Luxembourg Conquers the Universe!

[Mazon Del]

http://news.yahoo.com/luxembourg-just-announced-plan-mine-175200063.html

Apparently Luxembourg intends to partner with Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries to get early on into the asteroid mining game, a most interesting development indeed. It could possibly be the start of nations (especially small ones that have historically been importers of resources) to jump up and try to snag a piece of the asteroid pie.

Thoughts?

[Gaarst]

Luxembourg is a tax haven. I wouldn't be surprised if a bunch of companies about to move some serious cash around made it their HQ.

[fredinno]

9 minutes ago, Mazon Del said:

http://news.yahoo.com/luxembourg-just-announced-plan-mine-175200063.html

Apparently Luxembourg intends to partner with Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries to get early on into the asteroid mining game, a most interesting development indeed. It could possibly be the start of nations (especially small ones that have historically been importers of resources) to jump up and try to snag a piece of the asteroid pie.

Thoughts?

This might be a nice bonus for Planetary, but unless, say ESA gets on board, it's only going to help keep it exist until it can get enough money from Earth observation sats for Asteroid Mining.

[SuperFastJellyfish]

28 minutes ago, Mazon Del said:

http://news.yahoo.com/luxembourg-just-announced-plan-mine-175200063.html

Apparently Luxembourg intends to partner with Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries to get early on into the asteroid mining game, a most interesting development indeed. It could possibly be the start of nations (especially small ones that have historically been importers of resources) to jump up and try to snag a piece of the asteroid pie.

Thoughts?

Isn't this flawed?  If the supply of platinum is increased by a significant amount then the price will plummet.  (unless you're De Beers and hide the supply, of course).  I don't know the sweet spot of supply vs. demand, but this chart shows the total global platinum production in 2014 = ~160 tons.

Have they released any numbers on what kind of yield they expect to mine per trip?

[Mazon Del]

The forward thinking item at hand is not so much that they will be able to flood the immediate market with platinum and other precious metals (though the first asteroid company to do that will have a nice windfall), and its more the longer term idea that they will always have these resources available in the future and one day that will have value. A lot of Europe sort of realized that cheaply trading away land to the US of a size greater than their continent was a bit....foolish, and so some of the long term thinkers see asteroid claiming as a way to keep from being left out of the resource game in the future. IE: Just because all that land is undeveloped and worthless for your economy RIGHT NOW, doesn't mean it won't be hyper valuable in the future.

[HebaruSan]

Historically, raw materials export is the domain of developing countries, whereas advanced industrialized countries make the big bucks from more complex outputs (cars, electronics, medical equipment, etc.). I wouldn't expect Luxembourg to just dump platinum on the commodities market, when with a little foresight they could ramp up a variety of platinum processing industries instead.

[Findthepin1]

I don't think they'll be able to do this. They won't be able to get the product to Earth in a way that lets them profit. It's much more profitable to keep the wealth in space. Platinum is heavy. It will probably cost more to get it to the ground than the metal is actually worth.

Better to build fuel stations on asteroids and mine the water. Heavy water too, if we can get to it. I mean, it's a ball of resources in a place where those resources are needed. Why move it to a place where the resources are only wanted?. Wait 100 years in the latter scenario and platinum is gonna be cheaper than peanuts in space. Because it's not necessarily needed. Water is going to be much, much more important than valuable minerals when we start being significantly in space. Ships will need it for drinking, and to grow crops, and for fuel, and for radiation protection, and for experiments, etc. You get the idea

[Mazon Del]

Nominally I agree with you Findthepin1, but the trick is that right now, those metals COULD (depending on your drive tech) be worth it to bring back. The moment you have 1-5 groups capable of flooding the market is when it makes sense to either just sit tight, or develop your resources out there for processing and expansion.

[mikegarrison]

Mining asteroids has always been more of an SF staple than a real business prospect. But what happens if somebody invents a room temperature superconductor using iridium, or some similar thing? Essentially all the iridium on the Earth is in the center of the core. If we want it in any quantity, we need to get it from asteroids. So there are potential possibilities.

[ChrisSpace]

My face when I saw the thread title...

[kerbiloid]

In the best traditions of space opera: Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, Fomalhaut and minor stars.
The "Imperial March" would sound here...

[Streetwind]

4 hours ago, Findthepin1 said:

I don't think they'll be able to do this. They won't be able to get the product to Earth in a way that lets them profit. It's much more profitable to keep the wealth in space. Platinum is heavy. It will probably cost more to get it to the ground than the metal is actually worth.

There are plans to get the stuff down very cheaply. They are all theoretical at this point, with no realworld tests performed, but physics should allow it. One such plan, for instance, is turning the metal into some form of aerogel- or wool-like structure. Basically a small mass blown up to a huge volume. This would then be given a deorbit nudge. Due to the giant area versus almost no mass, the object would not experience any significant shock heating and would survive reentry unharmed. It would also not pose any significant threat towards stuff on the ground, because its terminal velocity will be very low. Then it would just need to be collected where it came down.

Yes, there are problems left to solve with this idea But the point is, physics allows it to be done. As long as you solve the problem of how to properly aim it at wherever you want it to go, this would be a practically free method of transport from orbit to Earth (beyond the initial investment of launching an orbital facility capable of producing the aerogel).

However, the mining companies do realize what you said, that it's better to start with water ice. Both Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries plan to do exactly that in the beginning. They talk about the platinum group metals because it's more exciting than boring old water ice to the broad public, but they both did their homework on what can be realistically achieved in the next 5-10 years.

[magnemoe]

11 hours ago, Mazon Del said:

The forward thinking item at hand is not so much that they will be able to flood the immediate market with platinum and other precious metals (though the first asteroid company to do that will have a nice windfall), and its more the longer term idea that they will always have these resources available in the future and one day that will have value. A lot of Europe sort of realized that cheaply trading away land to the US of a size greater than their continent was a bit....foolish, and so some of the long term thinkers see asteroid claiming as a way to keep from being left out of the resource game in the future. IE: Just because all that land is undeveloped and worthless for your economy RIGHT NOW, doesn't mean it won't be hyper valuable in the future.

Platinum is an useful metal for lots of uses, if it was cheaper it would be used more. No they would not get current price for it but it would still be valuable. 
Note that this does not apply for all minerals, many expensive rare earths are of limited use so price will collapse if you increased the production many times.


 

[wumpus]

Any explanation on how they are going to do the mining?  My assumption would be that the first "mined asteroids" would be to find an asteroid with a lot of platinum (or something else that would *still* be valuable if you had an asteroid's worth) and drag the thing (warning: Rosetta-Plilae's "grabber" didn't work.  It's harder than it looks) back via ion-thrusters.  De-orbit the thing with a semi-controlled area on Earth (guessing where an asteroid hits won't be easy, just don't do it anywhere inhabited).  Then go collect your platinum.

The big problem with this approach is that Luxembourg is one of the last countries in the world to make such a strategy work.  Sure, there are the oceans, but all that means is that anyone else who gets to "your" asteroid can claim them under maritime law as salvage.  Your best countries to claim an asteroid would be Australia, Canada, Russia with countries along the Sahara also a good bet (assuming you could hit one of the countries you have claims with and that they could keep other claim jumpers from getting to "your" asteroid first).

It might make great PR copy, but I don't see any advantage to file a claim with Luxembourg.  You need mostly uninhabited  spaces and fairly significant law enforcement, these are things that historically don't go well with each other.

[fredinno]

12 hours ago, mikegarrison said:

Mining asteroids has always been more of an SF staple than a real business prospect. But what happens if somebody invents a room temperature superconductor using iridium, or some similar thing? Essentially all the iridium on the Earth is in the center of the core. If we want it in any quantity, we need to get it from asteroids. So there are potential possibilities.

Like Hyrdrogen-absorbing palladium?

33 minutes ago, wumpus said:

Any explanation on how they are going to do the mining?  My assumption would be that the first "mined asteroids" would be to find an asteroid with a lot of platinum (or something else that would *still* be valuable if you had an asteroid's worth) and drag the thing (warning: Rosetta-Plilae's "grabber" didn't work.  It's harder than it looks) back via ion-thrusters.  De-orbit the thing with a semi-controlled area on Earth (guessing where an asteroid hits won't be easy, just don't do it anywhere inhabited).  Then go collect your platinum.

The big problem with this approach is that Luxembourg is one of the last countries in the world to make such a strategy work.  Sure, there are the oceans, but all that means is that anyone else who gets to "your" asteroid can claim them under maritime law as salvage.  Your best countries to claim an asteroid would be Australia, Canada, Russia with countries along the Sahara also a good bet (assuming you could hit one of the countries you have claims with and that they could keep other claim jumpers from getting to "your" asteroid first).

It might make great PR copy, but I don't see any advantage to file a claim with Luxembourg.  You need mostly uninhabited  spaces and fairly significant law enforcement, these are things that historically don't go well with each other.

Why would you deorbit it? That would cause mass hysteria, and you'd lose a lot of your material during reentry too.

[StrandedonEarth]

If platinum was cheap and widely available, it would do wonders for fuel cell prices and market penetration, and be a big help in moving the world towards a hydrogen economy

[wumpus]

3 hours ago, fredinno said:

Why would you deorbit it? That would cause mass hysteria, and you'd lose a lot of your material during reentry too.

Because mass in space is cheap, and platinum on Earth is not.  Not sure what to do about mass hysteria.  Not even sure if there is any way to be sure you could hit something the size of the Australian outback.  Maybe try the bits of the Indian Ocean MH370 was lost in (presumably low on ships as well as other populations), or even the Indian Ocean well under the equator (probably too deep to dig the rocks out).

I'm assuming the whole point of asteroid mining is to get rare stuff to Earth, which means *something* gets de-orbited, and putting it inside a spacecraft means huge costs in getting the spacecraft up (consider the shuttle...).  The second most common would probably just grabbing some mass for shielding, and finally some sort of fuel grab (presumably water for cracking.  But methane should be out there).

I wonder if you could smelt an asteroid in place (presumably using rotation to separate densities) and then wind up with a perfect sphere?  That might be something you could easily calculate de-orbiting landing zones (although not to Luxembourg-level of accuracy).

1 hour ago, StrandedonEarth said:

If platinum was cheap and widely available, it would do wonders for fuel cell prices and market penetration, and be a big help in moving the world towards a hydrogen economy

Does platinum crack water as well, or at least help crack methane better?  I'm a big basher of "hydrogen economy" ideas, but would have to re-evaluate the idea from start to finish if such an important catalyst as platinum was suddenly cheap.

[Stargate525]

Most of the most expensive metals are a combination of low supply AND high demand. If stuff like Platinum and Gold were much more common for industrial uses, I imagine the price point would stabilize around the more expensive industrial metals.

[Mazon Del]

For Wumpus:

As to "how they do the mining" one of the common threads has been to wrap your asteroid in a tarp with a station on one end that sort of grinds up the asteroid and splits it up into useful and nonuseful piles. Part of the reason for doing it this way is that with the asteroid covered in your "tarp" there is no way someone can mine the asteroid without damaging your property. While you cannot legally claim an asteroid as yours in an international court of law, damaging another businesses property is sort of the bread and butter of international courts.

[fredinno]

3 hours ago, wumpus said:

Because mass in space is cheap, and platinum on Earth is not.  Not sure what to do about mass hysteria.  Not even sure if there is any way to be sure you could hit something the size of the Australian outback.  Maybe try the bits of the Indian Ocean MH370 was lost in (presumably low on ships as well as other populations), or even the Indian Ocean well under the equator (probably too deep to dig the rocks out).

I'm assuming the whole point of asteroid mining is to get rare stuff to Earth, which means *something* gets de-orbited, and putting it inside a spacecraft means huge costs in getting the spacecraft up (consider the shuttle...).  The second most common would probably just grabbing some mass for shielding, and finally some sort of fuel grab (presumably water for cracking.  But methane should be out there).

I wonder if you could smelt an asteroid in place (presumably using rotation to separate densities) and then wind up with a perfect sphere?  That might be something you could easily calculate de-orbiting landing zones (although not to Luxembourg-level of accuracy).

Does platinum crack water as well, or at least help crack methane better?  I'm a big basher of "hydrogen economy" ideas, but would have to re-evaluate the idea from start to finish if such an important catalyst as platinum was suddenly cheap.

1. Mining asteroids is pointless if you can't convince lawmakers to let you get the stuff back down, and deorbiting an asteroid is the worst way to do that. If you think they'll let that happen, you have too much hope. Even RTGs get people rallied up.

2. Trying to build your own spaceship in orbit is kind of a bad idea, and would likely make asteroid mining uneconomical. The only politically and financially acceptable option would be making a "Shuttle" to bring stuff to and from orbit- derived off the space shutttle, and using a SLS-derived rocket to get up into space. The Space Shuttle could carry 15T back to Earth, btw. 

On a more realistic, near-term outlook, you'd use a X-37A, modified for returning partially-processed rock from space (X-37B is a military vehicle).You'd likely only be able to carry 1-2T back to Earth in that thing, but thankfully, X-37B is 5 T in mass, so you can use a much smaller rocket to launch it. But that's probably enough for during the first decade or so of operation. 

Potentially, you could use a capsule, like Dragon, but you'd have to crush everything into a fine powder to fit inside- which may still be cheaper to use.

3. Again, deorbiting is political suicide.

4. It's actually palladium, which is very similar to platinum. And I'm fairly certain it wouldn't crack water.

[DBowman]

23 hours ago, SuperFastJellyfish said:

Isn't this flawed?  If the supply of platinum is increased by a significant amount then the price will plummet.

I listened to a Radio Lab podcast the other day. I cannot recall they guys name (maybe an X Prize founder) but this was his (tongue in cheek?) plan:

1. short the platinum market / futures
2. announce his detailed and credible plans to bring large quantities of Platinum from a particular asteroid
3. platinum prices / futures crash in anticipation of imminent massive over supply
4. Profit - unwind the short position
5. (optional?) use the profits to fund the asteroid mining operation

[Mazon Del]

Hah! That is pretty brilliant.

[Stargate525]

1 hour ago, Mazon Del said:

Hah! That is pretty brilliant.

If by 'brilliant' you mean 'market manipulation and insider trading,' then you're correct. It's also a federal offense and liable to get your assets frozen and your butt in jail for many many decades. 

[kerbiloid]

Why to deorbit the asteroid at all?
If you own, say, platinum ingots, you would keep them in a high-protected bank storage.
Probably, it's not much easier to steal those ingots from the bank dungeon than from an asteroid.
Also, you would never see these ingots, you would just know that they exist and belong to you according to bank papers.

Bingo!
They can treat the asteroid as a "remote treasure storage facility", which belongs to a bank, and platinum inclusions as "natural deposits of precious metals".
So, there is no need neither to deorbit, nor even to extract these platinoids - just juridically legalize the aforesaid asteroid as a bank storage unit.

[magnemoe]

7 hours ago, Stargate525 said:

If by 'brilliant' you mean 'market manipulation and insider trading,' then you're correct. It's also a federal offense and liable to get your assets frozen and your butt in jail for many many decades. 

To set out rumors to change raw material prices are not illegal as i understand, various state leaders do this all the time. 
Opec is created to manipulate the oil price. 

Its illegal to use confidential information to buy stocks. Say you work in an company who have economical problems but get an huge contract, You can not use this information to buy stocks in company.