like a Soyuz can be drained of hypergolics while they go over it an extra time. Apparently, it's a "point of no return", "use it or lose it" milestone in the assembly process. Worst-case scenario, they might have bricked MS-23 before they could find the flaw. Well, now at least they know where to look for it.

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32 minutes ago, Codraroll said:

Similar damages to very similar parts of similar craft, in the same general area as each other. The odds of micrometeorites being so selective with their points of impact (and they have all of the ISS to hit, of which the two docked Russian craft comprise roughly a percent of the surface area) seem abysmally small.

Could it be damage from fairing separation sending pieces of shrapnel to the same general area every time? Or a rough surface on whatever clamps are used to lift the craft into place for transport/assembly? Because it really seems that something is punching holes in roughly the same area of these craft. Or, well, "holes", maybe just pits, until thermal cycling cause them to finally break through.

And as somebody chillingly pointed out in the comments section of the ArsTechnica article on the story, Soyuz MS-23 was loaded with hypergolic propellant before Progress MS-21 started to leak. If the leak was caused by a process on the ground, or related to the integration of the craft somehow, it may not have been discovered before MS-23 had been through most of it already. Before the same thing happened to MS-21, the story was a micrometeorite strike, after all, so they may not have taken any precautions regarding other failure modes. And it's not like a Soyuz can be drained of hypergolics while they go over it an extra time. Apparently, it's a "point of no return", "use it or lose it" milestone in the assembly process. Worst-case scenario, they might have bricked MS-23 before they could find the flaw. Well, now at least they know where to look for it.

Metal quality issue, and degradation after XX days on orbit? (or Y solar cycles)

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5 hours ago, Codraroll said:

Could it be damage from fairing separation sending pieces of shrapnel to the same general area every time? Or a rough surface on whatever clamps are used to lift the craft into place for transport/assembly? Because it really seems that something is punching holes in roughly the same area of these craft. Or, well, "holes", maybe just pits, until thermal cycling cause them to finally break through.

Still have to account for the MMOD-like ejecta ring on MS-22.

8 hours ago, RCgothic said:

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At the supposed point of impact on Progress, there's also a lump visible on Soyuz.

Importantly, going back to the unflipped image without the perception-distorting effects of the circle, it looks like a paint defect rather than any sort of damage.

Although it could as well be accukulation of liquid under a layer of textile. Or spalling from the shock of an MMOD impact.

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