China could launch a manned lunar flyby next year (if their crazy)...

[xenomorph555]

With the success of C5-T1 the Chinese now have the capability to return from lunar distances. They now also have the capability to launch a manned shenzhou on a flyby around the moon next year, how so you ask, let me explain:

They have a manned ship:check

They have launched moon missions:check

They can return:check

They have the rocket:not check

Next year the Long March 5 will launch for it's first flight, they will be testing the big variant needed to fly the shenzhou to the moon. If they modified the shenzhou with T1 heat shields and deep space communication, they could launch the mission on the first flight. However they would need to be crazy (which their not but maybe north korea...) for a number of reasons:

The LM-5 has not flown before.

They have only returned once.

There has never been a 9 day shenzhou mission.

However if they decided to be crazy and do it, they could do it next year...

[kStrout]

All because NASA decided to build a rocket more expensive than what was already available instead of focusing efforts on a moon base.

[Streetwind]

Why use the opportunity to say something negative, instead of simply commending China on their constant, deliberate progress towards a manned space program? The Science forums get so grumpy these days, I just don't know what happened...

[Dodgey]

Here's hoping for a space race 2.0

[xenomorph555]

All because NASA decided to build a rocket more expensive than what was already available instead of focusing efforts on a moon base.

No, all because the Chinese work hard towards a goal. They would have got to this point regardless of what NASA did or does.

And what rocket are you talking about anyway, STS or SLS.

[xenomorph555]

Here's hoping for a space race 2.0

As long as it's sustainable, amen

[Ralathon]

As long as it's sustainable, amen

Screw sustainability. The technological advances and opened commercial options are worth it, even if the space race fizzles out.

The first space race got us from suborbital flights to the moon and send dozens of probes to all major planets in the solar system. After the dust had settled we had a booming space industry allowing companies to send up weather, communication and GPS satellites.

If a second space race peaks with a Mars landing but leaves us with commercial companies working on asteroid mining and lunar resupply flights I am more than happy with that.

[Malokin]

if THEY'RE crazy

[Red Iron Crown]

Why use the opportunity to say something negative, instead of simply commending China on their constant, deliberate progress towards a manned space program? The Science forums get so grumpy these days, I just don't know what happened...

Amen, brother. I don't really care which country is making strides in space, as long as strides are being made. I truly hope China is able to succeed in pursuing their ambitious goals in space. Good on them for having the vision and drive to come so far so quickly.

If their successes happen to spur other countries to treat space exploration as something other than an afterthought, so much the better.

[vger]

As much as I'd love to see it happen, I don't think China rocketing out towards space is going to get the U.S. going anywhere. Americans simply know too much now, to have any hope of getting the people excited about it. This sadly is one of the reasons that science in general probably isn't as popular as it could be.

We could land humans on Europa tomorrow, send a manned sub into the ocean, and then bring the entire crew back safely. And all most people would be thinking is, "Yeah, we can do that, but we still can't create jobs."

Russia might get involved, but the U.S. Meh... doubt it. Unless they manage to sell it like China reaching (wherever) first spells doom for the future of the economy.

Edited November 1, 2014 by vger

[AbhChallenger]

It won't happen. China's space program has always been starved of funds. Otherwise they would have had manned fights every year with multiple dockings to their space station.

There might be a slight possibility of them achieving a flags and footprints mission to the moon before the US returns. However, I suspect it will be limited even by Apollo standards. (One man open lander or something very simple and assembled in orbit)

The thing is China is learning that even it's own citizens care very little about manned spaceflight. In 1969 the world stopped and was watching a man step foot on the moon. Today it would be mostly a glance on a smartphone then back to facebook.

[Brethern]

As much as I'd love to see it happen, I don't think China rocketing out towards space is going to get the U.S. going anywhere. Americans simply know too much now, to have any hope of getting the people excited about it. This sadly is one of the reasons that science in general probably isn't as popular as it could be.

We could land humans on Europa tomorrow, send a manned sub into the ocean, and then bring the entire crew back safely. And all most people would be thinking is, "Yeah, we can do that, but we still can't create jobs."

Russia might get involved, but the U.S. Meh... doubt it. Unless they manage to sell it like China reaching (wherever) first spells doom for the future of the economy.

If they were capable of grasping the fact that a large space program would in fact create jobs, chances are there would be a space program going strong.

[Skyrunner27]

I think many people on this forum seriously underestimate the public interest in space flight. Fox News for crying out loud promoted NASA after the failure of Antares, and so did several other media organizations. Do you people forget the Curiosity landing and how much buzz surrounded that. Just because the average person won't go out of their way to watch a rocket launch or they don't think that funding for space programs should be the prime goal of the government does not mean that they don't care about it.

[Brethern]

I think many people on this forum seriously underestimate the public interest in space flight. Fox News for crying out loud promoted NASA after the failure of Antares, and so did several other media organizations. Do you people forget the Curiosity landing and how much buzz surrounded that. Just because the average person won't go out of their way to watch a rocket launch or they don't think that funding for space programs should be the prime goal of the government does not mean that they don't care about it.

I think the problem is that the public interest is no where near what it was, back in the 60's car companies gave astronauts deals or free sports cars.

How many astronauts do you see driving a corvette today? The problem is the same as the one in the 60's NASA landed two successful moon missions and people assumed they knew what they were doing, no having a satellite or a resupply mission to the space station is a space run. I remember when they showed the shuttle landing live on TV ten years ago or so. So there's interest but it's more conservative.

Also the reason why failures seem to generate more interest is because they don't happen often so they are a big deal.

[AbhChallenger]

I think many people on this forum seriously underestimate the public interest in space flight. Fox News for crying out loud promoted NASA after the failure of Antares, and so did several other media organizations. Do you people forget the Curiosity landing and how much buzz surrounded that. Just because the average person won't go out of their way to watch a rocket launch or they don't think that funding for space programs should be the prime goal of the government does not mean that they don't care about it.

That is the thing. The media only used it as a talking point when it was the thing to talk about. You don't usually hear it come up on facebook feeds or at the dinner table much anymore. As opposed to the 60s where it was all talk about moon and mars.

Is there some interest? A bit. However, not even close to enough for China or Russia or even the good ole USA to get the funding it so desperately needs to really advance exploration.

That is why I feel that this lunar flyby will not happen any time soon. It is not worth a few days of front page news.

[Camacha]

That is the thing. The media only used it as a talking point when it was the thing to talk about. You don't usually hear it come up on facebook feeds or at the dinner table much anymore. As opposed to the 60s where it was all talk about moon and mars.

Obviously there was a huge spike in the 60's, but that is the nature of the beast. There is something called an hype cycle (I am not making this up) and it seems to apply to space flight too. The curve is just a little more stretched than with most other technologies. The sequence is basically this:

- New technology

- Lot's of press, huge expectations, people are optimistic

- Reality sinks in, people realize there are downsides and issues

- Animo drops to a low point

- Slowly the issues are overcome and people learn to have more realistic expectations

- Technology becomes accepted and grows steadily

The spike obviously happened in the 60's and now we are just crawling out of the massive dip afterwards. Due to the massive expenses, huge complexity and relatively slow progress because a lot needs to be tested in the hard to access space, the cycle is just a lot slower than, say, the acceptance of the mobile phone or the internet.

[Kryten]

It won't happen. China's space program has always been starved of funds. Otherwise they would have had manned fights every year with multiple dockings to their space station.

Tiangong 1 has reached it's limit for visits for a number of reasons, and T-2 require CZ-7, which requires a new launchpad, which requires Wenchang. New rockets, launchpads and especially space centres are always going to take years no matter how much money you throw at them.

[Tommygun]

I don't think there is any reason for China to rush this.

It's not like they are racing anyone.

They need to test their rocket and test the new heat shield first.

Maybe do both at the same time, then do a nine day or longer manned flight in orbit.

It would probably be a good idea to do an unmanned Lunar flyby with all the flight hardware first.

[magnemoe]

No, all because the Chinese work hard towards a goal. They would have got to this point regardless of what NASA did or does.

And what rocket are you talking about anyway, STS or SLS.

Yes but an pure moon flyby is pretty pointless in it self, US did it but with Apollo hardware in preparation for the moon landing.

Doing it with hardware not designed for an future landing is a waste.

[Tommygun]

Have the Chinese said what approach they are going to use for a Moon landing?

Could a modded Shenzhou dock with a lander in Lunar orbit?

[Kryten]

They have no officially stated program, likely because they have no actual program.

[Camacha]

They have no officially stated program, likely because they have no actual program.

Why would you think that? That's a rather silly assumption.

[Kryten]

They announced the entire space station program as part of project 921 in the 90's, and all the planned phases of the uncrewed lunar exploration program well before Chang'e 1 launched. Pulling a major program out of the blue just doesn't fit.

[MoeKitsune]

Quick! someone make a Chinese manned moon lander in KSP!

[deadshot462]

Quick! someone make a Chinese manned moon lander in KSP!

It would probably look a lot like an LK lander, the majority of the Chinese tech is based on old Russian tech.

Based on the sample return mission, I believe China will follow a similar path to Apollo with two ships (orbiter and lander). The command module looks pretty much like a Shenzhou.