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Arianespace launch thread


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30 minutes ago, Ultimate Steve said:

How can you tell? Do you mean it was from a previous flight or just delayed by a few seconds?

To be precise, Arianespace is using exactly the same shots for years now. The one for the Soyuz flight were took on the seventh flight ("Vol Soyuz 07") in 2014 with Sentinel-1A. Since then, they are using this recording every single time, even during the night launch (...)

The one for Ariane 5 is even a bit older as it's the recording of VA-215 in 2013 (if I'm remembering well).

Also, the fact that Arianespace still has not given us any on-board footage of a Vega launch is pretty disappointing (to me).

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 13.3.2018 at 8:09 PM, tater said:

I don't see how this competes even with extant systems (F9), much less what might be flying in the 2020 timeframe, like NG, and possibly even a test version of BFR (not with payloads, clearly).

Customers don‘t automatically flock to the cheapest launch provider or there would already be only one in existence.

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2 hours ago, Canopus said:

Customers don‘t automatically flock to the cheapest launch provider or there would already be only one in existence.

No, governments will often only use their own, native providers. That's pretty much where Arianespace is headed, IMHO.

As it is, SpaceX is on a cadence for 28 launches this year. Forget SpaceX, Blue Origin will be flying in 2020. Part of the change from Be-4U to a cryo upper stage is scheduling. They were already ready with the Be-3U, vs working p the -4U from scratch. This gives them a huge capability increase, and they seem determined to fly in 2020. 7m fairing, and aiming at FH price levels. All other providers should be scared. Ariane 6 is a fine, throw-away rocket, I suppose. But it's not a "next generation" vehicle. Rumor has it that Blue is also securing a launch facility for their next gen rocket (NA).

So Ariane 6 comes along. It now flies one time, and has no history of reliability any more. So it's A6 vs F9 which will have flown what, 120 times by then? Then for the new contenders, it's A6 vs NG for sure, maybe BFS (far, far more uncertain, IMO)?

Edited by tater
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34 minutes ago, tater said:

So Ariane 6 comes along. It now flies one time, and has no history of reliability any more. So it's A6 vs F9 which will have flown what, 120 times by then? Then for the new contenders, it's A6 vs NG for sure, maybe BFS (far, far more uncertain, IMO)?

This new space race is really exciting. It feels so sudden - years and decades passing without any major changes in space launch industry, and suddenly now there are multiple rocket companies building almost sci-fi rockets and spaceships with unprecedented capabilities. And they’re all supposed to hit the market in the next few years. What a time to be alive.

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3 hours ago, tater said:

No, governments will often only use their own, native providers. That's pretty much where Arianespace is headed, IMHO.

As it is, SpaceX is on a cadence for 28 launches this year. Forget SpaceX, Blue Origin will be flying in 2020. Part of the change from Be-4U to a cryo upper stage is scheduling. They were already ready with the Be-3U, vs working p the -4U from scratch. This gives them a huge capability increase, and they seem determined to fly in 2020. 7m fairing, and aiming at FH price levels. All other providers should be scared. Ariane 6 is a fine, throw-away rocket, I suppose. But it's not a "next generation" vehicle. Rumor has it that Blue is also securing a launch facility for their next gen rocket (NA).

So Ariane 6 comes along. It now flies one time, and has no history of reliability any more. So it's A6 vs F9 which will have flown what, 120 times by then? Then for the new contenders, it's A6 vs NG for sure, maybe BFS (far, far more uncertain, IMO)?

SpaceX biggest problem right now are launch delays. Twenty eight per year is far short of the 60 they need to expand thier business. 

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5 hours ago, sh1pman said:

This new space race is really exciting. It feels so sudden - years and decades passing without any major changes in space launch industry, and suddenly now there are multiple rocket companies building almost sci-fi rockets and spaceships with unprecedented capabilities. And they’re all supposed to hit the market in the next few years. What a time to be alive.

This 100%. I hope the industry is still growing by the time I graduate from college, I really want to work at one of these places.

5 hours ago, sh1pman said:

almost sci-fi rockets

The definition of sci-fi rocket has surely changed over the years. It's amazing to think that soon, this could be the norm... But then again, some guy in 1950 took a poll of a bunch of other people. The poll was about whether or not three things would happen in the next 50 years - a cure for cancer, nuclear powered planes and trains as the norm, and a man on the moon. 88% thought a cure for cancer would happen, 63% thought nuclear everything would happen, but only 15% thought a moon landing would happen.

I'd like to redo that poll and see the results in several decades' time. I might poll my school.

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