[New] Space Launch System / Orion Discussion Thread

[Cavscout74]

I hate to say this, but am I the only one who thinks some of what's coming out of NASA is reminiscent of Challenger?   They are still wanting to try to launch in one breath, then say there's an 80% chance of unfavorable winds on the launch date. 

[sevenperforce]

5 minutes ago, Cavscout74 said:

I hate to say this, but am I the only one who thinks some of what's coming out of NASA is reminiscent of Challenger?   They are still wanting to try to launch in one breath, then say there's an 80% chance of unfavorable winds on the launch date. 

Overall attitude, perhaps, but at least this is vastly safer because no one is on board.

[tater]

5 minutes ago, Cavscout74 said:

I hate to say this, but am I the only one who thinks some of what's coming out of NASA is reminiscent of Challenger?   They are still wanting to try to launch in one breath, then say there's an 80% chance of unfavorable winds on the launch date. 

The rollback limitations are real. They have 2 round trips assuming it goes back to the barn Saturday. It's on the pad, they feel comfortable with the GSE after the test... why not try?

[RCgothic]

7 minutes ago, Cavscout74 said:

I hate to say this, but am I the only one who thinks some of what's coming out of NASA is reminiscent of Challenger?   They are still wanting to try to launch in one breath, then say there's an 80% chance of unfavorable winds on the launch date. 

You're about the fifth person I've seen make this comment.

[tater]

 

I'm unsure on the timing of the later October. Is the suggestion that rollback means November because the windows end up at night?

[tater]

Even if they have to roll back, there is zero reason to do it any sooner than they have to. I think it's less "gottagetthereitis" than it is the ability to look like they exhausted all options before rollback.

[RCgothic]

Windy.com is currently predicting a direct hit on Kennedy Space Center on Thursday morning.

Things can change, and different forecasters have different tracks.

Still.

Yikes.

Edited September 23, 2022 by RCgothic

[tater]

1 hour ago, RCgothic said:

Things can change, and different forecasters have different tracks.

It all depends on when it organizes, and where the center of organization is. A little west or S, and it will end up west of FL, vs the southern/crossing versions. Wait and see.

[tater]

Now officially Tropical Storm Ian.

[Beccab]

 

[tater]

 

[tater]

Track moving W a little.

 

[Beccab]

 

[intelliCom]

Well, we didn't even get a chance to see Wet Dress Rehearsal #7 this month. That's a shame.

[tater]

Tracks are trending far enough W there's a good chance they have no need to bring it back to the VAB.

[Beccab]

Things are looking worse and worse for Cape, a rollout is extremely likely now based on most models

[Cavscout74]

On 9/23/2022 at 9:39 PM, sevenperforce said:

Overall attitude, perhaps, but at least this is vastly safer because no one is on board.

True, this flight isn't putting lives at risk.  The greater concern to me, though, is that the attitude seems to have made a comeback.

[Beccab]

Possibly the last prediction before NASA takes a final decision, the models have gone even kore eastward and towards Cape. No chances of a launch this month imo

[Beccab]

Decision delayed again

[tater]

11 hours ago, Beccab said:

Things are looking worse and worse for Cape, a rollout is extremely likely now based on most models

I doubt they see anything really serious. There's shear near the coast, it might make landfall as a Cat 2—but on the opposite coast. Winds and rain? Absolutely. Nothing like a major slamming into the Cape from the SE though.

[tater]

It's funny to see reporters stunned/amazed/etc that NASA hasn't thrown in the towel and rolled SLS back.

From what I can tell their principal concern is that the workers should be at home not working, but boarding up their houses or something. That honestly doesn't concern me given the fact that they are literally on the other side of the state—anyone here from FL who would board up their house over a cat 2 hitting the opposite coast? My grandparents had retractable shutters, so "boarding up" took like an hour, anyway.

[intelliCom]

17 minutes ago, tater said:

It's funny to see reporters stunned/amazed/etc that NASA hasn't thrown in the towel and rolled SLS back.

Not rolling it back is either an act of bravery ("We will do this, like we were supposed to"), or act of coping ("Just give us another chance! We're dealing with new technology, problems like this are inevitable!").

[Beccab]

1 hour ago, tater said:

Cat 2

Ian is expected to be a Cat 4, not a Cat 2. It's been gradually increasing ever since it was first spotted

SLS can sustain gusts up to 74 knots (not sustained), which have 30% chances of showing up at Cape now. 1 out of 3 is not an acceptable chance for a 4.1 billions rocket

As others have said, Ian has decent chances to be the strongest hurricane in the Gulf in the last 17 years

[RCgothic]

 

 

[tater]

5 hours ago, Beccab said:

Ian is expected to be a Cat 4, not a Cat 2. It's been gradually increasing ever since it was first spotted

Not when it hits it's not. If it hits South FL it will be more powerful, the farther N it hits the weaker it is likely to be.

Least according to tropical tidbits.

Edited September 26, 2022 by tater