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So I heard from an old friend yesterday, whom I hadn’t heard from this year. He works as kitchen staff at a hotel in Vancouver that hosts a lot of conventions. Needless to say he hasn’t worked since sports shut down. He’s pretty sure this bug went through his workplace back in January. He was feeling it for 3-4 weeks: cough, difficulty/painful breathing (especially lying down), constant fatigue, etc. He’s a 50yo smoker so that didn’t help.  So I think it’s been over here for awhile. I’m sure widespread serological testing would be.... fascinating 

 

yes I said that with a cocked eyebrow
 

 

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6 minutes ago, StrandedonEarth said:

So I heard from an old friend yesterday, whom I hadn’t heard from this year. He works as kitchen staff at a hotel in Vancouver that hosts a lot of conventions. Needless to say he hasn’t worked since sports shut down. He’s pretty sure this bug went through his workplace back in January. He was feeling it for 3-4 weeks: cough, difficulty/painful breathing (especially lying down), constant fatigue, etc. He’s a 50yo smoker so that didn’t help.  So I think it’s been over here for awhile. I’m sure widespread serological testing would be.... fascinating 

 

yes I said that with a cocked eyebrow
 

 

Um, don't 50-yr-old smokers often experience "cough, difficulty/painful breathing (especially lying down), constant fatigue, etc."?

I was quite sick in the last week of Feb. Fever of 102.5 (F, obviously) that dropped to 101 over the next two days. Coughing. All the general aches and stiffness from a high fever. No nausea at all, and I had a flu shot this year, so it probably wasn't the flu.

Also, I should add that I eat lunch many days just down the hill (1/2 mile, maybe) from the hospital where the first cases were treated in the US.

Did I have COVID-19? Hell if I know. I spent a full week home by myself. Then I went back to work and within days we were all sent home to "social distance" ourselves.

Anyway, I'm not assuming I had the disease or that I have any immunity. If tests were available, I would be interested to get tested though.

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7 hours ago, tater said:

So low flu year to 3X bad flu year as upper bound, with the expected value a bad to 2X normal flu year. Model only assumes existing State rules in place (has the shutdowns for my State, for example).

Do they have a model of if we had treated it like we normally do the flu? Because this sounds to me like the precautions taken were akin to dodging a bullet.

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Posted (edited)

One of my friends just left the hospital after being nearly dead for two weeks, and my brother in law was not regarded sick enough to occupy a hospital bed and has been quarantining himself in his own house. Based on what his wife is telling us, it's a very rough ride. A coworker of my sister had it, and he was scared as hell; as a single person and at home, he was at one point literally not able to get out of bed to get something to drink, and really thought he was going to die at that point (as he wasn't able to get up and feed himself and there was no one around to help him). None of these were smokers or 60+

In most cases it might feel like nothing more than a mild flu. But in those cases where it doesn't it can really wreck you, and apparently the damage it can do to your lungs can be lasting.

Edited by Kerbart

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1 hour ago, 5thHorseman said:

Do they have a model of if we had treated it like we normally do the flu? Because this sounds to me like the precautions taken were akin to dodging a bullet.

Yeah, 2-3 million dead in the U.S. alone. 7 billion infections worldwide.

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You know, that toilet paper crisis is actually helping the worst people.

91169674_1356510464536265_53311555752312

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The president of Slovakia is better-prepared for the apocalypse than you.

881ad5e79ba565d976-89332463.jpg

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15 hours ago, tater said:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

This is pretty cool from the University of Washington (their hospital was the first major center in the US with loads of cases until NY got slammed). Starts with US but the top pulls down for each State (and DC).

So, I took that chart and started to track actual numbers, just to see how accurate their model is (deaths only). I'm mostly interested in the accuracy of the model, since it seems to me that it's much too early to make a robust one. I suspect that they are underestimating the number of deaths, since once the number of ill people overwhelm the medical resources, we can expect higher mortality.

I'm taking daily death numbers from:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Their source of data for actual deaths seems to end at 2020-03-24, so I'm filling in what comes after, but I've noticed that even the data before has some differences. I don't think I'll bother changing that, since not only the difference is small, but actual numbers are small as well, so it won't have much effect on the total.

If anyone wants to follow along, the spreadsheet is here.

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5 hours ago, XB-70A said:

You know, that toilet paper crisis is actually helping the worst people.

91169674_1356510464536265_53311555752312

LOL. was out shopping two days ago as I had to get to office and get some stuff anyway. Needed toilet paper as my last roll was almost out and forgot buying last time I was shopping. 
The expensive grocery store was almost out of toilet paper long after that crazy trend started. 
Weird me out

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Slogan of the moment:
"NOLI ME TANGERE, CIVIS ROMANVS SVM."

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The prime minister of the United Kingdom now has it.

 

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18 minutes ago, RCgothic said:

The prime minister of the United Kingdom now has it.

 

Welcome to the fold, Boris!

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Posted (edited)

And Till Lindemann, too.

Spoiler

I was sure the virus couldn't survive in concentrated sanitizer

 

Edited by kerbiloid

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14 hours ago, 5thHorseman said:

Do they have a model of if we had treated it like we normally do the flu? Because this sounds to me like the precautions taken were akin to dodging a bullet.

That one doesn't, no.

It will be interesting to see serological test data once that's a thing.

 

There's a story circulating that China closed all theaters today after having opened them.

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9 hours ago, kerbiloid said:

Couldn't they find a pink mask, too?

Being President does have some perks. The lady in pink is not the President.

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17 minutes ago, mikegarrison said:

Being President does have some perks. The lady in pink is not the President.

But anyway everybody can see who is in th royal purple here.

So, they could allow on an exceptional basis.

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If those are the senior governmental officials in Slovakia ... well, they all seem to be younger and hotter than those in many other countries.

 

Cabinet_800x452.jpg

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The Health Secretary and Chief Medical Officer of the UK have also now tested positive.

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32 minutes ago, RCgothic said:

The Health Secretary and Chief Medical Officer of the UK have also now tested positive.

Amazing so many in gov have it with... (gets calculator) 0.0175% of the population infected.

The actual number of people who have, or already had this are a few orders of magnitude higher than the confirmed numbers of cases.

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Till Lindeman's (the frontman of Rammstein) 's diagnosis has not been confirmed.

Spoiler

Unlike my beliefs that the virus just couldn't survive in the blood of a rock musician. It's just chemically impossible.

 

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7 hours ago, kerbiloid said:

And Till Lindemann, too.

  Hide contents

I was sure the virus couldn't survive in concentrated sanitizer

 

Not just the sanitizer.

337260.jpg

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, mikegarrison said:

If those are the senior governmental officials in Slovakia ... well, they all seem to be younger and hotter than those in many other countries.

Cabinet_800x452.jpg

Can't be her in this shot. She was only elected this year.

Spoiler

f-caputova-a-20190617.jpg

And I'll admit I didn't immediately tell her apart from the President of Croatia.

Spoiler

a17e2e33ba20cd86c8e8.jpeg

 

Edited by DDE
Shpaget got badly triggered

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10 minutes ago, DDE said:

Can't be her in this shot. She was only elected this year.

I think you misunderstood. I was showing the Obama Cabinet as a counter-example.

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