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And a few more posts of mixed relevance:

 

This makes me really reconsider my air humidifier.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, mikegarrison said:

It was snowing this morning at my house near Seattle. Not exactly "5-11 C".

Passing people to people, who usually control their own local temp: all the same 11C is still very chilly.  People tend to live more around the 24C range for comfort, don't they?  (So I did raise eyebrows about that one...)

All the same, I understand the seasonal variation for respiratory infections is a fact.

Edited by Hotel26

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So I posted up the thread stuff I had read in an actuarial chart.

I'll see if I can find the page. It was the % of people of each age who die to all causes. So whatever year I put, 84, say, had the same % who die as COVID-19 kills. Meaning out of 100 84 YOs, ~8 are expected to die while they are 83. For Coronavirus, out of 100 84 YOs tested positive, ~8 are expected to die. As I looked at the page, the death risks for every age bracket (only looked down to 40s) were pretty much the same from all causes vs COVID-19. My guess here is that given the fact we know that preexisting medical conditions really impact outcomes in a negative way, that the people who are on track to die in 2020 are going to be the bulk of COVID-19 victims. Not all, this is statistics, not individuals, but most. That's my guess.

Now, the COVID-19 deaths might be 100% excess deaths as a extreme boundary value, literally doubling the death rate for every age bracket. This seems unlikely, however. We have death rates for ages each year, usually as epidemiological numbers (X hundred/thousand deaths per 100,000 people in the range, typically. 80-84 is ~6000:100,000, 85+ ~13k:100,000 (the numbers are different for men/women, I'm eyeball averaging them). I'm gonna look at the 2019 numbers and the 2020 numbers next year, and I bet while different, they are not that much different.

I actually made a bet with a buddy of mine over txt this morning that if I'm wrong I'll buy him his favorite "water of life", and if I'm right, he buys me one.

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1 hour ago, Flying dutchman said:

Has anyone got potato's ?

Idiot's over here have been buying them like crazy.

Nope :( Bloody hamsters stole all the taters... We had to divert dinner plans to pasta...

 

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Flying dutchman said:

Has anyone got potato's ?

Idiot's over here have been buying them like crazy.

Same here.

Been shopping for groceries, at 8.10 am we've been at the supermarket (opens 8 am). Potatoes already sold out, noodles, flour, only a few packages left.

As you said: idiots.

Edited by VoidSquid

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Local company that actually makes TP selling them to the public now (instead of just institutions) at their normal prices.

G-P said, yeah, we're not running out, and we can make more if demand requires.

Dunno what people are going to do with extra meat and veg, presumably they have extra fridges in the garage. Guess we'll eat out as all the hoarders will hunker down and eat their hoarded food. Also, restaurants are bound to suffer, they'll be happy for customers.

 

Also:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-14/first-coronavirus-cases-reported-in-countries-across-africa

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Why do they not sell pre-packed corona survival kits?

A gauze bandage, a piece of soap, one tamiflu, a roll of toilet paper, and two potatoes.

In a paper package. Both because green-friendly and because plastic ones smoke when you are using then to light a fire.

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2 hours ago, tater said:

So I posted up the thread stuff I had read in an actuarial chart.

I'll see if I can find the page. It was the % of people of each age who die to all causes. So whatever year I put, 84, say, had the same % who die as COVID-19 kills. Meaning out of 100 84 YOs, ~8 are expected to die while they are 83. For Coronavirus, out of 100 84 YOs tested positive, ~8 are expected to die. As I looked at the page, the death risks for every age bracket (only looked down to 40s) were pretty much the same from all causes vs COVID-19. My guess here is that given the fact we know that preexisting medical conditions really impact outcomes in a negative way, that the people who are on track to die in 2020 are going to be the bulk of COVID-19 victims. Not all, this is statistics, not individuals, but most. That's my guess.

Now, the COVID-19 deaths might be 100% excess deaths as a extreme boundary value, literally doubling the death rate for every age bracket. This seems unlikely, however. We have death rates for ages each year, usually as epidemiological numbers (X hundred/thousand deaths per 100,000 people in the range, typically. 80-84 is ~6000:100,000, 85+ ~13k:100,000 (the numbers are different for men/women, I'm eyeball averaging them). I'm gonna look at the 2019 numbers and the 2020 numbers next year, and I bet while different, they are not that much different.

I actually made a bet with a buddy of mine over txt this morning that if I'm wrong I'll buy him his favorite "water of life", and if I'm right, he buys me one.

would it not be better to use 2 years in your bet? Lets say 2018 and 2019 combined. Some of them probably had a bit more life left in them. How difference can the rates be in your bet? 10% or 50%? 

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Posted (edited)

Folks, Folding@home offers crunching data on behaviour of receptor proteins for a model coronavirus. Folding@home was meant to be part of BOINC (like SETI@home and many others), but that never happened due to incompatibility and it stayed a standalone piece of software.

For any information on how to help scientists model behaviour of these molecules, which will help greatly with fight on COVID-19, visit the site.

https://foldingathome.org/

I've created a team you can join, it's called Kerbal space program forum and its number is 238062.

Edited by lajoswinkler

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2 hours ago, tater said:

Local company that actually makes TP selling them to the public now (instead of just institutions) at their normal prices.

G-P said, yeah, we're not running out, and we can make more if demand requires.

Dunno what people are going to do with extra meat and veg, presumably they have extra fridges in the garage. Guess we'll eat out as all the hoarders will hunker down and eat their hoarded food. Also, restaurants are bound to suffer, they'll be happy for customers.

 

Also:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-14/first-coronavirus-cases-reported-in-countries-across-africa

Far from all, some years ago it foolds feared an strike on delivers to grocery stores. That if even if government would call that one off fast. 
One lady was interviewed, she bought 20 liters of milk and was alone :o More headless than an goose after an sword-fight.
Some year later it was an strike on delivers to grocery stores, in Norway however it was one major chain who used its own company for supplies and they was not in that strike and the chain was rural focused so it had fairly low impact on consumers. 
Ant the toilet paper makes no sense. at all, guess its some social media explosion, however its looks like kind of an focus point, sale on it tend to draw customers for some reason, why not toothpaste? 

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Posted (edited)
So now it's a galactic pandemic? :D

 

Edited by StrandedonEarth

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15 minutes ago, StrandedonEarth said:
So now it's a galactic pandemic? :D

This is outrageous, it's unfair.

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1 hour ago, StrandedonEarth said:
So now it's a galactic pandemic? :D

Don't worry, somehow, he will survive.

5 hours ago, Flying dutchman said:

Has anyone got potato's ?

Idiot's over here have been buying them like crazy.

*looks guiltily to the freshly-bought extra-big pack of toilet paper*

Meanwhile, a tragedy in three parts.

Spoiler

2ad2383349961704251cdf51bd665e5323251964

49d19968313a54cfa5eeeb45f2511b18239257b7

e16f0b6c560a8c99bc46c0942545dae1230fd92c

@sevenperforce

Also, anyone who's heard the tale of COVID-2019 in South Korea.

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Ran into a friend at Whole Foods (which was totally normal, too expensive for panic buying, I guess), and she said that she read a paper suggesting that ACE inhibitors might be related to poor outcomes (she's a pediatrician, but her husband is a cardiothoracic surgeon). It's being looked into, but might explain the mechanism behind heart disease being a factor in poor outcomes (many of those patients are taking those drugs).

 

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Spoiler

i as a Kerbal am immune to most diseases. I only get the occasional case of food poisoning from expired snacks.

I am a bit uncomfortable. One of my grandparents is Taiwanese (don’t you DARE call them Chinese) and the other is just pretty old so I’m worried about them. I have a good friend who went to Italy for the school year (late 2019-mid 2020) and apparently his city is quarantined, and my school just shut down for 2 weeks (until further notice), and my family “stuffed” today, and wants to shut ourselves inside. I’m here now with my family with two bags of candy, a lollipop, lots of chips (crisps to the educated, Americans are stupid), an absurd amount of yogurt, cooking supplies, et cetera and I along with others am not worried just yet, just uncomfortable.

10 hours ago, Flying dutchman said:

Has anyone got potato's ?

Idiot's over here have been buying them like crazy.

*uncomfortable noises* potatoes are one of my favorite foods um Um Um anyone have a Thumper Rocket booster to shoot myself with? In all seriousness, there are some foods that are more valuable than others. Potatoes are one of them I guess?

what’s up with people buying toilet paper? Genuinely asking

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I am coming back tomorrow to the US...I bet it is going to feel really weird with all the changes in the one week I was gone. I'll probably go and play a fitting game like Half Life 2 or something

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1 minute ago, cubinator said:

I am coming back tomorrow to the US...I bet it is going to feel really weird with all the changes in the one week I was gone. I'll probably go and play a fitting game like Half Life 2 or something

This, or do all the quests in Skyim or get all the science data in KSP :o
 

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15 minutes ago, HansonKerman said:

crisps to the educated, Americans are stupid

Hey! We can all eat potato chips/crisps and enjoy them regardless of what arbitrary label they have!

I enjoyed crisps and chips in the UK, and I enjoy them as chips and fries respectively in the US. We should stand together in our love of deep fried carbohydrates!

17 minutes ago, HansonKerman said:

what’s up with people buying toilet paper? Genuinely asking

No %$#@%$# idea. Peopel were concerned that supplies of things would run out for some inexplicable reason, and bout the paper towels, TP, and hand sanitizer. The companies that make them are like, "yeah, we can make more, no worries!"

Part if it is you go to the store, and people all have TP in the cart, and you wonder what they know that you don't, so what, you throw a pack of them in the cart. Next thing you know, you're part of the problem.

The guy at the checkout was so frazzled the other night that after he rang up my small cart of goods, that included 6 bottles of wine (buy 6 get 10% off) I gave him one after he saw mine and said he couldn;t wait to get home and have some wine with his wife.

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37 minutes ago, magnemoe said:

This, or do all the quests in Skyim or get all the science data in KSP :o
 

Might send a space station to Jool, idk

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Posted (edited)

welp, all nearby stores ran out of food and carbonated water. :P

1 hour ago, HansonKerman said:

what’s up with people buying toilet paper? Genuinely asking

 

 

Spoiler
1 hour ago, HansonKerman said:

crisps to the educated, Americans are stupid

rude. they are called chips, what, are we gonna call my AMERICAN biscuits flavored buns now? 

Spoiler

no regrets

 

 

Edited by Dirkidirk
no regrets

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Posted (edited)

The TP syndrome doesn't bother me in the slightest and I'm not going to try to mull the reasons for it, either.  Why would a rational person expect there to be no 'irrational' behavior in the world?[1]

We ordered a reasonable supply of longevitous food on Friday from the supermarket goliath here and it was delivered here at home this Sunday morning at 6:30 am.  We did this in anticipation of a coming lock-down or self-quarantine.  Hardly a panicked action and now we have less reason to have to panic later.

I'm also asking my wife to absolutely minimize trips to the supermarket.  She wondered why it was so crowded and very few were using self-serve.  I wouldn't want to touch a screen there unless I was carrying a bottle of hand sanitizer.  But neither would I want to stand in line.

I think any panic behavior being exhibited is not about the risk of catching coronavirus, but is in response to the containment measures being applied and because the way we have globalization structured.  And I'm somewhat frustrated.  But I don't think it is rational for me to expect anything different, so quiet frustration is the order of the day.

I'm frustrated because I just accept that I will become infected with coronavirus this year.  (For one thing, I have a school age son.)  It will make me sick but it likely won't kill me, even though I am in the higher-end of the risk spectrum (age).  The second-most likely thing that will happen to me this year is that I will have an interruption in work and/or permanent unemployment (due to age).  This because of the economic impact of the measures chosen to 'contain' this disease.  If that happens, I may wish I was dead (rather than, say, homeless). 

Even if we are buying time e.g. to find a vaccine, we are likely to now be living with coronavirus forever (unless we get lucky with mutations).  Meanwhile, harsh to say, we are spreading the pain from the vulnerable to the whole world -- and for what is likely, in my estimation, to be a net negative outcome.[2]  And we are unlikely to learn anything about our global networks; just-in-time, single-source manufacturing; the monopoly in the production of pharmaceuticals; the dubious existence of bio-security labs or the inherent fragility of infrastructure in high-density metropolises.

How about some firewalls?  Still not palatable, are they?

 

[1] or that breaking legs or knocking out teeth [see Twitter above on the previous page] is going to make for a better world?  [c.f. 20th century]
[2] the impact of these measures adversely affect the elderly, too: especially in regard of supply of medicines upon which they rely

Edited by Hotel26

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