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Kerbal Space Program 2 to be released in 2022 [Discussion Thread]


Arco123
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Throwing my release date speculation in here for the record...

  1. I believe we will get one more feature video or big release trailer in September or October, since feature videos tend to be spaced 5-6 months apart.
  2. I believe the actual release will be between Thanksgiving and Christmas based on the earnings call, lack of a 2023 announcement, estimated timing of the next feature video, and apparently this is a profitable time to release games.
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2 hours ago, poopslayer78 said:

we will get one more feature video or big release trailer in September or October

There has to be a serious marketing campaign at least a few months before launch.

I hope the team will someday explain what was the reason for all the delays. "We're launching in 2020, no 2021, no actually 2022." But where's the marketing campaign? Dunno.. it's classified.

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7 minutes ago, Vl3d said:

I hope the team will someday explain what was the reason for all the delays. "We're launching in 2020, no 2021, no actually 2022." But where's the marketing campaign? Dunno.. it's classified.

My guess is that ownership changes, new dev environment (socially and technically), covid dissarray, and normal dev delays add up to about 2 years or so.  I've held to the 2.1 rule and it has worked.  Take the time you honestly think it will take to dev something.  Multiply by 2.1 to account for not being able to see the future, product vision changes, changes in dev env (Unity etc), and there ya go; a decent estimate.  Seems to be accurate within 10% or so most of the time.  At least as accurate as a magic 8 ball

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I hope for a 2022 release, but not counting on it. I need this game done right, not just right now. This is the game I have been waiting for, and a buggy and incomplete release would be a whole lot worse than waiting longer would be. 

 

The only mistake the developers have made was speculating themselves on release timing, gamers are generally not mature enough to handle a projected date, they always take that as some kind of solemn promise.

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4 hours ago, darthgently said:

My guess is that ownership changes, new dev environment (socially and technically), covid dissarray, and normal dev delays add up to about 2 years or so.  I've held to the 2.1 rule and it has worked.  Take the time you honestly think it will take to dev something.  Multiply by 2.1 to account for not being able to see the future, product vision changes, changes in dev env (Unity etc), and there ya go; a decent estimate.  Seems to be accurate within 10% or so most of the time.  At least as accurate as a magic 8 ball

Yep, I think we already know why they delays happened.

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2 minutes ago, DwightLee said:

Yep, I think we already know why they delays happened.

I should have made that a general comment and not a reply to you, oops.  It was directed to those who seem so very confused that they couldn't buy KSP 2 a year or two ago

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3 minutes ago, darthgently said:

I should have made that a general comment and not a reply to you, oops.  It was directed to those who seem so very confused that they couldn't buy KSP 2 a year or two ago

No biggie... ( it was not really directed at me ) 

But yeah... we know why many delays happened. It has been quite a ride for that team. But I will say I was quite pleased when KSP shut down and the team was shifted over to the new project... that bodes well ( at least to me )

Edited by DwightLee
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3 hours ago, Dogywall said:

When would you guys guess the relese date would be. I literally can't wait and I need an awnser.

 

3 hours ago, Linky said:

My guess is between Q4 - 2022 and Q1 - 2023. We have had no indication of it coming sooner then that.

DogyWall: To save you time searching the pages of this thread - Linky's answer includes a lot of derivative speculation based upon what others have scrounged up previously.  Most notably an earnings report prediction that KSP2 would ship during the company's FY 23, which extends from now through Q1 of Calendar Year 2023.  Other than that, we're literally left with 'dowsing' predictions, like my "National Churro Day" release.

The Q4 timeframe speculation has a lot of weight behind it because it's also the most profitable / highest sales timeframe:

16211.jpeg

 

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On 4/10/2022 at 7:06 PM, Vl3d said:

I hope the team will someday explain what was the reason for all the delays. "We're launching in 2020, no 2021, no actually 2022."

They already did this though?

 

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4 hours ago, Dogywall said:

When would you guys guess the relese date would be. I literally can't wait and I need an awnser.

3 hours ago, Linky said:

 

3 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

 

We may not need to wait too long for more news on a release date even if Intercept won't be at PAX East. T2's next earnings call is in May, and I hope their earnings report will have a narrower release window for KSP2 included.

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On 4/10/2022 at 2:06 PM, Vl3d said:

I hope the team will someday explain what was the reason for all the delays. "We're launching in 2020, no 2021, no actually 2022." But where's the marketing campaign? Dunno.. it's classified.

 

7 minutes ago, Bej Kerman said:

They already did this though?

Yeah - they've been pretty open.  The (probably) worst thing they could have done since the Covid announcement would have been to try to give a firm, if speculative, anticipated date of release.   While frustrating to have to keep waiting and wanting; the release of information about their development efforts and the content we can anticipate is quality stuff.

I wouldn't expect them to apologize / explain any more than they already have.

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On 4/10/2022 at 11:06 AM, Vl3d said:

There has to be a serious marketing campaign at least a few months before launch.

I hope the team will someday explain what was the reason for all the delays. "We're launching in 2020, no 2021, no actually 2022." But where's the marketing campaign? Dunno.. it's classified.

For most games that is true Kebal is a bit different, it has a massive following already, initial success it almost guaranteed, but on the flip side... I do agree with you, and to be brutally honest... I am not really expecting it to release in 2022 ( I just don't want to say that too loud for fear of being mugged )

1 hour ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

 

Yeah - they've been pretty open.  The (probably) worst thing they could have done since the Covid announcement would have been to try to give a firm, if speculative, anticipated date of release.   While frustrating to have to keep waiting and wanting; the release of information about their development efforts and the content we can anticipate is quality stuff.

I wouldn't expect them to apologize / explain any more than they already have.

Oh yeah, we already know about the delays and why. I still think their biggest mistake was projecting any release date, people take a projected date as if it was some kind of promise.

Edited by DwightLee
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2 hours ago, DwightLee said:

I am not really expecting it to release in 2022 ( I just don't want to say that too loud for fear of being mugged )

After the recent video talking about neat things they're planning on adding and hoping to kill the kracken... feels like if it was about to be released it wouldn't be a plan and they'd have already done all the key stuff (And have stable physics at the very least).

Couple that with the fact that T2 hasn't narrowed the release window beyond a one year period like they have with literally EVERY OTHER game they plan on releasing this year...

Not looking or feeling good for 2022.

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14 hours ago, TLTay said:

Couple that with the fact that T2 hasn't narrowed the release window beyond a one year period like they have with literally EVERY OTHER game they plan on releasing this year...

Not looking or feeling good for 2022.

As I said further up the thread, I'm really interested to see if next month's earnings report shows a narrower window.

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So I'm looking at the great timeline created by our good colleague @DrCHIVES and I wonder what the initial release schedule for the Feature Videos was. Consider they were spaced apart by 5-6 months from the beginning AND that the team knew starting with video 2 how many features there would be based on the number of sequences it takes to get to the Mun landing.

https://time.graphics/line/642556

And also in 2021 there were regular Show & Tells and Developer Insights spaced 2 weeks apart, but starting with the 2022 delay info is very sparse.. 1 month apart maybe more.

Edited by Vl3d
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8 minutes ago, Vl3d said:

And also in 2021 there were regular Show & Tells and Developer Insights spaced 2 weeks apart, but starting with the 2022 delay info is very sparse.. 1 month apart maybe more.

1 month isn't sparse.

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Ok guys, I figured it out. The game is going to be released on 20 July, the date of the Moon Landing. It all just clicked together.

 

Edited by Vl3d
Fixed the date
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1 minute ago, Vl3d said:

Ok guys, I figured it out. The game is going to be released on 24 July, the date of the Moon Landing. It all just clicked together.

That was the date they returned to Earth. The actual Moon landing happened on the 20th. Seems a bit close for release considering we're in April already, although I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

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7 minutes ago, Vl3d said:

Ok guys, I figured it out. The game is going to be released on 20 July, the date of the Moon Landing. It all just clicked together.

 

Edited by Vl3d
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Or at the very least they'll announce the release date on the 20th of July.

But the pitch drop should also statistically be in July. There's the Mun landing at the end, the talks about Neil Armstrong, the newspaper..

There's also the size of the Karecibo message.. 7 * 7 * 23. Could also be referring to ~23 July.

Any other hints for a July date?

Edited by Vl3d
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