totm april 2020 Coronavirus

[tater]

Various countries have bought supplies related to COVID-19 from China and had loads of problems. Likely products rushed into production not meeting specifications. I read a report that of 1.3 million masks from China to the NL, ~600k were under spec. I also read that test kits from China have a large false negative rate (80% was the number in the story!).

I guess that's why the FDA/CDC are more strict about things as a reality check for why we haven't rushed as much to market.

[tater]

This is really interesting:

https://vimeo.com/399733860

 

Masks don't protect you from particles in the air, he's not worried about that, he says that masks keep you from touching your face (eyes/nose/mouth).

[Vanamonde]

Keep it on-topic please. Some comments have been removed. 

[kerbiloid]

6 hours ago, tater said:

Masks don't protect you from particles in the air, he's not worried about that, he says that masks keep you from touching your face (eyes/nose/mouth).

So, choose you anti-virus mask wisely.

Spoiler

Look.

Spiderman, Hulk, and the golden one below are better protection than Batman and that blue with "A"

Upd.

Spoiler

Voorheese is almost the best

And DIY edition

Spoiler

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by kerbiloid

[tater]

 

[tater]

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mathematics-life-and-death-how-disease-models-shape-national-shutdowns-and-other

 

[Shpaget]

Ok, I'm confused by this mortality (Mortality = Deaths/(Recovered + Deaths), not taking into account active cases.

Ignoring USA for a second, since they are lagging in phase compared to the rest of the countries listed, hence giving artificially high mortality, why is there such a big difference between China and Germany, and the reset of the countries listed?

Country, Other	Total Cases	Total Deaths	Total Recovered	Mortality
World	663,079	30,857	141,476	17.91%
USA	123,578	2,221	3,231	40.74%
Italy	92,472	10,023	12,384	44.73%
China	81,394	3,295	74,971	4.21%
Spain	73,235	5,982	12,285	32.75%
Germany	57,695	433	8,481	4.86%
France	37,575	2,314	5,700	28.87%
Iran	35,408	2,517	11,679	17.73%

 

While I could come up with an explanation for China (under reporting for propaganda reasons), but if we assume Germany doesn't misrepresent their numbers, how come they have pretty much the same mortality as China, when we see huge discrepancy in other countries? Sample sizes are not all that low (the reason I didn't include other countries).

 

*Numbers from 28.03.2020.

[Flavio hc16]

20 minutes ago, Shpaget said:

 

 

Ok, I'm confused by this mortality (Mortality = Deaths/(Recovered + Deaths), not taking into account active cases.

Ignoring USA for a second, since they are lagging in phase compared to the rest of the countries listed, hence giving artificially high mortality, why is there such a big difference between China and Germany, and the reset of the countries listed?

Country, Other	Total Cases	Total Deaths	Total Recovered	Mortality
World	663,079	30,857	141,476	17.91%
USA	123,578	2,221	3,231	40.74%
Italy	92,472	10,023	12,384	44.73%
China	81,394	3,295	74,971	4.21%
Spain	73,235	5,982	12,285	32.75%
Germany	57,695	433	8,481	4.86%
France	37,575	2,314	5,700	28.87%
Iran	35,408	2,517	11,679	17.73%

 

While I could come up with an explanation for China (under reporting for propaganda reasons), but if we assume Germany doesn't misrepresent their numbers, how come they have pretty much the same mortality as China, when we see huge discrepancy in other countries? Sample sizes are not all that low (the reason I didn't include other countries).

 

*Numbers from 28.03.2020.

Germany is for sure under representing his cases and death. From the start of the year they had 80k+ pneumonia cases more than other years and the other thing is that they count the death for coronavirus only if they had only that disease and not like all the others who consider people dead from corona even if they have other diseases

[DDE]

 

9 hours ago, kerbiloid said:

So, choose you anti-virus mask wisely.

 

[kerbiloid]

A decade ago this was a sci-fi.

Spoiler

(The face-recognizing drones, too)

Edited March 29, 2020 by kerbiloid

[tater]

1 hour ago, Flavio hc16 said:

Germany is for sure under representing his cases and death. From the start of the year they had 80k+ pneumonia cases more than other years and the other thing is that they count the death for coronavirus only if they had only that disease and not like all the others who consider people dead from corona even if they have other diseases

That means other countries are in fact overreporting COVID-19 deaths.

If patients are now routinely screened for COVID-19 on admission (or postmortem), and they died of a stroke, MI, terminal cancer, whatever, and they get reported as a COVID death, this is wrong-headed. A terminal cancer patient might finally die to a respiratory illness, for example, but they died of cancer, not the the secondary illness that finally ended their life.

 

 

[tater]

 

2019 is the orange line, the numbers increase year to year due to an aging pop demographic. 2020 should be above the orange line pretty much everywhere. The first 2 weeks it starts out above 2019 a little (as usual).

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by tater

[tater]

Note that those are weekly figures, so add all the lower values compared to orange (2019) together. That's 7-10k/wk now, but more like 25-30k since January.

Currently we are week 13. There were no shutdowns, etc until the next week in the US. Assuming the number continues downwards, we might have little difference in deaths from 2019.

[tater]

Putting this here for future reference:

https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202003220009

[DDE]

Moscow is going into full shutdown this week; a permit system for going outdoors is to be implemented shortly, along with punitive measures.

Unclear if other cities can emulate without 170,000 cameras.

...that, and technically the mayor is way, way overstepping his authority. Without a state of emergency, all of this is illegal.

Russia is currently at 1534 cases and 9 fatalities.

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by DDE

[tater]

That CDC chart I posted above is amazing. 2020 should be above all those other lines other than 2018 (really bad flu season). The 2015 flu season was virtually identical to the current flu season, but the population is slowly aging, so the baselines should all be higher.

What's really sad about that chart? It shows a large reduction in weekly mortality that can only come from a few possible sources, and none are government action, but personal/private action.

1. Hand washing? Are people finally washing their hands at a better rate?

2. Was initial concern focused on nursing homes and the elderly in general, which resulted in better hygiene, etc and somehow reduced the old people dying by 10k/wk?

3. Was more attention paid to proper infection control in healthcare facilities generally, reducing the number of Healthcare Acquired Infections, with a reduction in mortality from that?

4. Does the US routinely import "mundane" infections from places like China (first travel ban end of January) that result in excess deaths?

Some mixture of all of the above that none the less ends up with a 20% reduction in all-causes mortality before any national emergency was declared?

[sh1pman]

39 minutes ago, DDE said:

...that, and technically the mayor is way, way overstepping his authority. Without a state of emergency, all of this is illegal.

Good luck explaining that to the police squad when they catch you outside.

[GDJ]

1 minute ago, tater said:

 

1. Hand washing? Are people finally washing their hands at a better rate?

 

I don't see how I can wash my hands MORE unless I'm swimming in a vat of soap. They are literally getting bleached from the hand washing I'm doing at work and home.

[tater]

28 minutes ago, GDJ said:

I don't see how I can wash my hands MORE unless I'm swimming in a vat of soap. They are literally getting bleached from the hand washing I'm doing at work and home.

I've always been compulsive about it, and my wife washes her hands so much she literally has no fingerprints (like they had to waive that for her medical license since they don't show on the form).

Dunno, but the drop is striking, and remarkable. Will be amazing to see what "distancing" and other official efforts do to this. At even the current level of reduction, it will completely offset COVID-19 deaths in a few weeks for the first wave, anyway.

[GDJ]

Just now, tater said:

At even the current level of reduction, it will completely offset COVID-19 deaths in a few weeks for the first wave, anyway.

Good. I bought a turkey for Easter Dinner, and damn me to hell if I don't make my famous bacon-wrapped BBQ Turkey.

Teaser: It's so awesome it's a religious moment. 

[tater]

37 minutes ago, GDJ said:

Good. I bought a turkey for Easter Dinner, and damn me to hell if I don't make my famous bacon-wrapped BBQ Turkey.

Well, offsetting COVID isn't protective of anyone, it just means that maybe the lives saved since January were just the really fragile, and as soon as COVID hits they die to that, instead.

If it really moves the ball, and people change their habits going forward, it could easily end up being a net positive in terms of lives saved over a longer time horizon. Way up the thread I might have posted that MIT study that showed that substantially increasing hand washing at just the most busy world airline hubs would reduce pandemics by 67%. Not washing like every few minutes, just people actually washing their hands after using the bathrooms.

[Cavscout74]

2 hours ago, tater said:

Hand washing? Are people finally washing their hands at a better rate?

Just before the ban on dining at restaurants, for the first time in my life I had to wait to use the sink in a public restroom.  Not only was everyone washing hands, they were actually doing it pretty much correctly.  Considering I'm 45, that is pretty sad but at least it changed for this.

[Superfluous J]

2 hours ago, sh1pman said:

Good luck explaining that to the police squad when they catch you outside.

Make sure you explain that you pay their salary.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, tater said:

Well, offsetting COVID isn't protective of anyone, it just means that maybe the lives saved since January were just the really fragile, and as soon as COVID hits they die to that, instead.

If it really moves the ball, and people change their habits going forward, it could easily end up being a net positive in terms of lives saved over a longer time horizon. Way up the thread I might have posted that MIT study that showed that substantially increasing hand washing at just the most busy world airline hubs would reduce pandemics by 67%. Not washing like every few minutes, just people actually washing their hands after using the bathrooms.

I think it just goes to show how far does paying attention to basic hygiene really matter. There should also be some reduction in accidents, murders, suicides, and other deaths that are only preventable if there's someone else on hand. For instance, my friend's father had a stroke recently, and he only survived thanks to her brother being home. I imagine survival rate for this sort of thing is going to go up across the board, as long as hospitals aren't overwhelmed. People also don't go out and don't do dangerous things, either as part of the job, part of a hobby, or because they're violent or drunk. Instead, they spend time at home, and in many cases there's another person with them, and for people living in cities, neighbors next door as well. All this adds up to a much safer way to live. I should note, these problems are all well known, acknowledged, but the obvious solution (working from home) was never implemented at such a scale. 

I'm not sure how stress factors in all this in the US, but from what I've gathered, people are pretty calm about this (around here, at least), and are making good use of their free time, or from working from home. Stressful commutes and toxic work environment are significant contributors to mortality. That said, quarantine and a pandemic going around can be stressful, too, so I'm not sure how much we're actually gaining here.

[tater]

21 minutes ago, Dragon01 said:

I think it just goes to show how far does paying attention to basic hygiene really matter. There should also be some reduction in accidents, murders, suicides, and other deaths that are only preventable if there's someone else on hand. For instance, my friend's father had a stroke recently, and he only survived thanks to her brother being home. I imagine survival rate for this sort of thing is going to go up across the board, as long as hospitals aren't overwhelmed. People also don't go out and don't do dangerous things, either as part of the job, part of a hobby, or because they're violent or drunk. Instead, they spend time at home, and in many cases there's another person with them, and for people living in cities, neighbors next door as well. All this adds up to a much safer way to live. I should note, these problems are all well known, acknowledged, but the obvious solution (working from home) was never implemented at such a scale. 

I'm not sure how stress factors in all this in the US, but from what I've gathered, people are pretty calm about this (around here, at least), and are making good use of their free time, or from working from home. Stressful commutes and toxic work environment are significant contributors to mortality. That said, quarantine and a pandemic going around can be stressful, too, so I'm not sure how much we're actually gaining here.

Yeah, that's why the date for after some stay at home orders started will be interesting. The data ends at Week 10 (March 8 is the last day of week 10).