What would the target be for manned mission after Mars?

[CaptRobau]

Since the Moon landing, people have earmarked Mars as the next target for manned exploration. Most other targets also often lead up to Mars too: Near Earth Asteroids, Phobos/Deimos or even a return to the Moon. But I rarely hear anything about targets post-Mars. While Mars can possibly keep the public's attention for longer than the Moon can, after decades people will look beyond the Red Planet. What will be the destination after that?

[Karriz]

I think Ceres, especially if the Dawn probe finds plenty of water ice (and possibly liquid water underneath). Flyby of Venus would also be possible with the technology it takes to get to Mars.

Moons of Jupiter would probably come after that, but since the inner moons have so much radiation, Callisto is the best choice for manned mission. Maybe it could be used as a base to monitor probe missions to other moons.

[Starman4308]

Flyby of Venus would also be possible with the technology it takes to get to Mars.

I would find that one unlikely: the obvious question is "why?" If your astronauts aren't going to go out, collect samples, and do other things you need a human for, why not stick the same instruments on an unmanned probe and reduce the cost ~95%?

Ceres and the moons of Jupiter are much more likely candidates: there is an actual purpose to sending people there beyond "we can".

[Karriz]

I would find that one unlikely: the obvious question is "why?" If your astronauts aren't going to go out, collect samples, and do other things you need a human for, why not stick the same instruments on an unmanned probe and reduce the cost ~95%?

Ceres and the moons of Jupiter are much more likely candidates: there is an actual purpose to sending people there beyond "we can".

Yeah, I agree. There's no reason to send people to Venus orbit, but it'd be possible if some entity ever wants to do so. Maybe some kind of upper atmosphere studies could be done, but it might as well be a probe.

[Scotius]

I agree - there is not much more that a human crew can do near Venus than unmanned missions can. Ceres, other asteroids and Jupiter system seems more obvious targets for manned exploration.

[magnemoe]

Note that manned asteroid missions is likely to come before an Mars mission, then we talk near earth ones not the belt who would make sense after an mars mission.

[Faark]

Could you please specify "after Mars"? There is little real benefit to go somewhere, return and pick a new target. But once we got a colony on mars, we should have a reusable rockets as well as the tech to keep us alive in space for a long time. Also one of the biggest business on mars will probably become spaceflight, since it costs less fuel to launch.

On the long term (and we are talking about 10-20+ years anyway) humans will go where humans can survive.

[Sky_walker]

The "after Mars" target won't happen in our life time.

I would be very happy to see humans creating a small colony on Mars before my own death. Maybe, just maybe, people that are born right now have some hope for seeing humans land on another planetary body than Mars (or a dwarf planet) in their life, though I wouldn't have too high hopes for that either.

Edited October 27, 2014 by Sky_walker

[SargeRho]

I'd say Saturn, specifically Titan.

Although we'll be busy with Mars for a while after the first manned mission there.

[KerikBalm]

The target would be intelligent robots so that we don't need to send people.

The only reason to send people, is if people can live there with a little work.

[Mitchz95]

We'll almost certainly have a colony on Mars before we start sending people to other worlds. I think a scientific space station near Jupiter and its moons would be the next hot spot, because of the wide range of targets to study there. Manned missions to Ceres will probably not happen; scientific gain or not, the image of astronauts standing on another barren rock will not be very inspirational or effective. And there's literally nothing for astronauts to do during a Venus flyby, so we may as well stick with probes.

[crazyewok]

Flyby of Venus would also be possible with the technology it takes to get to Mars.

Whats the point though?

A unmanned probe could do that.

[KerikBalm]

there's literally nothing for astronauts to do during a Venus flyby, so we may as well stick with probes.

They can write poetry... we must make sure to sent poets on all our manned missions from now on, to maximize the return.

Imagine how good the few (dozen?) hundred billion USD poetry collection that results will be!

(The above respone was sarcasm)

[Tommygun]

Possible goals:

Mercury is like Moho, no one wants to go there.

Venus is just too hard for humans with current technology and will stay that way for a very long time.

A permanent Moon base/colony.

A Permanent Mars colony.

Asteroid Belt would be a good place for general science and research for much later mining, but it will bore the public.

Jupiter is a good spot, the radiation will be a challenge.

Saturn and Titan would be my choice, but it's harder to get to.

Uranus, Neptune and Pluto (Yes I'm including Pluto) are just too far for any near future effort.

[astropapi1]

Born too late to explore earth, but too early to explore space. *sigh*

I'm young, but I highly doubt I'll see much more that a moon base and a mars landing in my lifetime. Lots of stuff can happen in the following 70/80 years, though.

[MuXu96]

makes me kinda sad.. always thought, being born in the 19th or 20th century (well, I konow I was born at the end of it) would suck, because of the scientific progress at that point..

but seems like living right now isn't THAT crazy either.. it's probably a feeling ppl in 2100 will have as well, but I'd like to know where all of this goes.

[metaphor]

Venus orbit would be useful for controlling rovers on the ground in real-time, which is a pretty big advantage (many minutes of light round-trip time compared to less than a second). There have been Mars orbital mission plans with the same goal. And people have even talked about it for the Moon, where the light-time lag is just a couple of seconds.

In terms of difficulty, I would say it goes something like Moon orbit - Asteroid (NEO) - Moon surface - Venus orbit - Phobos/Deimos - Mars surface - Mercury orbit - Ceres orbit - Ceres surface - Jupiter orbit - Callisto surface - Saturn orbit - Titan surface - Mercury surface - Uranus orbit - Neptune orbit.

Venus is as easy to reach as Mars is in terms of delta-v, and there's a lower round-trip time. The nearest NEO asteroids are even easier to reach and require less time ("in the wild", not captured in lunar orbit like ARM). Ceres actually requires a lot of delta-v to reach, more than Mercury orbit (with gravity assists), and a longer mission time. Ceres is very easy to land on once in orbit. Jupiter is not that hard to reach in terms of delta-v, but requires a lot of time (about 2 years there and 2 years back for a fast transfer). Callisto is the only one of Jupiter's major moons that doesn't have a deadly radiation environment. The Saturn system is a lot more forgiving in terms of radiation, but it takes a lot more time than Jupiter. Mercury has the surface gravity of Mars but without the helpful atmosphere, so it takes a lot of delta-v to land and take off.

[Beowolf]

Born too late to explore earth, but too early to explore space.

Most of Earth is under water, and almost completely unexplored. Even oil workers are discovering amazing new life forms. I saw a TED talk the other day by a marine biologist. She always liked manta rays, and was surprised she couldn't find any actual scientific data on them. So she did her doctoral dissertation on them. The first research ever done on manta rays. Ever. Anywhere. Twenty years later she's the world's foremost expert on them, humanity knows thousands of times more about them, and it isn't boring. They're actually quite intelligent, with the largest brains of any fish. She also discovered just in-time they were being wiped out by a new natural-medicine fad in China, and already successfully lobbied for protection in several countries.

There's adventure to be found, if you're serious about it.

[AbortButton]

I would think that a post-mars landing would likely be on an asteroid since it's a body we can actually reach with our current manned mission technology.

[Bill Phil]

I think before Mars is more interesting. If we set up a space logistics system capable of delivering 20 tons per week to the moon, then we can build some serious lunar bases.

After we get some bases on the moon, we go and grab some Apollo asteroids and start mining them, as well as building deep space stations beyond Earth orbit. Then we build very massive spacecraft out of these asteroids and deliver tons of payload to Mars. Finally, we create some von Neumann machines to explore the outer systems and gather data, as well as building bases and stations for later crews.

[Drunken Hobo]

makes me kinda sad.. always thought, being born in the 19th or 20th century (well, I konow I was born at the end of it) would suck, because of the scientific progress at that point..

but seems like living right now isn't THAT crazy either.. it's probably a feeling ppl in 2100 will have as well, but I'd like to know where all of this goes.

What!? You've witnessed the birth of the most significant invention in the history of humanity - the internet.

Back on topic, I wonder if we'd attempt a Phobos or Deimos landing before a full-on Mars landing. Would be a long trip just for an asteroid, but Apollo 8 & 10 were vital missions, this could be their equivalent.

Edited November 1, 2014 by Drunken Hobo

[Polish_Hydra IX]

Maybe Europa, because of the the possibility of life*

*I bet on my mothers grave that there is.