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Ksp 2 dev video countdown.


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Someone probably realized this before me, but I think I know what the ship at the end is for.

It's a countdown, and it's at T-2. 

Every showcase video contains the same ship, going through a mission, every time we see it, the ship is later in its mission, which is a mun trip.

The latest part had it staging away all its boosters on what I have concluded is most likely a munar impact trajectory (due to it looking like one, and crashing being common in ksp). It has no landing fuel tanks that I can see, so it almost certainly won't be decelerating, let alone returning.

It is "falling" towards the mun, or in other words, dropping.

I hearby speculate that when it hits the ground, ksp 2 will drop.

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20 minutes ago, Hyperspace Industries said:

Someone probably realized this before me, but I think I know what the ship at the end is for.

It's a countdown, and it's at T-2. 

Every showcase video contains the same ship, going through a mission, every time we see it, the ship is later in its mission, which is a mun trip.

The latest part had it staging away all its boosters on what I have concluded is most likely a munar impact trajectory (due to it looking like one, and crashing being common in ksp). It has no landing fuel tanks that I can see, so it almost certainly won't be decelerating, let alone returning.

It is "falling" towards the mun, or in other words, dropping.

I hearby speculate that when it hits the ground, ksp 2 will drop.

That would be amazing! A game like KSP 2 could really benefit from a "shadow drop" instead of a traditional markering period.

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33 minutes ago, Hyperspace Industries said:

It has no landing fuel tanks that I can see, so it almost certainly won't be decelerating, let alone returning.

It has landing legs, an engine and a fuel tank - but only enough for a landing.

Next feature video will most probably be the last one - mainly about multiplayer, maybe references to modding or colonies.

So we have to wait for another 6 months for a release date, probably.

Edited by Vl3d
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57 minutes ago, Vl3d said:

It has landing legs, an engine and a fuel tank - but only enough for a landing.

Next feature video will most probably be the last one - mainly about multiplayer, maybe references to modding or colonies.

So we have to wait for another 6 months for a release date, probably.

I just hope the last video comes out a little sooner than that!

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8 minutes ago, stellar and beyond said:
what would be the probability that it is already filmed episode 6 and that it is shown at PAX East ?

They’re not going to pax East, so zero?

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1 hour ago, Hyperspace Industries said:

Someone probably realized this before me, but I think I know what the ship at the end is for.

It's a countdown, and it's at T-2. 

Every showcase video contains the same ship, going through a mission, every time we see it, the ship is later in its mission, which is a mun trip.

The latest part had it staging away all its boosters on what I have concluded is most likely a munar impact trajectory (due to it looking like one, and crashing being common in ksp). It has no landing fuel tanks that I can see, so it almost certainly won't be decelerating, let alone returning.

It is "falling" towards the mun, or in other words, dropping.

I hearby speculate that when it hits the ground, ksp 2 will drop.

An a similar note, funny cloud patterns I saw near a Valve office mean Half Life 3 is confirmed.

1 hour ago, Vl3d said:

Next feature video will most probably be the last one - mainly about multiplayer, maybe references to modding or colonies.

Second to last one. FY2023 doesn't end for nearly a year, and I'm betting the devs are willing to spend as much time "killing the kraken" as possible so we don't release with all the bugs we had to put up with through KSP 1's life.

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31 minutes ago, Bej Kerman said:

An a similar note, funny cloud patterns I saw near a Valve office mean Half Life 3 is confirmed.

Yeah, I probably should have added more indication that this is speculation.

But then, what does that end scene mean? And why does the chapter say "something more?"?

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They might not be going to PAX East, but you know what they've gone to in the past that they might well go to in the future, that's similar but in a different place?

Gamescom.

If they're not at Gamescom, I might start getting a little worried unless the feature videos (and other information from the developers) keep coming at a reasonable (or accelerated) pace, like you'd expect to happen near a game's release date.

As for the little teaser at the end of each feature video, how do you know it's going to be stranded? It looks to have a FL-T400 fuel tank and a Mk1 pod along with the rest of the stuff, with a LV-909 or even a Spark, that's more than enough to land on the Mun and get back to Kerbin so long as you don't do any suborbital hops, especially if you had more fuel (in those tanks that were staged off) to actually get you on a suborbital trajectory relative to the Mun.

In any case, as far as a release date, I think we won't know the release date until there's actually VERY little time until release, like a few weeks at best. Basically, I expect the final feature video to end with "And you can play KSP 2 in 2 weeks, but pre-orders will open up today and if you pre-order you can play a multiplayer public test early next week!" or something like that, since so many games these days seem to do that kind of thing.
IMO that theory has a lot more behind it than any theory based off the pitch drop experiment or any other April fool's day info (which you should not even attempt to glean any useful info from, because, you know, it's April fools day and on that day you'd do well to not believe anything you hear unless you can independently verify it).

Edited by SciMan
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25 minutes ago, SciMan said:

In any case, as far as a release date, I think we won't know the release date until there's actually VERY little time until release, like a few weeks at best.

I just can't imagine anyone at a AAA publisher like Private Division going for something like that. The hype you get to build and take advantage of after announcing a release date is too big of an asset to squander by limiting it to a few weeks. I'd guess they'd want at least 3 or 4 months between announce and launch, especially given how much hype had died down due to the delays and whatnot.

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2 hours ago, whatsEJstandfor said:

The hype you get to build and take advantage of after announcing a release date is too big of an asset to squander by limiting it to a few weeks. I'd guess they'd want at least 3 or 4 months between announce and launch, especially given how much hype had died down due to the delays and whatnot.

This is exactly why I think they’d actually have a much smaller window between announcement and release the delays have already killed a lot of hype for a lot of people it seems. They probably wouldn’t announce a date to release until the game is ready to go and a delay is out of the question.

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I don’t think the game will release when the ship lands, but I definitely think it’s gonna be the last video along with a release date. I hope the feature vid will be about multiplayer but we will just have to wait and see, I speculate 3 months at latest before we get the next video.

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Some more Friday videos..

Announcement of release date and feature video about multiplayer / modding / colonies: 20 July (SLS / moon landing anniversary)

Marketing campaign + Gamescom + Pax West + Eurogamer

Game release: late September / early October

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@Vl3d

Despite my personal differences with your "KSP as an MMO" approach to multiplayer over in the KSP 2 Multiplayer Discussion thread (that I don't think I've actually elaborated on over there because it's basically in line with many of the other poster's statements in that thread), we have something we can agree on here regarding when we think the game will release, even if it's not for the same reason.

Aside from specifically March of a given year, the winter holidays seem to be the time when the most games get released, because you can guarantee that if the game is good, it will be selling well at that specific time of year due to so many people choosing to either buy it as a present to themselves, or to others, for the holidays.

I'm well aware that this is just more speculation, held together with evidence that might as well resemble "chewing gum, rubber bands, bailing wire, packing tape, and determination" for just how much that evidence is NOT concrete or indisputable, but you gotta admit that at least the logic behind my guess is sound, right?

After all:
If it's gonna release in FY2023, but also 2022 (my personal belief based on what the still-not-updated-in-far-too-long release date on Steam combined with the date from the investor reports means),
And they want to take advantage of the "holiday rush",
And we don't expect another feature video for a few months (that is a pretty solid assumption, judging by past trends, but if the next one IS sooner, I personally would expect TWO more feature videos until release instead of just the one),
And like I said earlier, my guess is that the feature video that DOES include a release date (which doesn't have to be the next feature video) will have it be "within a few weeks to maybe a month after the date of posting that video at most",
Then all of those theories when put together seem to point to a release sometime in October or November, which centers right on Halloween.

However, because of the effect of "stacking tolerances" with so much vague data, the REAL guess I have for when the game might release is "anytime from September 1st to December 25th", but if not December 25th, the next available release date would be January 5th-7th (to give the developers time to recover after the New Year's Eve party, and time to take off for Christmas break).

EDIT:
The quality of the data I'm using (and the sheer volume of speculative theories I'm trying to make agree with each other) means that I simply can't narrow the release date timing down any further than what I've stated.
I already believe that if your prediction for something REALLY BIG like fusion power spits out a date that is 5 or more years in the future, then you still know exactly as much as when you started, because humans can't predict anything 5 years in the future, let alone further than that. Such is the nature of disruptive events with respect to the direction future events will take.
Even then, "One disruptive event every 5 years" is looking to be an overly optimistic prediction itself ever since the end of 2019 (I want off this wild ride we've been on the past 3 years! :confused:).
END EDIT

And let's be honest, "very early in January" of 2023 is so close to releasing in 2022 that it probably means they were fully committed to releasing in December of 2022, but something happened to delay it. Who knows, maybe they had a critical server go down or get hacked or something, not that I'm wishing for that to happen, I'm just admitting that "If it's happened to Sony it can happen to literally anyone". I do hope they take their IT security and server backup & maintenance quite seriously specifically to prevent just that from happening.

Edited by SciMan
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I am optimistic that the marketing campaign will begin around the time of the SLS launch, maybe not on the day exactly but around that time, as it is going to drive a lot of interest in anything space-related. 

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1 hour ago, SciMan said:

but if not December 25th, the next available release date would be January 5th-7th (to give the developers time to recover after the New Year's Eve party, and time to take off for Christmas break).

I'm not sure if the mentality I have is old-fashioned and if digital downloads these days are different, but Back in My Day, there would be a delta of at least a couple weeks between a game going gold and it hitting the shelves (because the discs had to be manufactured in enough quantities to cover first-run sales). If that kind of publishing model is still true, I don't think it'd matter that the devs would need a Christmas/NY break; in either case, if the game is being released at the end of December or beginning of January, development would have finished in early December at the latest, I think.

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KSP was never released on physical media. I doubt KSP 2 will be either.

EDIT: Pretty much, the days of physical releases of games are either going-going, or already gone, depending on which system you are thinking of.
The Xbox no longer has an optical drive, and there's a version of the PS5 that doesn't have one as well.
Only the Nintendo Switch still has every console able to accept some form of physical media, and even then the game won't have the latest patches on it.

Edited by SciMan
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