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Maximum number of possible things that could have happened in the Universe.


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So... the other day, I was having an interesting conversation with my dad, whereby he proclaimed that some mathematicians proved that any odds less than 1 in 10^50 are impossible. My dad figured this had to do with the number of possible things that could have happened in the Universe. I hardly believed this, and soon discovered that there wasn't much basis to the claim, with no actual mathematicians being named or a paper about the topic being published.

That being said, it did make me wonder just how many things could have happened since the Universe was created, and so I decided to give it my best (and probably very inaccurate) attempt.

There are a few important assumptions/exemptions being done here due to their inability to be quantified for the math. These are (A) The whole of the Universe is the Observable Universe. Since we can't measure what we can't detect, there's no point in trying to guess the true size of the Universe. (B) Excluding quantum entanglement, since AFAIK, there is no defined likely hood of two particles being entangled at any given time. © Nothing can happen in an area smaller than a Planck length, or within the time frame of a Planck time, as these give me quantifiable lower limits to calculate from.

So, how am I to define what this overall number is? Well, since we have an assumed lower limit of space and time, you can look at the total number of possible things as the total number of Planck times that have passed since the beginning of the Universe for ever single Planck distance in the Universe.

Also, before we get started, I'm just going to put it out there that I am in no way a mathematician... I'm just playing with numbers and concepts to see if I can come up with a reasonable result.

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When one does the math, it looks like this:

(Number of seconds in one year) * (number of years since Big Bang) * (number of Planck times in one second) * (((diameter of Universe in light years * number of meters in a light year) * (number of Planck lengths in one meter)^3)

Plug in everything, and you get:

(31536000) * (13.8 billion) * (10^43) * (((93.2 billion * 9460730472580800) * 10^35)^3)

Which equals...

2.9833722131840529387713610213106904832991331368301368442... × 10^246

So... now the question is... how completely wrong is my way of looking at the problem?

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Nothing can happen in an area smaller than a Planck length, or within the time frame of a Planck time.

I am pretty sure there isn't any real physical basis for this claim, aside from a few hypothesis.

And the flaw in your calculation is: Saying "the odds of something happening is 1 to 10^50" is meaningless without context. If the odds of winning the lottery is 1 to 10^8, then we know the context that there is one lottery every month.

One has to specify: "The odds of something happening is 1 to 10^50 EVERY SECOND". Then the calculation is trivial. You just have to know the age of the universe.

Edited by N_las
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I am pretty sure there isn't any real physical basis for this claim, aside from a few hypothesis.

As I said, I needed some lower limit.

And the flaw in your calculation is: Saying "the odds of something happening is 1 to 10^50" is meaningless without context. If the odds of winning the lottery is 1 to 10^8, then we know the context that there is one lottery every month.

One has to specify: "The odds of something happening is 1 to 10^50 EVERY SECOND". Then the calculation is trivial. You just have to know the age of the universe.

I wasn't the one that asserted that 1 in 10^50 claim.

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You forgot to add in the number of possibilities at each instance. One could make the next leap and say that the number of possibilities at any given instance are equal to the number of possibilities that have been possible since the Big Bang, so now you've got 3x10^246 possibilities at every instance, so 3x10^246 * 3x10^246 = 9x10^492 possibilities

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You forgot to add in the number of possibilities at each instance. One could make the next leap and say that the number of possibilities at any given instance are equal to the number of possibilities that have been possible since the Big Bang, so now you've got 3x10^246 possibilities at every instance, so 3x10^246 * 3x10^246 = 9x10^492 possibilities

Wouldn't the number of possibilities also "decrease", due to... well suppose a newly formed universe can end up with any number of physical laws... Once it ends with some... There are limits put in place on what can happen. Also, when a universe expands and cools it's particles have less energy leading to even less options?

I just mean that in our universe, not everything "can" happen. Just because icecreams exist and I exist, doesn't necessarily mean that icecreams spontaniously appear in my hand ... Or that I spontaniously appear as an icecream in someones hand (... oddly though I rate the chance of this being someone somewheres sexual fantasy rather high... humanity disturbs me at times).

Edited by 78stonewobble
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