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SpaceShipTwo Crash

Mr Shifty

By Mr Shifty
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Fuzzy Dunlop

Fuzzy Dunlop

Posted
Posted (edited)
Whilst I don't think this will be the end to space tourism, there is a bit of a conformation bias going on here. There have also been cases of single events effectively ending progress.

1937 - Hindenburg disaster results in almost complete death of airship industry.

2000 - Concorde crash ultimately results in Concorde being retired & the end of commercial supersonic flight.

I wonder if the SpaceShipTwo design will survive this.

Neither of those events are as important as is portrayed. Airships were already being overtaken by aeroplanes. Additionally there was a series of disasters involving very large airships: The british R101 in 1930, the USS Akron and USS Macon in 1933 and 1935 (both of which used Helium). The Hindenberg was just the final nail in the coffin.

Concorde failed in 1973 when it lost almost all its orders apart from from the 14 from Air France and British Airways. Without a proven market for supersonic transport no one has been willing to gamble the $Billions it would take to develop a successor. The crash didn't have that much effect; by the 2000s the airframes were nearing the end of their lifespan, spare parts were running out and the cockpit and cabin were becoming very dated.

That said, I think this is may well be the end of Virgin Galactic.

Edited by Fuzzy Dunlop
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NovaSilisko

NovaSilisko

Posted
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[snip]

They're right, by the way. SS2's original scheduled spaceflight was 2008 IIRC. The hybrid engine has been wracked with problems throughout the intervening years. The design doesn't really have much prospect or utility for things like point-to-point suborbital transport, feathered reentry only works at the very low velocities SS2 would be traveling at. A vehicle going across the Atlantic for example would need comparable heat shielding to an orbital craft. And even then, it's still far too costly to be feasible.* Many people in the industry have been talking about the issues they've been having for years, but nothing really changed...

These things are all definitely doable. But I have growing doubts that it will be done by Virgin Galactic after today.

*with current tech. We'll see what the future holds, but I don't think SS2's tech help much with it.

On a side note, I am extremely bothered by the president of Scaled Composites calling changing the fuel "a small nuance" during the press conference. Hint: it's not. They had to make major modifications to the engine and vehicle to accommodate it, including new helium and methane tanks. That's not a "nuance".

Edited by Vanamonde
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Nibb31

Nibb31

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Posted (edited)

[snip]

But it doesn't change the fact many voices in the industry have been warning Scaled Composite and Virgin Galactic that this new engine hasn't been properly tested on the ground, that hybrid engines are fundamentally flawed, and that the current test flight schedule was wreckless. Pointing that out is stating the truth, not being insensitive.

Edited by Vanamonde
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Ignath

Ignath

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Seeing as its only just happened a thorough investigation likely still pending!

Yes, but the President of Scaled also said the engine and fuel change-out was as small 'nuance' change.

Most likely the 'nuanced' change was the major factor in the event today...

Edit: Ninja'd by NovaSilisko :D

Edited by Ignath
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Nibb31

Nibb31

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I hope Virgin Galactic's reputation doesn't get messed up. The ship and the crew are replaceable, but a future is not.

Wait, the SS2 has an ejection system?

No it doesn't. It looks like the pilots were "ejected" when the aircraft broke up around them. It must have been terrifying experience.

Also, crew is replaceable ? WTF ?

Edited by Nibb31
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Starwhip

Starwhip

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Posted
I hope Virgin Galactic's reputation doesn't get messed up. The ship and the crew are replaceable, but a future is not.

Wait, the SS2 has an ejection system?

:mad:

Whoah whoah whoah, sir, these are PEOPLE here, we're not in KSP right now.

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NovaSilisko

NovaSilisko

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This thing has taken enough lives

Specific context: 3 test engineers were killed in 2007 when a nitrous oxide tank that was being tested for SS2 detonated. Scaled Composites claimed some bogus about that not being a known failure mode of nitrous oxide tanks or something. And for some reason they didn't evacuate the area during the test.

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ScriptKitt3h

ScriptKitt3h

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Posted

Shame this had to happen, especially in the same week as Antares going up in smoke.

My thoughts are with the dead pilot, his family, and his injured partner.

On another note, I really hope some political schmuck in Congress doesn't try to make a name for him/herself by attacking NASA CCDev or other related commercial spaceflight programs.

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