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Observations and visualization of Feature Videos release dates


Thundy
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I'll repeat myself in saying that there's no way the release is this close again and they're still showing in-editor asset mockups and only one or two in game shots. They should be at late testing, yet their media reflects late in-development. Of course they could be just releasing old stuff but that's not what was happening this year when the original release was closing in and we were still seeing untextured renders.

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1 hour ago, PDCWolf said:

yet their media reflects late in-development. Of course they could be just releasing old stuff

of course they are releasing old stuff. there is a lot of editing to be made before something can be released. and the thing is in early developement most things added will be to help late developement and mostly non visual things, probably making different parts interact with eachother. later it goes really quick with modeling and texturing and just adding content

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1 hour ago, PDCWolf said:

I'll repeat myself in saying that there's no way the release is this close again and they're still showing in-editor asset mockups and only one or two in game shots. They should be at late testing, yet their media reflects late in-development. Of course they could be just releasing old stuff but that's not what was happening this year when the original release was closing in and we were still seeing untextured renders.

We've seen small clips of the physics and orbits working, so that's really all I need to see on that matter. It's physics, so i'm sure they've got it figured out. Besides planets, the only other things interesting to show would be parts or gameplay mechanics, but they are probably saving the really "wow" stuff for closer to release to drum up sales. 

Also, I think the build of this game lends itself to a test-as-you-go kind of system, because if they have the basic physics engine etc down first, they can do assets and planets etc and insert and test them as they finish them. The whole thing doesn't need to be done to test it.

Edited by TLTay
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14 minutes ago, TLTay said:

We've seen small clips of the physics and orbits working, so that's really all I need to see on that matter. It's physics, so i'm sure they've got it figured out. Besides planets, the only other things interesting to show would be parts or gameplay mechanics, but they are probably saving the really "wow" stuff for closer to release to drum up sales. 

Also, I think the build of this game lends itself to a test-as-you-go kind of system, because if they have the basic physics engine etc down first, they can do assets and planets etc and insert and test them as they finish them. The whole thing doesn't need to be done to test it.

Those clips of "orbits and physics" are what led to the huge debate (mostly on reddit) that ended up with them having to include a big "THIS IS NOT GAMEPLAY" disclaimer. 

 

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1 hour ago, PDCWolf said:

I'll repeat myself in saying that there's no way the release is this close again and they're still showing in-editor asset mockups and only one or two in game shots. They should be at late testing, yet their media reflects late in-development. Of course they could be just releasing old stuff but that's not what was happening this year when the original release was closing in and we were still seeing untextured renders.

KSP2 has been in development since late 2017-2018. They did lose time with the whole studio shuffle/debacle and the worldwide disease. When the teaser trailer was released, they had a working alpha using KSP1 assets. Now they are at the point where all the art needs to be done and working on optimizations.

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8 hours ago, PDCWolf said:

Those clips of "orbits and physics" are what led to the huge debate (mostly on reddit) that ended up with them having to include a big "THIS IS NOT GAMEPLAY" disclaimer. 

 

Physics is done. That could have been done 100% if the game was in wireframe. Planets are plug and play, as are parts. No indications of another delay so far. 

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I can imagine a lot of time may have been dedicated to creating the assets in the new engine, to match the visuals rendered in the video teaser back in 2017.    Those renders were created before the assets they represented existed, and they were built using the original KSP 1 engine, but the entire game, built as it may or may not have been, had to be abandoned, a new architecture had to be created from scratch.  

Honestly, I know several mods for games, indy games and even films that are over 20+ years in development.   Who knows when they will ever be released?   If they can show you a screenshot of any asset, at this stage, only 4 years in to development, I would say that is massive progress for the timeline of most modern developers, which take anywhere from 10-12 years on average, to flesh out a fully functional game from genesis to launch.  

They're way ahead of schedule.   If the game gets released by 2025, they'll be within nominal margin of error on their original launch date of 2020.   

Game development is like shipyard.   Whatever launch date the yard gives you, you ignore it, and add 2-3 weeks.  That's just standard op.  Game dev goes in years nowadays, so I would say a 2025 launch date is closer to what we'll actually see.  

Edited by Bosun
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So, I see a few problems with this stance. Sure, you won’t feel too bad if the game is delayed again with this perspective but that is not the point here. My view of this discussion is that it is about specific details to get an estimate of a release date, not a « hope for the best, mentally steel yourself for the worst » situation. 
 

for the engine rewrite, that does take some time but if that were the main limiting factor, take two would simply pump more artists into the project because it is cheaper that way. Same goes for the engine, with the exception of multiplayer most problems can be solved by adding more people. My hypothesis is that development time is being used on tweaking the various systems of the game and finishing up procedural generation in the meantime. 
 

For the timeframe question, to be honest, a twenty-year development cycle in a creative project will always result in a failed project, unless the parameters are well defined at the start. Nominal margin of error (which is a bit of a confusing term, what is nominal about it?) on a twenty year project should be no more than 20% of the planned time, which puts 2025 as a really very late project. But KSP 2 is not a 20 year project, it is a two-year project that has become a 4-year project. In your shipyard analogy, we should tack on a few months to the release date, not a few years. 
 

lastly, I understand accepting a 2025 release date, but please don’t predict one. You can have your stance but when it comes to predicting when the game will release, it would be better to not ignore the data pointing to a mid-2022 release date. At least provide some objective and pertinent explanations that do not rely on outliers in the development space and trends from other industries. 
 

sorry if this came across as harsh or rude, I am not taking the time to make sure I have careful wording because I am tired. 

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On 11/5/2021 at 4:18 AM, Thundy said:

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It seems like the average wait time for each Feature video is 5.5 months. I hope they become more frequent, as their frequency indicates how far away we are from the release of the game.

This is fantastic @Thundy. Just a couple observations I'd add are:

  • The Episode 1.5 - Work From Home update fits really nicely into the gap between Episodes 1 & 2, although I'm guessing you're aware of that.
  • I'd suggest that the Official Release Period is actually from April 1 to December 31 since they still say the game will be released in 2022.

Also, I'm curious if there will be an Episode 6. The Feature Videos Teaser suggests we only have one more and it's about Colonies, but if you look at Episode 4's page on reddit, a KSP team member mentions future "videos". Plural. That's the closest I've seen to real proof that there could be more than one still coming. 

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4 hours ago, Ahres said:

but if you look at Episode 4's page on reddit, a KSP team member mentions future "videos". Plural. That's the closest I've seen to real proof that there could be more than one still coming. 

I would assume that they are referring to videos that are not feature videos but contain more content than the show and tells. As we near release, we will probably see a lot of content coming out for hype that will not be branded as a feature video. 

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4 hours ago, Ahres said:

The Episode 1.5 - Work From Home update fits really nicely into the gap between Episodes 1 & 2, although I'm guessing you're aware of that.

You are right. I didn't put it in a chart because to me it seemed like an update to their structure and the game development process more than the game itself.

4 hours ago, Ahres said:

The Feature Videos Teaser suggests we only have one more and it's about Colonies

While Multiplayer was never mentioned in that video, I believe we'll get some video that's shows it off somehow weather it's a Feature Video,  or a gameplay trailer that shows off multiplayer, and maybe the release date at the end.

4 hours ago, Ahres said:

I'd suggest that the Official Release Period is actually from April 1 to December 31 since they still say the game will be released in 2022.

Considering the possibility that Episode 6 may never exist, that's going to be an awful lot of time before it's going to be released, I don't expect silence after Episode 5 until the release date (In this case we'll assume the worst case, December 31st 2022)

We will definitely start getting something in that time (e.g. Gameplay trailers, demos to Journalists & Youtubers, etc), but honestly, I don't expect it to be late 2022, because of recent info that surfaced during my investigation. I'm trying to piece it together and see if it actually contributes to the conversation or not. I will tell you that it's already outdated information and are completely useless, but we may be able to draw some conclusions with it.

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On 11/15/2021 at 10:48 PM, Thundy said:

We will definitely start getting something in that time (e.g. Gameplay trailers, demos to Journalists & Youtubers, etc)

That is a big assumption that even huge budget projects like AoE4 have severly messed up in the last couple of years. Of course like you I **hope** it will be the case, but we should not get too many expections up. 

Honestly I really hope they just do early access. It would feel so... "Kerbal" and befitting to this community, and would show the game has not moved too far from its roots

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