Predicting the near and far future of KSP 2

[RocketRockington]

28 minutes ago, cocoscacao said:

Still better and more worth than most of the live-service stream games these days. But what can be included? More parts? Story driven campaign?

Who knows.  I was kidding.  Tbh I don't think we ever get to 1.0 as defined by that roadmap anyway. I strongly suspect that we'll never see multiplayer, not as anyone imagines it to be at least.   Maybe as some janky leaderboard thing, but not two players flying rockets side by side.

[cocoscacao]

2 minutes ago, RocketRockington said:

I strongly suspect that we'll never see multiplayer, not as anyone imagines it to be at least

TBH, I don't know why they pushed that idea so far. KSP is inherently a single-player game. I'd rather sacrifice MP experience for some advanced mechanics that are maybe blocked by it. All in due time I guess. I just hope I will be able to tear down flags planted by enemy competing space programs. May it bring the worst in Kerbals 

Regarding the topic itself, the forum is noticeably quieter after the first patch. I guess all game breaking stuff will be resolved within the next 2 patches, so they can move onwards to science.

My major concern for now is this topic. I've noticed that as well. How are we supposed to build orbital colony mega-structures, if space stations carry this bug from the first game? All in due time... again...

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

47 minutes ago, cocoscacao said:

Regarding the topic itself, the forum is noticeably quieter after the first patch. I guess all game breaking stuff will be resolved within the next 2 patches, so they can move onwards to science.

Yeah - it's certainly toned down.  That is a nice feature.

I'm certainly doing a lot more playing KSP2 than Bug Hunting.

[RocketRockington]

6 hours ago, cocoscacao said:

TBH, I don't know why they pushed that idea so far. KSP is inherently a single-player game. I'd rather sacrifice MP experience for some advanced mechanics that are maybe blocked by it. All in due time I guess. I just hope I will be able to tear down flags planted by enemy competing space programs. May it bring the worst in Kerbals 

I'd guess a couple of thing. 

First, there's the fact that a multiplayer feature is, by gaming executives, a slam dunk as far as increasing sales.  You look at the top grossing games out there and they're all multiplayer.  Multiplayer helps spread word of mouth, promotes socially incentivized  purchases - your friend has the DLC so you buy the DLC - and in other games makes selling cosmetics a cash cow instead of a novelty.

Second is just a pure failure of imagination, coming up with other things to sell as top line features.

Edited March 21, 2023 by RocketRockington

[Datau03]

5 hours ago, RocketRockington said:

Who knows.  I was kidding.  Tbh I don't think we ever get to 1.0 as defined by that roadmap anyway. I strongly suspect that we'll never see multiplayer, not as anyone imagines it to be at least.   Maybe as some janky leaderboard thing, but not two players flying rockets side by side.

I am very faithful in the devs making this an amazing game. They have been playing multiplayer and the other stuff like interstellar and colonies for  years and there is a lot of stuff relating to this in the gamefiles too.  I think the features do not need that much more work.

[RocketRockington]

31 minutes ago, Datau03 said:

I am very faithful in the devs making this an amazing game. They have been playing multiplayer and the other stuff like interstellar and colonies for  years and there is a lot of stuff relating to this in the gamefiles too.  I think the features do not need that much more work.

Ok, well, if they're close to being done, we should see KSP2 1.0 in just a few months, since they've been playing them for years.  What odds on use seeing KSP2, with colonies and multiplayer, done by July?  I don't think we can gamble on the forums but I'd love to see how much money I could make off of you if we could

[Dantheollie]

In my opinion, by the end of 2023, KSP2 will have the first two parts of the roadmap complete. Their approach to fixing the game seems to be quality-over-quantity. 2-3 weeks for a hefty bunch of bug-fixes that very quickly add up.

There are relatively simple fixes which I can see coming very soon that should substantially improve performance. Simple things like the remeshing of the geometrically intense Kerbal hair, for example. I think KSP2 will become enjoyably-playable within the next two to three months, (at least). That should leave them with ~6 months to focus on the roadmap, and the revamping of certain features, like the poorly named CBT.

I doubt Take-Two would axe KSP2 so quickly. They might be greedy, but they are not stupid. They WILL find a way to make their money, I can assure you.
Colour me surprised if they do. I'll eat a jar of mayonnaise and upload the video to the forums, or something... 

[Tazooka]

10 minutes ago, Dantheollie said:

I'll eat a jar of mayonnaise and upload the video to the forums, or something... 

I want to see this. But the cost is too great

[GGG-GoodGuyGreg]

Wow, a lot of optimism here.

 

Quote

1. When do you think the game will be at a similar level of KSP 1? (minimal bugs, science mode & stable)

I think 1.5 years, because you mentioned the "stable" and "minimal" characteristics which I don't think will come easy and fast.

 

Quote

2. When do you predict KSP 2 v1.0 will be released? (all future updates)

I don't think we'll see KSP2 1.0 sooner than 3 years due to the complexity of the complete roadmap (colonies, multiplayer, etc), but that's only true if both the fans and investors gradually believe more and more in KSP2. Fingers crossed.

 

Quote

3. When do you think the next patch will be released? (v0.1.2.0)

I think 4 weeks because they managed to shut up a lot of people (including me) with the release of the first patch which was quite featured imho, so maybe now they will have the space they need to accomplish more, for which they would need more time. Or, maybe now they just release more often and with less fixes. We'll see.

[Tazooka]

Leading predictions so far at 21 hours & 71 voters

1. When do you think the game will be at a similar level of KSP 1? (minimal bugs, science mode & stable)
Close between ~6 months (24 @ 33.8%) and ~1 year (21 @ 29.58%)

2. When do you predict KSP 2 v1.0 will be released? (all future updates)
~ 2 years (31 @ 43.66%)

3. When do you think the next patch will be released? (v0.1.2.0)
3 weeks (32 @ 45.07%)

 

I would say this could be pretty accurate, between 6 months and 1 year for the game to be at the state of KSP seems reasonable and doable.

~2 years for the 1.0 release also seems possible, considering all the datamined files, assets and code other members of the community have discovered.

and lastly, 3 weeks till the next update is approximately the same time frame as the first patch, so if they're consistent with this, it'll help the state of 1 & 2.

Edited March 21, 2023 by Tazooka
More

[VlonaldKerman]

14 hours ago, cocoscacao said:

TBH, I don't know why they pushed that idea so far. KSP is inherently a single-player game. I'd rather sacrifice MP experience for some advanced mechanics that are maybe blocked by it.

Personally, I'm not too jazzed about multiplayer. If I could sacrifice MP and guarantee that colony systems and interstellar travel will work perfectly and be great, then I would.

[Cpt Kerbalkrunch]

11 hours ago, RocketRockington said:

I'd guess a couple of thing. 

First, there's the fact that a multiplayer feature is, by gaming executives, a slam dunk as far as increasing sales.  You look at the top grossing games out there and they're all multiplayer.  Multiplayer helps spread word of mouth, promotes socially incentivized  purchases - your friend has the DLC so you buy the DLC - and in other games makes selling cosmetics a cash cow instead of a novelty.

Second is just a pure failure of imagination, coming up with other things to sell as top line features.

I think your point about failure of imagination is a good one. It's just accepted now that multiplayer is the way to go, and everyone seems to be doing it. Not a multiplayer guy myself (limited amount of time, and often have to walk away from the screen; which makes KSP ideal), so I don't have much feeling about it one way or the other.

It's no coincidence that MP is the last part of the road map, though. It'll be the toughest feature to implement by far. I imagine it will be SOI based, but I still have a hard time figuring out how they'll make it work. If I need a 3 month orbit to come around to your space station, that presents challenges.

One way I think it'll really work, and BDArmory proved it, is in aerial combat. There are already games that do it well, but the uniqueness of KSP completely sets it apart. The KSP physics, the settings of Kerbin or Laythe, and just being able to create your own plane piece by piece however you want. I think it was a big mistake on Squad's part not to put some development time into it; and maybe even a DLC. It would've been a great way to expand the fan base. Whether it's 1 on 1 combat, huge aerial dogfights, teams, tournaments, there's a lot of opportunity there. Again, not an MP guy (and I don't really build planes cuz I'm terrible at it), but I would really like to see that and I'm pretty sure I'd find the videos entertaining.  Still think it's  a long way off, though.

[mcwaffles2003]

I think we will be near KSP 1 type play by 3 months, that's 5 total updates if they're every 3 weeks

8 hours ago, VlonaldKerman said:

Personally, I'm not too jazzed about multiplayer. If I could sacrifice MP and guarantee that colony systems and interstellar travel will work perfectly and be great, then I would.

22 hours ago, cocoscacao said:

TBH, I don't know why they pushed that idea so far. KSP is inherently a single-player game. I'd rather sacrifice MP experience for some advanced mechanics that are maybe blocked by it. All in due time I guess. I just hope I will be able to tear down flags planted by enemy competing space programs. May it bring the worst in Kerbals 

Regarding the topic itself, the forum is noticeably quieter after the first patch. I guess all game breaking stuff will be resolved within the next 2 patches, so they can move onwards to science.

My major concern for now is this topic. I've noticed that as well. How are we supposed to build orbital colony mega-structures, if space stations carry this bug from the first game? All in due time... again...

I think multiplayer will have a lot more to offer than simply playing with other people. With this communities heavy modding base and the open playstyle of KSP new types of games will be born from this. Warcraft 3 brought DOTA and the mechanics for overwatch were built out of CS 1.6 warcraft mods... I can't wait to see the custom game modes KSP 2 will breed

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

4 person private lobby hosted on one person's PC.  CoOp or competing. 

2 years. 

[b0054254]

47 minutes ago, mcwaffles2003 said:

I think multiplayer will have a lot more to offer than simply playing with other people. With this communities heavy modding base and the open playstyle of KSP new types of games will be born from this. Warcraft 3 brought DOTA and the mechanics for overwatch were built out of CS 1.6 warcraft mods... I can't wait to see the custom game modes KSP 2 will breed

I can see multiplayer in KSP II bringing a whole new version of collaborative play where 1 player for instance focuses of harvesting and processing X(Which can only be found on Minmus) at their Minmus colony and bringing to the Orbital Shipyard in orbit of Jool, with other players focusing on other materials across the Kerbolar System all bringing it to that orbital shipyard where everything is put together into an Interstellar Fleet that all the players will fly together on their first Interstellar space shot.

This is what I believe will be the biggest impact of multiplayer,  2-4 players working together to gather materials for Interstellar class ships before sailing out into the cosmos together towards Deb Deb and other destinations.

[Rosten]

I'm not at all optimistic about the future of the game.  Both from how they handled the last 5 years and what their approach has been since release.  Also, the number of people in leadership that fled right before the launch (ex. Paige) or were fired right after (ex. Paul).

Their first steps towards righting the spaceship were to start switching the rendering engine and embark on what is essentially research to get CBT working better than existing methods for this kind of game.  Did KSP 2 need either of these?  No, KSP is a game with cartoonish graphics where the draw is the engineering content.  The problem with KSP 2, other than its performance, was all the features and improvements to long-standing problems with KSP 1 like the physics system were missing.  If you had asked people prior to this what the top 3 things they were most looking forward to in KSP 2 were, cutting-edge graphics wouldn't have made the cut, nor were there complaints about the graphics in the trailer or the episodic videos since.   The things they want to attempt weren't really options until around 2021, and there are plenty of beautiful and performant Unity games prior to that, so treating them as something they need to move forward feels like we're going to be taken on a Star Citizen "wait for the Jesus tech that unblocks everything, it's on the roadmap" adventure, while feature non-existence persists for years.

So, my predictions, looking back from 5 years in the future (hello to those in 2028 who somehow survived):

• they gave up on extending CBT to look good with planetary-scale terrain
• there were many updates worth of graphical improvements paired with cosmetic DLC/MTX
• unmodded KSP 2 still looks worse than modded KSP 1
• the Kraken survived its attempted slaying
• interstellar is shallow, just cranking time acceleration and waiting
• colonization is something like landing a build menu on a planet to place parts from some sort of base juice resource or base part cargo container resource rather than the more realistic station construction where you haul/unfurl/dock actual parts like in KSP 1
• the base parts added no new gameplay beyond things already in KSP 1 like science and the VAB, adding new gameplay to them is Soon
• the binary planets with complex orbits are still Soon
• multiplayer is still Soon

[Lyneira]

On 3/21/2023 at 1:14 AM, cocoscacao said:

Still better and more worth than most of the live-service stream games these days. But what can be included? More parts? Story driven campaign?

I'm a little worried they'll stick robotics in a DLC far down the line once again. I've seen some cool stuff come out of KSP1's robotics DLC but I hadn't played for a long time and wasn't motivated enough to pick the game back up.

I was looking forward to trying some stuff with propeller engines, movable wings and rotating engines in KSP2, but that doesn't seem like it'll be happening any time soon, if at all.

[RocketRockington]

3 hours ago, Rosten said:

I'm not at all optimistic about the future of the game.  Both from how they handled the last 5 years and what their approach has been since release.  Also, the number of people in leadership that fled right before the launch (ex. Paige) or were fired right after (ex. Paul).

Their first steps towards righting the spaceship were to start switching the rendering engine and embark on what is essentially research to get CBT working better than existing methods for this kind of game.  Did KSP 2 need either of these?  No, KSP is a game with cartoonish graphics where the draw is the engineering content.  The problem with KSP 2, other than its performance, was all the features and improvements to long-standing problems with KSP 1 like the physics system were missing.  If you had asked people prior to this what the top 3 things they were most looking forward to in KSP 2 were, cutting-edge graphics wouldn't have made the cut, nor were there complaints about the graphics in the trailer or the episodic videos since.   The things they want to attempt weren't really options until around 2021, and there are plenty of beautiful and performant Unity games prior to that, so treating them as something they need to move forward feels like we're going to be taken on a Star Citizen "wait for the Jesus tech that unblocks everything, it's on the roadmap" adventure, while feature non-existence persists for years.

So, my predictions, looking back from 5 years in the future (hello to those in 2028 who somehow survived):

• they gave up on extending CBT to look good with planetary-scale terrain
• there were many updates worth of graphical improvements paired with cosmetic DLC/MTX
• unmodded KSP 2 still looks worse than modded KSP 1
• the Kraken survived its attempted slaying
• interstellar is shallow, just cranking time acceleration and waiting
• colonization is something like landing a build menu on a planet to place parts from some sort of base juice resource or base part cargo container resource rather than the more realistic station construction where you haul/unfurl/dock actual parts like in KSP 1
• the base parts added no new gameplay beyond things already in KSP 1 like science and the VAB, adding new gameplay to them is Soon
• the binary planets with complex orbits are still Soon
• multiplayer is still Soon

This feels like a valid prediction, if KSP2 revenues land somewhere in the territory of worth keeping the thing on life support.  They probably have some rope to keep up thier current burn rate for a short period of time, but I can't see T2 keeping a full team on this for  another two years with sales as third party sites like Vg insights are predicting them to be.  

[Cpt Kerbalkrunch]

4 hours ago, Rosten said:

I'm not at all optimistic about the future of the game.  Both from how they handled the last 5 years and what their approach has been since release.  Also, the number of people in leadership that fled right before the launch (ex. Paige) or were fired right after (ex. Paul).

Their first steps towards righting the spaceship were to start switching the rendering engine and embark on what is essentially research to get CBT working better than existing methods for this kind of game.  Did KSP 2 need either of these?  No, KSP is a game with cartoonish graphics where the draw is the engineering content.  The problem with KSP 2, other than its performance, was all the features and improvements to long-standing problems with KSP 1 like the physics system were missing.  If you had asked people prior to this what the top 3 things they were most looking forward to in KSP 2 were, cutting-edge graphics wouldn't have made the cut, nor were there complaints about the graphics in the trailer or the episodic videos since.   The things they want to attempt weren't really options until around 2021, and there are plenty of beautiful and performant Unity games prior to that, so treating them as something they need to move forward feels like we're going to be taken on a Star Citizen "wait for the Jesus tech that unblocks everything, it's on the roadmap" adventure, while feature non-existence persists for years.

So, my predictions, looking back from 5 years in the future (hello to those in 2028 who somehow survived):

• they gave up on extending CBT to look good with planetary-scale terrain
• there were many updates worth of graphical improvements paired with cosmetic DLC/MTX
• unmodded KSP 2 still looks worse than modded KSP 1
• the Kraken survived its attempted slaying
• interstellar is shallow, just cranking time acceleration and waiting
• colonization is something like landing a build menu on a planet to place parts from some sort of base juice resource or base part cargo container resource rather than the more realistic station construction where you haul/unfurl/dock actual parts like in KSP 1
• the base parts added no new gameplay beyond things already in KSP 1 like science and the VAB, adding new gameplay to them is Soon
• the binary planets with complex orbits are still Soon
• multiplayer is still Soon

I'm with you on the cartoonish nature of some of the game's look, and I think multiplayer is a long way off, but the game itself can be sharpened considerably in a (relatively) short time. Just adding atmospheric heating and some type of progression mode would change my entire opinion of the game. At that point, it would basically be a paired down version of KSP with shiny new graphics. That would be enough for me to make a permanent switch, I think. Player count would certainly rise; perhaps by quite a bit.

For now, I keep coming back (the KSP bug has me again, and I can't seem to shake it, so I convince myself to give it another try) only to end up the same way. I mess around in the VAB (with no real purpose) and finally give up because launching rockets is kinda pointless when I know the end is gonna be so underwhelming.

On the plus-side, I'm definitely encouraged that Nate addressed this specifically in his first post after the patch. They obviously know it's a huge problem that takes a lot of the fun out of the game. Hope it's solved before I'm cured of the KSP bug again.

[Alexoff]

I think the vision for the future of KSP2 will become more and more beautiful every month, as only the most fanatically dedicated players will remain on the forum. When expectations roll from the level of "wow, the game will have megaships, colonies and multiplayer in a year" to "wow, after a bunch of delays, features from the previous game will be added to the game, and bugs will be removed!", then millions who bought KSP1 years ago will not play the second part. T2, looking at the failure in sales, will cut funding and the roadmap will be implemented, like the core of KSP2 itself - as a very raw alpha version. Because canceling the game is too big a blow to the reputation, but to continue funding at the same level with such results is simply stupid.

[Tazooka]

Update #2: Leading predictions so far at 65 hours & 93 voters

1. When do you think the game will be at a similar level of KSP 1? (minimal bugs, science mode & stable)
Even split between ~6 months (30 @ 32.26%) and ~1 year (30 @ 32.26%)

2. When do you predict KSP 2 v1.0 will be released? (all future updates)
~ 2 years (42 @ 45.16%)

3. When do you think the next patch will be released? (v0.1.2.0)
3 weeks (41 @ 44.09%)

 

Interesting that 1 is now at even amounts between ~6 months and ~1 year and then the 3rd highest option is 2+ years!

2 hasn't changed much.

3 still predicts 3 weeks till the next patch, but 2 and 4 weeks have evened out.
 

You can see Update #1 here (or scroll up a bit)

Edited March 23, 2023 by Tazooka

[Superfluous J]

On 3/22/2023 at 4:22 AM, Rosten said:

So, my predictions, looking back from 5 years in the future (hello to those in 2028 who somehow survived):

You forgot:
X) All the people who were complaining back at the launch in 2023 are still playing the game and complaining about it in 2028.

[Royalswissarmyknife]

My Prediction is we will at least see science by the end of 2023.

[Tazooka]

15 minutes ago, Royalswissarmyknife said:

My Prediction is we will at least see science by the end of 2023.

Yeah, I expect that too. I'd be very surprised and disappointed if science wasn't released by then.

Maybe even Colonies will be ready

[Jacob Kerman]

On 3/20/2023 at 1:28 PM, TLTay said:

I think it'll get a couple more updates before the T2 yearly earnings are reported, then it will be cancelled since it'll be another 3-5 years until complete.  It's a complex, expensive title with a smaller customer base that has encountered significant setbacks and has massive technical debt. It'd be a poor business choice to continue to fund it. I think they're keeping it on a ventilator until yearly earnings, then the axe will fall.

Unpopular opinion warning. Oops, did I put that afterward?

"No, no, he has a point"