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2 hours ago, Cavscout74 said:

I've actually told my wife the "I have a larger chance of dying in a car accident coming home from work than I do from Covid-19" when she was worrying about me still going to work.  Almost no one sits around thinking about all the risks they face on an average day - especially younger people.  Probably anyone who did would need hefty doses of anti-anxiety meds to function.  Everyone is scared of this because its new and its in the news 24/7.    In the next year or two, when the new is gone and we're getting some natural herd immunity and hopefully a vaccine, I think we'll be seeing something more like the seasonal flu and it will just be one more thing on the long list of natural causes that kills people in their 70's and older.

 

On an unrelated note, I'd really like to know why every single company I've ever purchased anything from feels the need to inform me of their Covid-19 plans.  Seriously, if I ordered something from you online 8 years ago, I don't care how many times a day you are cleaning your physical storefront.  I've never set foot in any of my credit cards corporate offices, so unless they are telling me I don't have to pay (and no interest) for the next few months, I don't care what they have to say either. (They didn't, so I don't)

The only one that might have been useful was my gym (YMCA) that emailed to inform me their facilities will not be available during this crisis.  No problem, I understand perfectly.  But why are they still billing my credit card?  And why is that not even mentioned in the email?  

Well my boss who also is the main stockholder and founder of the company I work for is in his 70s, my mother is 81. 
Kind of glad my father just passed away two weeks ago as he was at an nursery home with terminal cancer. Couple of days later the nursery homes and hospitals went full lock-down. If you are not staff or patient you can not enter. For the nursery homes they tend to use the fire exits doors for meetings. However why are it stairs for the fire exit then most patients can not walk stairs? An ramp in an two floor building would make more sense. 
 

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>Today, he succumbed to CoViD-19.

I wish I knew his name as I will grieve today for his loss.

The world has lost a good mind and a clear thinker.  He will be missed.

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8 minutes ago, magnemoe said:

However why are it stairs for the fire exit then most patients can not walk stairs? An ramp in an two floor building would make more sense. 

Stairs are immune to power outages and are still the best way to get out of buildings in an emergency. A ramp with a reasonable slope takes a LOT of space. In places where there are people who can't use stairs, there are usually plans in place for who is designated to (one way or another) help evacuate those who can't evacuate themselves.

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He's on point for this.

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12 hours ago, magnemoe said:

For the nursery homes they tend to use the fire exits doors for meetings. However why are it stairs for the fire exit then most patients can not walk stairs? An ramp in an two floor building would make more sense.

Ramps are incredibly space-consuming. Since they are usually duplicated by stairs, the whole shebang ends up occupying three times as much space.

And nobody wants to make that much of an effort for a fire exit.

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Spoiler

It's a fire exit, the fire doesn't have problems with stairs.

 

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Posted (edited)

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

This is pretty cool from the University of Washington (their hospital was the first major center in the US with loads of cases until NY got slammed). Starts with US but the top pulls down for each State (and DC).

Note that when you switch States it takes a bit for the data to repopulate.

For the US they list a death toll of 38k to 162k as the range, expected value ~81k.

So low flu year to 3X bad flu year as upper bound, with the expected value a bad to 2X normal flu year. Model only assumes existing State rules in place (has the shutdowns for my State, for example).

(now it's really slow, might have gotten slammed by page views)

 

Edited by tater

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1 hour ago, tater said:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

This is pretty cool from the University of Washington (their hospital was the first major center in the US with loads of cases until NY got slammed). Starts with US but the top pulls down for each State (and DC).

Note that when you switch States it takes a bit for the data to repopulate.

For the US they list a death toll of 38k to 162k as the range, expected value ~81k.

So low flu year to 3X bad flu year as upper bound, with the expected value a bad to 2X normal flu year. Model only assumes existing State rules in place (has the shutdowns for my State, for example).

(now it's really slow, might have gotten slammed by page views)

A friend of mine just posted the same page on an email thread we converse on, but with the exact opposite reaction. "OMG! This is insane! I can't believe how bad this is getting!" And I pointed out the comparison to flu deaths as well. This is not The Apocalypse.

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23 minutes ago, TheSaint said:

A friend of mine just posted the same page on an email thread we converse on, but with the exact opposite reaction. "OMG! This is insane! I can't believe how bad this is getting!" And I pointed out the comparison to flu deaths as well. This is not The Apocalypse.

Wow, this analysis calmed me a great deal. Data is always good. Seasonality might help as well, though I don't know if it's in the simulation.

As for total impact? It really depends on the "excess" nature of any deaths. If the medically fragile elderly people who are the primary victims had their number up this year anyway, then the impact might not be that great from a medical perspective. The economic damage? Harder to figure out, though I assume that economic hardship has some mortality rate associated with it >0. On the plus side, it's a good dress rehearsal for a truly civilization-altering pandemic. The verdict so far is that we need to do far, far better next time.

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The older I get, the less sanguine I am about people saying, "Oh well, old folks die all the time anyway."

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2 minutes ago, mikegarrison said:

The older I get, the less sanguine I am about people saying, "Oh well, old folks die all the time anyway."

Well, I'm with you there.

I do look around and check to see where I am in a group of 1000 people my age health wise, at least (the "I don't have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun at least one other person the bear is chasing" model).

But from a "big picture" standpoint, it matters. Nearly 100% of 100-something year olds WILL die this year, of something. It might literally be a cold they can't shake leading to pneumonia. It's not that the elderly die all the time so it doesn't matter (that will be ME, soon enough), it's that the most fragile are the ones most likely to die.

Some number of elderly people would have died this year to some infectious disease other than COVID-19. These are people who there is no saving in 2020, their number is up, something will get them. If that something is replaced with COVID-19, nothing changes for them.

I also worry about people without the means to weather the economic crisis, and what that might do to their lifespans.

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42 minutes ago, TheSaint said:

A friend of mine just posted the same page on an email thread we converse on, but with the exact opposite reaction. "OMG! This is insane! I can't believe how bad this is getting!" And I pointed out the comparison to flu deaths as well. This is not The Apocalypse.

The real problem is then you run out out intensive care beds like Italy did, then the death toll skyrockets. 
That is the reason for the shutdown. 
A friend of mine is running an recruitment agency for nurses in the US, I made an program for her some 10 years ago and she wanted changes to track down deactivated nurses. 
Its not only ventilators its also staffing. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, tater said:

On the plus side, it's a good dress rehearsal for a truly civilization-altering pandemic.

This is already civilization-altering. In fact, a deadlier disease has little chance of becoming a pandemic in first place. The Black Death only got so far because it had ubiquitous insect and animal vectors, and most crucially, it didn't really kill the former. Just look at SARS, which, despite being another, similar coronavirus with a significantly higher mortality rate, did not manage to make much of a long term splash. The disease it caused was too severe to cause a spread that we are seeing now.

In fact, some scientists were warning about respiratory RNA viruses for years, because this class of viruses has traits close to those needed to turn an epidemic into a global crisis. It was just a matter of time before one evolved the exact ones needed.. COVID-19 spreads extremely fast if unchecked, and is just lethal enough to be dangerous to a significant group of people, yet not enough to immediately disable an average member of the public. As an added bonus, some cases are asymptomatic, and it has an incubation period. These traits enable extremely wide, rapid spread of the disease. SARS-CoV2 is all about quantity, not quality, so to speak.

This is what a particularly virulent flu strain could have become, if we didn't have a vaccine before we had mass international travel and a world population that we have now.

Edited by Dragon01

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1 hour ago, mikegarrison said:

The older I get, the less sanguine I am about people saying, "Oh well, old folks die all the time anyway."

No one here gets out alive. (Hat tip to Jim Morrison.) We are, as a society, very uncomfortable with the fact that we're all going to die. I think this whole pandemic thing is bringing that to the forefront.

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Posted (edited)

So the Neil Ferguson (UK epidemiologist) estimation that drove a news cycle or 10, etc... he revised his take (news reported worst commonly).

From 500,000 dead in the UK to 20,000 (that number was worst case, no intervention, BTW). It also says that half the dead would have died anyway (they're really sick already).

Oops?

His model had 2.2 million deaths in the US... which should also be down by maybe 25X to 88,000.

Interestingly this is very close to the expected case from UW for the US (which includes all current closure/distancing interventions).

 

40 minutes ago, TheSaint said:

No one here gets out alive. (Hat tip to Jim Morrison.) We are, as a society, very uncomfortable with the fact that we're all going to die. I think this whole pandemic thing is bringing that to the forefront.

Obviously we talk about this a lot at home all the time right now, and my wife says that people don't really grasp that people die constantly unless they see it every day like she does.

Edited by tater

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5 minutes ago, tater said:

Obviously we talk about this a lot at home all the time right now, and my wife says that people don't really grasp that people die constantly unless they see it every day like she does.

Exactly. My wife is a PT, so she doesn't see the dead ones. (Although she did have one little old lady drop dead five minutes after she treated her. That shook her a bit.) But if she had a dime for every thirtysomething idiopathic stroke patient she's treated. People just aren't aware of how much they take for granted. Not every problem is solvable. 

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8 minutes ago, TheSaint said:

Exactly. My wife is a PT, so she doesn't see the dead ones. (Although she did have one little old lady drop dead five minutes after she treated her. That shook her a bit.) But if she had a dime for every thirtysomething idiopathic stroke patient she's treated. People just aren't aware of how much they take for granted. Not every problem is solvable. 

A friend of mine had a minor stroke while working out at the gym. Very fit guy, his wife's a serious cyclist that drags him along. He was fine until he wasn't.

 

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Me after the end of the second week of self-isolation:

Meanwhile elsewhere:

Spoiler

 

*sad retailer noises*

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What's wrong with those Penne Lisce stuff? I can only assume it's the shape that's objectionable to people, since other stuff from that brand is gone and I doubt the actual recipe is different.

That shape is better than most to capture and trap whatever sauce you put on the pasta, and once you start chewing, every pasta is the same. Weird.

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1 minute ago, Shpaget said:

What's wrong with those Penne Lisce stuff? I can only assume it's the shape that's objectionable to people, since other stuff from that brand is gone and I doubt the actual recipe is different.

That shape is better than most to capture and trap whatever sauce you put on the pasta, and once you start chewing, every pasta is the same. Weird.

it's the excrementstiest pasta you can buy, it doesn't hold any sauce and it is the kind of pasta you give to 3-5 years old babies

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You're Italian, right?

So, as a pro, which shape do you consider the best for sauce holding?

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5 minutes ago, Flavio hc16 said:

it's the excrementstiest pasta you can buy, it doesn't hold any sauce and it is the kind of pasta you give to 3-5 years old babies

Life Rule # 273: Do not start an argument with an Italian over pasta. :D

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Posted (edited)

 

9 hours ago, Shpaget said:

You're Italian, right?

So, as a pro, which shape do you consider the best for sauce holding?

yeap, from Rome.

I would say bucatini ( similar to spaghetti but they are like micro tubes), or fettuccine ( again, like spaghetti but flat and wide)

9 hours ago, TheSaint said:

Life Rule # 273: Do not start an argument with an Italian over pasta. :D

conpletely right

Edited by Flavio hc16
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