KSP 2 - Budget Estimate

[Vl3d]

Internet says Intercept Games is at 40 employees + consultants. Using an average of 5000$ per month per employee for a 4 years development period:

40 * 5000 * 12 * 4 = 9.6 mil. $ for salaries

Marketing budget should be about twice that, let's say 20 mil. $.

I would round it up at ~40 mil. $

Let's account for the fact that KSP2 will probably cost 60$ at launch. Lower sale estimates would be 1 mil. copies.

So there's some budget headroom up to 50 mil. $

What do you think?

Other games with ~50 mil. $ budgets: Half-Life 2, The Division

[intelliCom]

What was the budget for the original KSP?

[Jcklemme]

16 minutes ago, intelliCom said:

What was the budget for the original KSP?

That might be an extremely difficult and ultimately irrelevant question to answer based upon how the original KSP was developed.   A quick Google search and looking on Wikipedia didn't give me any answers.

[Vl3d]

2 hours ago, intelliCom said:

What was the budget for the original KSP?

Budget was incremental over the years.

But consider that Kerbal Space Program has now sold more than 5 million copies. With price between 10$ and 40$, not counting DLC, that's in the ball park of 50 - 200 mil. $ total sales (if also counting DLC let's say).

I would go with an average of ~100 mil. $ in life-time sales. I think it's safe to assume KSP development and marketing costs did not reach that magnitude.

I think KSP was a very profitable game and KSP2 will also be an extremely good investment. Which motivates me to think the total KSP2 budget is at least 50 mil. $, maybe more. It's getting close to AAA territory. Also regarding development time: ~2018 - 2022.

And I'm sure there was reuse of some assets and gameplay solutions from the first game. Which means we have not even seen anything close to the scale of KSP2's improvements and extensions to KSP1. I frankly think that we really have no idea how big KSP2 will actually be. It's going to exceed our wildest expectations.

Edited April 16, 2022 by Vl3d

[fleventeen]

2 minutes ago, Vl3d said:

I frankly think that we really have no idea how big KSP2 will actually be. It's going to exceed our wildest expectations.

I am really trying to temper my expectations. I have been burned too many times, and I care too much about this franchise (its weird to call it that now) to lead myself into a potential serious letdown. In a worst case scenario where KSP 2 flops bigtime, at least we will still have KSP 1 and all of its wonderful mods.

Also, wasn't the KSP 1 team quite small especially at the start?

[Vl3d]

As far as I know KSP1 was basically a 1-2 men show when is started out. You can't get any more indie than that. It's an amazing success story all praise goes to Squad and the whole team of devs and modders. Absolute legends with an incredible vision that grew organically, but which in my opinion has a size and scope that just couldn't be technically achieved by the first single-player only game.

And also praises to Private Division for keeping Nate and the passionate team around him working on the KSP2 project. You really can't ask for more...

...except for better communication and a marketing campaign. We're dying of curiosity over here. Unleash the hype!

10 minutes ago, fleventeen said:

I am really trying to temper my expectations.

Don't. We've been waiting for ~2 years in almost complete radio silence. Until now we've really only seen a better KSP1 + Interstellar mods, but KSP2 is guaranteed to be much more than that.

Edited April 16, 2022 by Vl3d

[fleventeen]

2 minutes ago, Vl3d said:

Don't. We've been waiting for ~2 years in almost complete radio silence.

Yeah the radio silence was concerning, and what they have been showcasing the last few logs is encouraging at least. I appreciate that they pushed the release back. When they first came out and said 2020 I was like... but how???

I should say the Cyberpunk release was also pushed back multiple times, and it still launched in a less than savory state. As long as it does well in terms of sales though, I am sure the money/support will be there to fix whatever issues it has. But as you said, they really need to pick up the marketing aspect. I guess once we start seeing a large amount of content from them, we will know an actual release in imminent.

[Vl3d]

29 minutes ago, fleventeen said:

what they have been showcasing the last few logs is encouraging at least

I would say they are holding back massively. It's like the Three Gorges Dam and we're waiting for the gates to open. Come on, just procedural radiators 6 months before release? And that only because they were showing the part in the Feature Video anyway.

It's the calm before the storm, but the team could work a little more on the "build the community" phase. I mean, April's fools joke with a Dev Q&A and we got a drop of pitch. Auch! They are trying so hard to keep the hype under control, probably fearing the No Man's Sky trap. But for how long? Probably 'till July. Then it's gonna get crazy. But they should already start crystalizing the community base.

KSP1 is already very well known among gamers, the Interstellar Travel video got ~350.0 00 views in one week and that's just organic reach. Can you imagine what a ~20 mil. $ marketing budget means on top of that?

 

Edited April 16, 2022 by Vl3d

[Gargamel]

2 hours ago, Vl3d said:

As far as I know KSP1 was basically a 1-2 men show when is started out.

AFAIK, that's not exactly true.   The idea was originally thought up by the two brothers, but at least one of them worked for SQUAD at the time, and IIRC, they (SQUAD) were a marketing app developer based out of Mexico City, so PC games weren't really in their wheelhouse.  Harvester was able to convince SQUAD to start production of the game, and enough interest in the Alpha led them to continue development.  They've since changed their focus from marketing, as I've been reminded on occasion. 

2 hours ago, Vl3d said:

...except for better communication and a marketing campaign. We're dying of curiosity over here. Unleash the hype!

 

2 hours ago, fleventeen said:

Yeah the radio silence was concerning

This demand for more info baffles me.  I know a lot of fans of the game want more details, but to what end?  It's like seeing a bunch of trailers for a movie, and when you do finally see the movie, you realize they gave away all the cool stuff in the trailers, and a lot of the enjoyment of seeing the actual end product is tarnished.   To me, they've released exactly the right amount of info so far, I'll be enjoying the experience of discovering all the new stuff through gameplay, not through tweets or Youtube videos. 

They seem to be producing a AAA level game, but for a single A level size audience.   This is a very niche game, and the vast majority of the audience will already be aware of it's upcoming release, there's no reason to waste a lot of money on a huge marketing campaign.  The return on investment on such a campaign probably won't lead to enough increased sales to justify it.  

2 hours ago, Vl3d said:

It's the calm before the storm, but the team could work a little more on the "build the community" phase.

Build the community?  *Looks around*  This is a thriving forum ~12 years after it's creation.  The sub reddit is also quite strong.  They have a good twitter following.  I don't visit the data stealing mega corp sites, so I'm not sure how they're doing there, but I would imagine it's equally good.   They've hired on a number of new Community Managers in the very recent past to do just this, "build the community".   There really isn't more they can really be doing here, unless you want them to go the Madden route, with a huge marketing campaign and zero updates to the latest game.  

2 hours ago, Vl3d said:

I mean, April's fools joke with a Dev Q&A and we got a drop of pitch. Auch!

I think you need to look a lot closer.   That wasn't PD at all.   That was a joke I executed on my own to actually poke fun at the devs a bit, with their permission of course.    There was an official joke they released.  I know you're very new to the community here, so you can't be expected to remember all the old ones, but the forums and KSP have a long history of "sensible chuckle" jokes over the years, and to be honest, the list of new ideas is drawing quite thin.   I though PD pulled off a good one this year, actually doing a fairly deep dive into the community lore.   It showed me they are aware of the community, what it does, where it's been, and where it's going. 

I don't work for SQUAD/Intercept/PD etc, I'm just a moderator.  I'm a forum member first, and my job as a moderator is to protect the community we have.   I'll be the first criticize the CM's if they're doing something wrong, and I have in the past (which I won't go into details about, but it's a gripe the community as a whole has had for many years, and I think they got the message).  But honestly, given the nature of what's happened on the corporate end of development, I think they're doing a fine job of teasing just enough info to get us excited.  

[K^2]

On 4/15/2022 at 3:04 AM, Vl3d said:

Using an average of 5000$ per month per employee for a 4 years development period

That's low for Seattle area. The cost of hiring someone also averages about 60% over salary. Something in the ballpark of 120k-150k per year on average is more likely. Though, team composition also changed over time, so taking low figure on this is probably reasonable for estate, giving us something like 20M in costs. There are othet costs too. Rent is going to be a significant one. We are likely talking 30-35M production costs - though, part of it went into Star Theory. Marketing is probably not going to be outrageous, though. So 50-60M total budget seems plausible. That is on the high end for mid size studio, but tiny by AAA standards. And it will make a good profit if it can manage to match 2M sales of KSP. The break-even is in 1.3M-1.5M sales, which seems low risk.

Keep in mind that cost of making games has been climbing. So comparing to HL2 is entirely invalid and even Division is a stretch. This is all very reasonable. And dev progress is about what I expect from this.

[Jcklemme]

4 hours ago, Gargamel said:

  The sub reddit is also quite strong.  They have a good twitter following.  I don't visit the data stealing mega corp sites, so I'm not sure how they're doing there, but I would imagine it's equally good. 

Hate to break it to you but Twitter and Reddit are "data stealing mega Corp sites" too.

[Gargamel]

7 minutes ago, Jcklemme said:

Hate to break it to you but Twitter and Reddit are "data stealing mega Corp sites" too.

Probably, but they don't also make my head explode reading the feed. 

[Vl3d]

3 hours ago, K^2 said:

2M sales of KSP

KSP sold more than 5 mil. units according to T2 info. I was estimating ~100-150 mil. $ life-long total sales for KSP1. To beat that KSP2 should sell 1.6 - 2.5 mil. units at full price or 6.6 - 10 mil. units at 75% discount (for base game, no DLCs). I think they can do that in a couple of years. So I think the niche is going to grow. Good time for science!

4 hours ago, Gargamel said:

This is a thriving forum ~12 years after it's creation.

@GargamelI really appreciate your post. I think for a lot of us, while waiting for official dev posts or media, some words of encouragement from you or the other moderators are a life-line. I really thought the mod-team was a little more in-the-corporate-loop though. I guess it's just a work of passion for a lot of people.. not my place to judge.

4 hours ago, Gargamel said:

I know a lot of fans of the game want more details, but to what end?

For 60$ we should see at least some gameplay trailers, know something new about the mechanics of the game. I don't think it's OK to get close to the pre-order period with just pre-alpha videos.

4 hours ago, Gargamel said:

Build the community?  *Looks around*

This looks like linear growth to me. I'm not saying it's bad, but...

4 hours ago, Gargamel said:

That was a joke I executed on my own to actually poke fun at the devs a bit, with their permission of course. 

It was a good joke, really. But a Q&A would have been even better!

[kerbiloid]

AAA game?

Got it.

Spoiler

+ 

Spoiler

=

Spoiler

 

 

 

Edited April 16, 2022 by kerbiloid

[Gargamel]

3 minutes ago, Vl3d said:

For 60$

What $60?   You haven't paid a penny yet.  

4 minutes ago, Vl3d said:

This looks like linear growth to me. I'm not saying it's bad, but...

Of course there's no growth with such a small sample size, ~1 year after closure of development of KSP 1.   I've been a member of multiple single topic forums, moderator on a few, and this one is one of the more lively.   Of course we could cherry pick a long list of forums that prove me wrong, but we could also cherry pick a long list of forums that prove me right.   The KSP community is no need of "building".   It's built. 

9 minutes ago, Vl3d said:

But a Q&A would have been even better!

How would that be a joke?   The point of April fools day is to have some humor.   If they offered up a Q&A and then yanked it, it would just upset people.   You ask on one hand to "build the community" then request something that would fracture it even more on the other. 

Nobody has paid a penny for KSP2.  The dev team doesn't "owe" anybody anything.   When they do offer up stuff, they get yelled at for more and more often.   I frankly don't blame them for keeping their heads down, and ya know, actually working on the project rather than wasting time doing media updates. 

[Deadmeat24]

As I have said and will continue to say. Game devs have learned from no man's sky. As soon as they have all the details locked in and are just polishing up some things you will get big content drops. 

[Vl3d]

13 minutes ago, Gargamel said:

26 minutes ago, Vl3d said:

But a Q&A would have been even better!

How would that be a joke?

I have nothing but respect for this forum and its members and your work. It was a good joke. But I was referring to a Q&A in general, not as an April 1st joke.

13 minutes ago, Gargamel said:

The KSP community is no need of "building".   It's built. 

13 minutes ago, Gargamel said:

Nobody has paid a penny for KSP2.  The dev team doesn't "owe" anybody anything.

I think that if someone from corporate PR sees these messages they're gonna throw a fit.

Just now, Deadmeat24 said:

As soon as they have all the details locked in and are just polishing up some things you will get big content drops. 

When? We've had 5 posts in the last 6 months and the game is supposed to drop this year. And let me remind you: terrain rendering, atmospheric scattering, resource system abstractions, procedural radiators and interstellar travel. This is all info we already knew from 3 years ago.

Where's the marketing team? They should have a 20 mil. budget in my opinion. Why aren't they using it?

[t_v]

16 minutes ago, Vl3d said:

terrain rendering, atmospheric scattering, resource system abstractions, procedural radiators and interstellar travel. This is all info we already knew from 3 years ago.

Where did they say they would have a dynamic LOD system for terrain 3 years ago? Or atmospheric scattering? Or procedural radiators for that matter? The first trailer has banks of radiators, not big procedural ones. One year ago, when showcasing clouds, I didn't see any atmospheric scattering. And yes, we knew there was going to be a resource system and interstellar travel, but we didn't know how it was going to be implemented or what the focus was going to be on or what QoL features there were going to be. 

We have gotten new information about the game each time, and people have reasonably posted that it seems like they are moving into the polish phase - something that absolutely won't happen if essential components of the game aren't finished. 

[Jcklemme]

2 hours ago, Vl3d said:

Where's the marketing team? They should have a 20 mil. budget in my opinion. Why aren't they using it?

I say this with all respect and am attacking you in no way, shape, or form; you have a lot of pie in the sky ideas and unrealistic expectations of how game dev works.  Why aren't they using the imaginary marketing budget that exists in your head?  That's just it, the budget you dreamed up and have convinced yourself exists isn't real.  I've seen you pushing for a lot of unrealistic ideas or things that would be totally unsuited to a game like KSP.  KSP2 being an MMO, bridges of atmosphere between planets that you can fly a jet through, extreme sports like skiing, the devs maintaining a curated mod interface, a July 20^th release date.  It seems you want a different game than Kerbal Space Program.

I don't disagree with you though on communication, I would like the devs to have more show and tells which technically wouldn't cost anything aside from the paid man hours to post some screenshots and do a quick write-up.  I'm currently on my eleventh year of hype for the Kerbal Space Program franchise and desperately would like to see what's next.  They aren't going to do it though no matter how much we scream and cry.  Three things can happen on this front, they keep radio silence and eventually show us some stuff shortly before release, they start showing us stuff now and continue until release, or they quietly cancel development of the game and it becomes vaporware.  Right now, I'd put all my money on the first one happening even though that's not fun or ideal for me.

Edited April 16, 2022 by Jcklemme

[Bej Kerman]

2 hours ago, Vl3d said:

Where's the marketing team? They should have a 20 mil. budget in my opinion. Why aren't they using it?

I'm not sure anyone likes the way you speak of the KSP 2 dev team. A lot of your posts have been complaints over how much information they're letting out. They are letting out enough information.

[adsii1970]

2 hours ago, Vl3d said:

This looks like linear growth to me. I'm not saying it's bad, but...

I am the "bean counter" that started keeping the numbers because, well, I am a nerd.

When I began doing the TOTMs, I wanted there to be some information within the thread that appealed to those, such as myself, who have an inner nerd that loves statistics.

That month, I looked at the total of new accounts created in April (2021) and compared it with the number of people making at least one post. For some odd reason, making just one post was enough for me to consider them as being an "active participant." But that number really bothered me. Over time of carefully paying attention, I began noticing why it bothered me. By the end of 2021, I knew I needed to change the criteria on how I was keeping the statistics.

Earlier this year, I made the decision to use the queue as the determining factor. If a new forum user is going to hang around long enough to make five posts to get themselves out of the queue, then they are an active forum user. This is why you see such a large drop between January 2022 and February 2022.

Spoiler

One of my first projects will be to go and edit the older TOTMs to include a note about how new active members should have been calculated, and the correct participation numbers should have been reported. Also, I will add the statistics to the TOTMs I did before the May 2021 edition. While I cannot go into a lot of detail now because of personal reasons, I will probably have more time for my nerdisms by the end of this year.

I am interested in various factors that may cause increases in new active member participation. Sure, there are new DLCs, bug fixes, and patches, but what else contributes?

 

[Pthigrivi]

3 hours ago, Vl3d said:

When?

Patience, brotha. They’re probably not going to start releasing big showcases on things like colonization or multiplayer for at least another 3-6 months, after the release date is announced and we’re approaching the release itself. Even after that they’re likely to hold a lot back to keep from spoiling too much. 
 

And as we’ve seen its not as if even a well-produced dev video on interplanetary travel suppresses everyone’s anxiety for new info for more than a week. It stirred up some great conversations though and got people thinking and getting exited. At this stage of the game thats great. I know you’re exited to know more just like all of us are. It’ll be ready when its ready. 

Edited April 16, 2022 by Pthigrivi

[Catto]

A rough estimate would be between 1$ - 100,000,000,000,000,000$

[Jcklemme]

10 minutes ago, siklidkid said:

A rough estimate would be between 1$ - 100,000,000,000,000,000$

I think you're really limiting yourself with that budget estimate, I would guess up to negative one quadrillion dollars just to be safe.  They could be paying for the pleasure of developing the game.

[mcwaffles2003]

5 hours ago, Vl3d said:

For 60$ we should see at least some gameplay trailers, know something new about the mechanics of the game. I don't think it's OK to get close to the pre-order period with just pre-alpha videos.

There are 7 10-30 min long episodes featuring gameplay and dev explanations,  13 essays/blog posts from devs detailing specific mechanics and how they're utilized/constructed, 18 show and tell posts giving small snippets, as well as many little other tid-bits like interviews scattered across the web....

 

Just sayin'....