A380 production to be cancelled

[PakledHostage]

Seems Airbus will soon cease production of the 747's DUFF:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/14/a380-airbus-to-end-production-of-superjumbo

[ZooNamedGames]

No surprise. Jumbos have been losing traction to long haul airliners like the 737. It's more efficient to run medium sized aircraft from airport to airport. The 747/A380 was designed in a time when passenger planes flew based on the hub-n-spoke. Flying from major airports to major airports and having smaller aircraft ferry passengers to smaller airports, but that has been phased out with more direct flights. Boeing saw this and slowed the 747 production as a result, but Airbus went all in and made a far superior machine, but direct won out and as a result, need for a jumbo has diminished greatly.

Jumbos just cost too much to maintain and fuel and can't book enough seats to be profitable. With the exception of London-Heathrow flights since the airport's flight schedule is already at capacity and the only way to move more passengers is to put more on one flight. However LHR is an exception to the norm, as most airports (that I know of) don't have that issue. ( (Granted LHR is a private airport unlike most of the US' government airports, so that's part of the difference)

The 797 is even expected to be another dual engine long body airliner to replace the 737 and 757.

[kerbiloid]

I have a bad feeling about the p2p space routes.

Edited February 15, 2019 by kerbiloid

[DDE]

1 hour ago, kerbiloid said:

I have a bad feeling about the p2p space routes.

Worry not, it’s sized perfectly for a USSF strike company.

[RealKerbal3x]

Don't worry! The Photoshop trend of adding more decks to the A380 will live on!

[kerbiloid]

Spoiler

That's how Fhloston Paradise Hotel began...

Spoiler

 

 

[DDE]

5 hours ago, ZooNamedGames said:

The 747/A380 was designed in a time when passenger planes flew based on the hub-n-spoke. Flying from major airports to major airports and having smaller aircraft ferry passengers to smaller airports, but that has been phased out with more direct flights.

That’s a rather unexpected trend. You’d think economies of scale on maintenance would favour the hub-and-spoke, while local routes would be under more pressure from terrestrial alternatives.

[YNM]

5 hours ago, ZooNamedGames said:

Jumbos have been losing traction to long haul airliners like the 737.

*777, 787 and soon 797, along with their rival A330 and A350. 737 MAX and A321 does reach a bit of this market but not too much.

10 minutes ago, DDE said:

You’d think economies of scale on maintenance would favour the hub-and-spoke, while local routes would be under more pressure from terrestrial alternatives.

Fuel has been a bit cheap, and bussiness travelers aplenty. Hub-and-spoke still works for your average holiday travelers.

Edited February 15, 2019 by YNM

[DDE]

3 hours ago, YNM said:

Fuel has been a bit cheap, and bussiness travelers aplenty. Hub-and-spoke still works for your average holiday travelers.

Well, I do come from a country where tickets to Vladivostok can be more expensive than tickets to SanFran.

[ZooNamedGames]

3 hours ago, YNM said:

Fuel has been a bit cheap, and bussiness travelers aplenty. Hub-and-spoke still works for your average holiday travelers.

Fuel cost predictions show it increasing rather significantly over the next few decades making jumbos even more costly.

[YNM]

36 minutes ago, DDE said:

I do come from a country where tickets to Vladivostok can be more expensive than tickets to SanFran.

Not saying that tickets have to be cheap ! The airline just have to make the margin, however it does it.

35 minutes ago, ZooNamedGames said:

Fuel cost predictions show it increasing rather significantly over the next few decades making jumbos even more costly.

Another problem with both 747 and A380 is that they have four engines. Though they'll still work with an all-economy class cramming of pasengers or some kind of that. The extra-long-range flights still can work with a premium price, hence they might even be all-bussiness or so !

[DDE]

21 minutes ago, YNM said:

Another problem with both 747 and A380 is that they have four engines. Though they'll still work with an all-economy class cramming of pasengers or some kind of that. The extra-long-range flights still can work with a premium price, hence they might even be all-bussiness or so !

I think all those years back Airbus did say that an all-economy would carry four figures, but that they were configuring it primarily for premium flights.

[ZooNamedGames]

1 hour ago, YNM said:

Not saying that tickets have to be cheap ! The airline just have to make the margin, however it does it.

Another problem with both 747 and A380 is that they have four engines. Though they'll still work with an all-economy class cramming of pasengers or some kind of that. The extra-long-range flights still can work with a premium price, hence they might even be all-bussiness or so !

Plus ETOPS has allowed two engine aircraft to rule where previously only 3-4 engines were permitted such as trans-Atlantic flights and tran-pacific flights. 

[YNM]

6 hours ago, DDE said:

I think all those years back Airbus did say that an all-economy would carry four figures, but that they were configuring it primarily for premium flights.

Indeed, because for quite some time only 777 was available, and it didn't have a range as long as the jumbos. Plus you can convert a part of them into a "hotel-in-the-sky" much more easily.

5 hours ago, ZooNamedGames said:

ETOPS has allowed two engine aircraft to rule where previously only 3-4 engines were permitted such as trans-Atlantic flights and tran-pacific flights.

And such is the death of A340, DC10/MD11, and L-1011...

[StrandedonEarth]

So are wide-body passenger jets going to become a thing of the past?

[YNM]

2 hours ago, StrandedonEarth said:

So are wide-body passenger jets going to become a thing of the past?

777, 787, A330 and A350 is still wide-body. It's just that having 3/4/more engines is no longer economical to the (today) equaly safe 2 engines.

Think the distinction between narrow-body and wide-body is the ability to have two aisles compared to just one. 797 will straddle this distinction.

Edited February 16, 2019 by YNM

[Shpaget]

17 hours ago, DDE said:

I think all those years back Airbus did say that an all-economy would carry four figures, but that they were configuring it primarily for premium flights.

That's because airlines make most of their money on non-economy seats.

Economy class tickets provide marginal profit, or even a loss in some cases, but serves a much more important role - generating large traveling population, and keeping the service and industry up and running. The profit comes from those relatively few individuals that are willing to pay much higher prices for the trip.

If airlines could reliably fill and sell entire plane with first class premium seats, they would make much more money, despite transporting just a fraction of passengers they currently do. They don't do that because there isn't enough demand for such configuration, but there is demand for low cost tickets, and most people are willing to suffer transatlantic flights in crammed seats if it means they don't need to sell a kidney to get over the pond.

The math is nicely displayed here:

 

[YNM]

19 minutes ago, Shpaget said:

If airlines could reliably fill and sell entire plane with first class premium seats, they would make much more money, despite transporting just a fraction of passengers they currently do.

... except for LCCs. And if the wind stays in the right way we might finally get a long-haul LCC. (there's one already but it's still not enough.)

[DDE]

1 hour ago, YNM said:

... except for LCCs

*intense Pobeda flashbacks*

[Dan Kerman]

Well, no one is ordering them... Emirates has bought the most, over 100 of them but stopped ordering anymore. Economics shows it will be cheaper to run two B787's than one A380. Flew Emirates last year but, due to distance, Houston to Dubai, it was a B777... the A380 doesn't have the range. Next week we're flying to Singapore..  A350's due to the range.

[p1t1o]

It does have the largest passenger capacity ever, and since its more modern, should last longer. So it follows that fewer would be needed by the global airline community at large and that production would not last forever.

Besides, production will only close until they come up with an A380-400-ZX49000 model to "wow" investors with at a later date.

FWIW - IMO the A380 is one of the best looking aircraft ever made. I said it so what fight me.

[StrandedonEarth]

5 minutes ago, p1t1o said:

A380-400-ZX49000

Perhaps you meant the A380-400-6000SUX

Spoiler

 

 

[Shpaget]

11 minutes ago, p1t1o said:

FWIW - IMO the A380 is one of the best looking aircraft ever made. I said it so what fight me.

I'm not a Boeing fanboy (and actually prefer Airbus), but sorry, no. 747-8 takes the title in the category of airliners.

If we consider the much wider category of all aircraft, Burt Rutan would like to have a word with you.

[p1t1o]

1 minute ago, Shpaget said:

If we consider the much wider category of all aircraft

I already was

Burt Rutan's planes all look like coathangers anyway.

[Shpaget]

May the crib mobile in your next life be adorned solely by Belugas.