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Everything posted by SunlitZelkova

  1. I guess what I meant was that peaceful times can be interesting too. (snip) No one is saying climate change isn’t happening. I’m not a guy who works the oil fields and denies CC’s existence. I still think we should try to achieve carbon neutrality even if it comes at the expense of offing a fair portion of the fossil fuel industry sooner or later. But I don’t buy the doomerism. It was originally just skepticism at the alarmist views due to some philosophical positions and knowledge of how another scare tactic, that of nuclear winter, doesn’t have much ground to stand on. The recent articles @darthgently and @Hotel26 have raised some valid points about the accuracy of the models being used to predict future climate. Again, I’m not saying I don’t believe it will be warmer in the future, I am just skeptical of the apocalyptic effects it is supposedly going to have. (snip)
  2. I’ve been thinking about this post for awhile, and I don’t think the answer is so black and white. A lack of peace in the 1930s and 1940s propelled aviation and rocket research, but if things had been more peaceful in the 1960s, perhaps we could have gone to Mars in the 1980s. I’m also skeptical military research actually benefits civilian society nowadays. Recent news talks about how a good civilian economy is necessary for military innovation, not the other way around.
  3. One of my ideas for a techno thriller set in the 2050s is to have China have a SBSP demonstrator, and when war breaks out “someone” hacks it and points it at Taipei, wreaking havoc with communications and other electronics. IIRC the beam isn’t strong enough to hurt people usually though.
  4. http://spaceflighthistory.blogspot.com/2016/12/energy-from-space-department-of.html?m=1 It’s actually really feasible, especially with Starship coming online. Starship is basically just a scaled down version of the Space Freighter proposed by Boeing.
  5. One of my theories was that it is the year 3268 and every country has become a Soviet Socialist Republic. Those of us who are not bots are people placed in a false alternative world simulation where the USSR collapsed 1200 years ago as punishment for anti-Soviet activities.
  6. What I meant was mind uploading. From Wikipedia- Mind uploading is a speculative process of whole brain emulation in which a brain scan is used to completely emulate the mental state of the individual in a digital computer. The computer would then run a simulation of the brain's information processing, such that it would respond in essentially the same way as the original brain and experience having a sentient conscious mind.[1][2][3] Digital immortality (or "virtual immortality")[1] is the hypothetical concept of storing (or transferring) a person's personality in digital substrate, i.e., a computer, robot or cyberspace[2] (mind uploading). The result might look like an avatar behaving, reacting, and thinking like a person on the basis of that person's digital archive.[3][4][5][6] After the death of the individual, this avatar could remain static or continue to learn and self-improve autonomously (possibly becoming seed AI).
  7. The idea that an advanced AI could constitute a new lifeform is the same as the ancients believing the trees mountains and rocks were alive. Same goes for conscious uploading. EDIT- I am tired.
  8. The US launching the first satellite into space might have had major effects on world history. Historically, the launch of Sputnik caused a crisis within the US defence establishment, causing a rise in defence spending due to the “missile gap” scare. If the US launched the first satellite, there would probably be no missile gap crisis. This would result in reduced funding for the Atlas and Titan ICBM programs. In addition, there would probably be no Space Race, which was largely only feasible because of the fear Sputnik inspired in the West. Eisenhower grudgingly supported Project Mercury due to public pressure for a response to supposed Soviet success. However, that’s not say a man might never fly into space. The USAF and Army were exploring a sort of proto-Mercury program called Project Man Very High, and it might have gotten funding. But a major consequence of there being no missile gap scare is that the Cold War nuclear arms race might come to a conclusion much earlier than in our timeline. Historically the Sputnik scare caused the USAF to propose a force of 2,500 Minuteman ICBMs, while Congress demanded a force of 1,000. This in turn forced the USSR to undertaken its own massive missile buildup. Without Sputnik being first, this probably wouldn’t happen. Thus both the US and Soviet ICBM arsenals would remain frozen at about 200-300 missiles, which is what each side was contemplating prior to the Sputnik crisis. Another dire consequence of the US winning the satellite race would be that with no missile gap issue to help propel him to the Presidency, John F. Kennedy might barely lose the election to Nixon in 1960. A combination of no Kennedy and no race to put the first man in space which the Soviets win would likely mean there would never be a project Apollo. The notion that the US- or anybody for that matter- was not going to fly to the Moon until the late 20th century (1980s or 1990s) or even after 2000 might remain the prevailing view. I haven’t refreshed my knowledge of the early Soviet space programs recently, but I am pretty sure that no propaganda victory with the launch of the first satellite would mean Khrushchev would not fund further satellites or spacecraft after Sputnik 1. The military was very reluctant to allow Korolev to do that in the first place, and if it didn’t have propaganda value he wouldn’t have gotten more funding. At best, reconnaissance satellites might be built, but there would probably not be any extra money for a man in space like Vostok given Khrushchev’s desire to cut costs. On a much wider note, given that the nuclear arms race of the 60s is part of what doomed the USSR, that might change the entire history of the Cold War. Same with Nixon being president during the pivotal years of 1960-1965 too.
  9. Oh, so that’s why they had the tank in front of a nuclear blast in the artwork when they added the Centurian Mk. 5/1 to War Thunder…
  10. I think these people were expecting something with the same vibe as the original. It’s very different from the anime. But I agree. I watched the live action before the anime and I thought (and still think) it was great. I myself don’t really care if it takes liberties from the original.
  11. It would be the same regardless of if it is surface or orbital. Different studies have been undertaken but no one knows. The estimates range from 14 to 15,000.
  12. Now we need to test the Imperial family to see if they contain this particle, and we can prove if they are descended from the Sun Goddess herself.
  13. Western sources confirm successful launch https://x.com/titaniumsv5/status/1727199380808319203?s=46&t=Jd73T2beq0JLNtwTy1uR5A The satellite is called Malligyong-1. North Korea plans to launch several more and build a constellation. It is in sun synchronous orbit.
  14. North Korea has claimed it successfully put the satellite into orbit. No confirmation from other sources yet.
  15. 1. Would a different Space Shuttle design being selected allow a higher flight cadence? I’m specifically trying to see if it was ever possible for a Space Shuttle to launch once a week (different shuttles obviously). 2. What would the failure modes for an inertial confinement fusion engine look like? Could it ever explode, and would it be big? 3. Here’s a big one. What are the basic formulas I would need to know to do a very rough design of my own space mission?
  16. At about 11:00 PM JST, the interlinked South Korean-Japanese-American missile (and by extension, space launch) detection system observed a rocket lifting off from North Korea. It is highly likely this was the third satellite launch attempt due to it following the planned splash down areas given by the NK government. It is still unknown whether it was successful or not. The Japanese MOD has only said they can’t confirm if it is in orbit, and have remained silent since. Ionospheric readings showed a larger disturbance at the time of launch than before, probably indicating the second stage worked for at least some amount of time, says Dr. Jeffrey Lewis. (Not posting any links because they contain politics)
  17. Interestingly this concept doesn’t originate with Sagan. ”As a result of a thousand million years of evolution, the universe is becoming conscious of itself, able to understand something of its past history and its possible future. This cosmic self-awareness is being realized in one tiny fragment of the universe — in a few of us human beings. Perhaps it has been realized elsewhere too, through the evolution of conscious living creatures on the planets of other stars. But on this our planet, it has never happened before.” -Julian Huxley Julian Huxley was a biologist. He was basically the Carl Sagan of the 1940s and 50s, and was well known for his books, appearances on radio, and early TV. Among other titles, he was the first director of UNESCO. A major proponent of the theory of natural selection, he was knighted by the Queen 100 years after Darwin first revealed the theory. Unfortunately, he took his advocacy for the idea a little too far. He supported eugenics to some degree and believed lower class people were genetically inferior.
  18. There’s not a lot of research that can be done in 10 years from building the base. It’d be like going from Apollo 11 to a full fledged Moon colony in 1979. It seems like we would want to spend more time looking at the effects of living on another planet on human bodies before settling down there. Artificial gravity would eliminate that need, but Musk seems hell bent on surface colonization despite not knowing if it is feasible.
  19. Interestingly, oxygen extraction was the main theoretical ISRU target on the Moon prior to the confirmation of ice on the South Pole in the 2000s. I’m surprised, I thought it had been abandoned in favor using water.
  20. North Korea has notified Japan it will attempt to launch a satellite between Wednesday and December 1st. It should be noted they originally said the 3rd launch attempt would be in October. I wonder if it is possible Russian specialists have already arrived and provided some assistance as per the statements of the two leaders.
  21. I already listed some examples earlier. Now you can say “Well that’s just Elon time/talk”, but the fact remains he does say these things, regardless of whether they are realistic or likely or not.
  22. If you ever think you are useless, just think about the guy who signed off on the US Army’s estimate of North Korea’s nuclear weapons. “20-60” nuclear weapons is about as useful a figure as 10,000-30,000.
  23. Yeah, this is something I didn’t take into account. I know the average parent wouldn’t, but I would still be concerned about the odd apple out. Have they made detailed hypothetical designs of these “railways”? Not likely engineering document level, but just a simple conceptual design. I’d be curious to see them if there are.
  24. You are correct in that technically, society doesn't have to do anything. It can just be a way for analysts to group humans who live in the vicinity of each other and maybe say hi from time to time, but otherwise leave each other alone. But historically, society does indeed have a responsibility to protect children. This is why the whole concept of adulthood exists, because children below a certain age are not ready to do things on their own and need to be watched over by both the parents and tribe. Parents alone cannot be trusted, which is why things like Child Protective Services exist. No one under 18 can sign a waiver. Sending children to Mars would be unacceptable (see below for more explanation of this belief). As I mentioned earlier in this thread, SpaceX has said they want to skip a Mars research base and start right off the bat with a town on Mars. Given... certain aspects of human nature, this is going to result in pregnancies sooner rather than later. And yes, you can argue there will be a research base and plenty of study on how best to build a Mars city first, but that's only speculation. What we know is that SpaceX wants to build a Mars City as quick as possible to the point of proposing something as ludicrous as people living in the landed ships on the surface right off the bat. They said they wanted to catch Super Heavy with the tower equipped with "chopsticks". And they actually did it. I think I myself and anyone else who thinks SpaceX has the potential to be negligent in how they handle going about building their city are not unjustified in doing so. Why are you blowing this up to include space travel as whole? I said I didn't care if adults on research expeditions get blown up. Yes, that will continue to happen no matter what, and I don't believe there is a point in stopping just because of that. What worries me is colonization, which will entail moving people and their families, in all likelihood including children, to Mars. SpaceX is known for moving fast and breaking things, and that's fine with the lives of adults who sign waivers, but not for children, whether they launch from Earth and journey millions of miles or are born into a situation they had no choice in in a small habitat on Mars. Actually, I will back off on the children who on born on Mars. Just as it is simply nonsensical to use regulation to prevent people from being born into inhumane situations on Earth, that notion that allowing people to have children on Mars would constitute a negligence society needs to intervene in was wrong. However, I don't believe children should be allowed to be colonists insofar as there is a possibility of true negligence (negligence they could be held legally accountable for). I do think any Mars colony would involve sending families to Mars. They aren't going to just pick bachelors or 20 something year olds. They're going to want "millions" as they say, and they are going to need people with various different skills, some of which can only be gained after having lived enough of life to have had a family. I don't believe anyone would dump their family for living on Mars, and therefore would desire to bring them along. Musk doesn't really seem to like ethics, preferring efficiency, and I could see him allowing children to travel there. And then if the Mars hab explodes because of some defect brought about by a lack of care purposefully overlooked, the blood will be on our hands for having failed to prevent this. This would be as irresponsible as allowing children to participate in some exotic tourist attraction that is normally reserved for adults who can understand and sign a waiver. If Musk does indeed limit colonists to bachelors and 20 something year olds, neither without children, my concerns will be addressed. But there is no reason to believe that will be the case. I think he would value skills over demographic questions and just send whoever is willing*. Is there reason to believe Musk will send children to Mars as colonists? No, but as I said, we hold these discussions even if the scenario in question is purely hypothetical, just as we talk about the possibility of AI rising up and turning on humanity. *To illustrate this concern, let's say as part of making the city a backup for humanity, he wants to send five physicists to Mars. Maybe he finds one who is a bachelor, but if there are four others who say yes but want to bring their families, is he really going to say no?
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