Tonga eruption effect on climate for the coming few years.

[Flying dutchman]

I'm surprised this topic doesn't exist already.

In 1815 a big volcano erupted which caused the year without a summer. How do you think this recent eruption of the Tonga volcano will affect climate?

of course this eruption is a terrible tragedy for the people living near the volcano and their friends and relatives. My heart goes out to them and I wish them the very best.

Edited January 17, 2022 by Flying dutchman

[Elthy]

From what ive heard the Tonga volcano eruption is classified as a VEI 5, Tambroa was 7. Each point on that scale is a tenfold increase, so likely the effect will be hard to measure.

[RCgothic]

What @Elthy said.

 

Personally I'm torn between:

"A big volcanic eruption that cooled the earth would buy us a couple more vital years to get our act together"

and:

"Any source of short-term cooling will be used by climate denialists to prevent us getting our act together."

[Flying dutchman]

Pinatubo was a 6 and that caused 1 degree Celsius of cooling. So perhaps 0.1? 

Athough I wouldn't be surprised if it's not linear but I'll leave that to the people who are good at math, I'm not.

4 minutes ago, RCgothic said:

What @Elthy

"Any source of short-term cooling will be used by climate denialists to prevent us getting our act together."

I'm not one of those luckily

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

1 hour ago, Flying dutchman said:

I'm surprised this topic doesn't exist already.

In 1815 a big volcano erupted which caused the year without a summer. How do you think this recent eruption of the Tonga volcano will affect climate?

of course this eruption is a terrible tragedy for the people living near the volcano and their friends and relatives. My heart goes out to them and I wish them the very best.

I have been watching and waiting - there is not a lot of info yet.  As mentioned, it was kind of a small volcanic explosion. Initial reports said that the ejecta only reached 50,000 feet - likely to be a regional event.  What I haven't seen yet is a track of the southern jet stream or the ash chemistry - both of which could help assess the impact. 

This is a pretty good article - again showing that we are in the early stages of learning about the impact https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60009944

(not a science article, btw) 

This is better:

https://theconversation.com/why-the-volcanic-eruption-in-tonga-was-so-violent-and-what-to-expect-next-175035

 

This is a 2017 article about a previous eruption:

https://eos.org/science-updates/new-volcanic-island-unveils-explosive-past

 

Edited January 17, 2022 by JoeSchmuckatelli

[Scotius]

This is concerning. Even if the eruption will have only regional consequences, I'm worried about people of Tonga. They have nowhere to run on small, mostly flat islands. Air and sea offer no shelter or escape route either. Also, what will happen to their livelihood? We know big Plinian eruptions damage ecosystem around them with ash and harmful chemicals - and ecosystem on tropical islands is already fragile as it lacks "depth" - figuratively speaking. I have bad feeling Tongan agriculture will be badly affected by ashfall and toxic fumes. Even if it won't end in climatic catastrophe, we may still have humanitarian crisis to deal with.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

59 minutes ago, Scotius said:

This is concerning. Even if the eruption will have only regional consequences, I'm worried about people of Tonga. They have nowhere to run on small, mostly flat islands. Air and sea offer no shelter or escape route either. Also, what will happen to their livelihood? We know big Plinian eruptions damage ecosystem around them with ash and harmful chemicals - and ecosystem on tropical islands is already fragile as it lacks "depth" - figuratively speaking. I have bad feeling Tongan agriculture will be badly affected by ashfall and toxic fumes. Even if it won't end in climatic catastrophe, we may still have humanitarian crisis to deal with.

People living in volcanic zones enjoy a mixed blessing.  Certainly there is danger - but quite often the eruptions actually provide highly fertile soils. 

https://www.martumsicily.com/volcanic-soils/

https://www.scienceabc.com/nature/why-is-volcanic-soil-so-fertile.html

So there can be a short period of hardship - but then a multi-decadal improvement 

Edit - this, too. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serengeti_volcanic_grasslands#:~:text=The Serengeti volcanic grasslands are an edaphic plant community that,volcano deepened the ash deposits.

 

It's important to note that volcanoes are literally vital for life on this planet - just as they also pose a risk 

Much of the water and atmosphere we enjoy are the direct result of volcanism, but see also the mass extinction events, such as the Deccan Traps, et.al 

Edited January 17, 2022 by JoeSchmuckatelli