AN-225 destroyed?!

[Lisias]

2 hours ago, DDE said:

Of a fire. Which does not necessarily indicate where the initial explosion was.

Good catch.

[snip]

 

2 hours ago, DDE said:

Other options for a precise strike on the wingbox are exceedingly unlikely.

'Lucky' strikes do exist, sir. I never said the missile was targeting the wingbox, only that I though it had hit it.

 

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by Snark
Redacted by moderator

[Snark]

Various content has been redacted and/or removed.

Please do not post any of the following:

• Any even remotely political content.  This includes, for example, any discussion of who did what, or why.  Yes, this is a very broad definition, with good reason.  This includes linking to political content.
• Any content that is not in English.  There's an international subforum for content in other languages.  Here, only English is allowed.  This includes linking to content that's not in English, such as videos and Twitter posts.

If you want to talk about the destruction of the plane itself, that's fine.  Discuss the damage patterns, which parts were or weren't damaged and how much, fine.  Your hopes that another one will be built someday, your fond reminiscences of seeing it (or regrets of not having seen it), a discussion of the economics of very large aircraft, all of that kind of stuff is fine.

But as soon as you touch on the reasons for what happened, or who did it, or why, then you are immediately on very thin ice.  So please don't go there.  We understand that's difficult, in a situation like this, but please try; the only other alternative would be to simply close the topic altogether.  There are good reasons, based on years of experience, why that sort of thing can't be discussed here in the KSP forums.

Thank you for your understanding.

[Scotius]

Yup. Mrija's gone. Total construction loss probably.

Edited March 4, 2022 by Scotius
Forum rules.

[Lisias]

As it appears, I was wrong about the nosecone being "popped" out by an explosion.

It looks it just fell from its place, probably by the structure where it was attached being melted by fire.

(uh, somewhat strong image for aviation lovers on the spoiler)

Spoiler

 

I don't know why the nosecone survived the heat. I suspect the missile used was an incendiary, not an explosive one. The front landing gears appears to be there too (obviously, without the rubber). So the floor structure appears to had survived too. And, so, the main landing gears should had also - and these two facts explains why the tail looks fine and on the right place and attitude on the pictures on the previous page).

So the missing metal sheet from the hangar's roof were due the rapid expansion of the air while the incendiary ogive started to burn - less intense than an exploding ogive, but intense enough to make sheets of steel to detach the roof's structure and fly away.

With the (her) left wing intact and most of the main fuselage too, I think there's enough parts salvageable to help a bit building a new AN-225 using the sister hull. Not a big consolation, I admit. But something - better than nothing.

[sgt_flyer]

17 minutes ago, Lisias said:

As it appears, I was wrong about the nosecone being "popped" out by an explosion.

It looks it just fell from its place, probably by the structure where it was attached being melted by fire.

(uh, somewhat strong image for aviation lovers on the spoiler)

  Hide contents

 

I don't know why the nosecone survived the heat. I suspect the missile used was an incendiary, not an explosive one. The front landing gears appears to be there too (obviously, without the rubber). So the floor structure appears to had survived too. And, so, the main landing gears should had also - and these two facts explains why the tail looks fine and on the right place and attitude on the pictures on the previous page).

So the missing metal sheet from the hangar's roof were due the rapid expansion of the air while the incendiary ogive started to burn - less intense than an exploding ogive, but intense enough to make sheets of steel to detach the roof's structure and fly away.

With the (her) left wing intact and most of the main fuselage too, I think there's enough parts salvageable to help a bit building a new AN-225 using the sister hull. Not a big consolation, I admit. But something - better than nothing.

With the front right of the wingbox / forward aircraft spine damaged, the forward fuselage / cockpit collapsed on itself (especially if fire weakened further the structure). with the spine damaged, the nosecone locking system was likely not enough to preserve the fuselage rigidity (they might not even be locked if the aircraft was undergoing servicing)

the aircraft Aft section fared better, as the spine was not damaged on this side of the wingbox, and there's no rear ramp on the AN-225 to compromise rear rigidity.

 AN-124s have the rear ramp

i've read somewhere that the planned a conventional tail for the second 225 (similar to the 124 tails), combined with a rear ramp to achieve rollon / roloff of cargo. (The split tail was for limiting the effect of turbulences from external payloads) on the tail) 

As for the fire, there seems to be very limited charring (even on the right wing),  there was no fuel to further the fire from the ordinance initial explosion. (Fuel tanks were likely fully drained as they removed several engines for maintenance)

[StrandedonEarth]

2 hours ago, Scotius said:

Yup. Mrija's gone. Total construction loss probably.

*insert “It’s dead, Jim” meme here*. (On mobile or I’d do it myself)

Now that’s a damn shame. 

Edited March 4, 2022 by StrandedonEarth

[steve9728]

The most thing I have learn from study aborad in UK is "Always look on the brightside of life" (shrug*). At least, the 2 or 3 engine at AN-225 left wing are not destroy (the 2 of the ouside even been covered). So at least it can be used on AN-124.

"Money isn't everything but without money you have nothing", same as Ukraine. Put all political ideas aside, when the war is over and the government was clutching limited funds, their primary goal was bound to be urban infrastructure reconstruction. As for the rebuild of AN-225, well, I think maybe only happened in everyone's dreams. 

Thank you Мрія. Thank you for holding up the mankind's dream of space, for your 33 years of service, and for the vast amount of supplies you brought to countries all around the world during the epidemic. Go and reunite with your beloved Буран. Farewell

One of my favourite painter on Weibo do a paint and said:

She light the first match and saw her lost country.
She light the second match and saw the great ideals.
She light the third match and saw the pioneers of the space industry in her country with their ideals.
She light the fourth match and saw the long-lost Buran.
She was afraid that if the match went out, all these dreamy things would disappear.
So she light a whole match to keep them with her.
She died with a smile on her face.
No one knows what she saw in her last moments of life.

Edited March 4, 2022 by steve9728

[Beccab]

 

[Lisias]

1 hour ago, steve9728 said:

As for the rebuild of AN-225, well, I think maybe only happened in everyone's dreams. 

The last information I had is that the second hull was about 70% complete, and about 460M USD were needed to complete the remaining 30% (the most expensive part are engine, avionics et all).

At that time, it was not economically viable to invest such money, as there was not enough demand in the World for two AN-225.

Mriya is gone now, but the demand is still there.

Right now, I think it's unlikely that the second hull would be completed anytime soon, but it's not a pipe dream to have it eventually built neither.

[steve9728]

24 minutes ago, Lisias said:

The last information I had is that the second hull was about 70% complete, and about 460M USD were needed to complete the remaining 30% (the most expensive part are engine, avionics et all).

At that time, it was not economically viable to invest such money, as there was not enough demand in the World for two AN-225.

Mriya is gone now, but the demand is still there.

Right now, I think it's unlikely that the second hull would be completed anytime soon, but it's not a pipe dream to have it eventually built neither.

With the technology available it would be no problem at all to rebuild, or even produce a few more AN-225. But think about both side of Russia and Ukraine. With absolutely no offence, I'm not optimistic about this given their actual financial means.

China? Well, AN-225 for some reason can be think as 'AN-124 PRO'. The existing Chinese national strategy is not at all compatible with a transport aircraft in the class of the AN-124 or the C-5: we have no need for global deployment. As a rational consumer, would you buy an iPhone 13 pro max when you don't even have the need to buy an iPhone 13 pro at all?

[DDE]

1 hour ago, steve9728 said:

With the technology available it would be no problem at all to rebuild, or even produce a few more AN-225. But think about both side of Russia and Ukraine. With absolutely no offence, I'm not optimistic about this given their actual financial means.

China? Well, AN-225 for some reason can be think as 'AN-124 PRO'. The existing Chinese national strategy is not at all compatible with a transport aircraft in the class of the AN-124 or the C-5: we have no need for global deployment. As a rational consumer, would you buy an iPhone 13 pro max when you don't even have the need to buy an iPhone 13 pro at all?

The various Russian studies for an An-124 substitute over the years (Slon, Yermak/PAK TA) have also focused on modest payload increases. Heck, the Il-106 is supposed to clock in at barely above 250 tons loaded; you would be able to stuff it into a Mriya with a payload margin to spare. The most I've seen are attempts to make it two vehicles wide along the entire length via a flattened fuselage.

So An-225 was really a freak of the Shuttle age. The only thing that came close were the Gerakl concept studies that Molniya was throwing at the wall during the 1990s

and that once again was a repurposed spaceplane lofter. Possibly an in-house alternative to the Tupolev-Antonov design with a Mriya-Zwilling (AKS).

And, as with Starship (as if this comment needed more canards after the Gerakl), there's a serious problem that people will quickly learn to get by with small payloads that don't merit an oversized transport. Deliveries of humanitarian aid on one-off megatransports always struck me as particularly superfluous.

Edited March 4, 2022 by DDE

[sgt_flyer]

34 minutes ago, DDE said:

The various Russian studies for an An-124 substitute over the years (Slon, Yermak/PAK TA) have also focused on modest payload increases. Heck, the Il-106 is supposed to clock in at barely above 250 tons loaded; you would be able to stuff it into a Mriya with a payload margin to spare. The most I've seen are attempts to make it two vehicles wide along the entire length via a flattened fuselage.

So An-225 was really a freak of the Shuttle age. The only thing that came close were the Gerakl concept studies that Molniya was throwing at the wall during the 1990s

and that once again was a repurposed spaceplane lofter. Possibly an in-house alternative to the Tupolev-Antonov design with a Mriya-Zwilling (AKS).

And, as with Starship (as if this comment needed more canards after the Gerakl), there's a serious problem that people will quickly learn to get by with small payloads that don't merit an oversized transport. Deliveries of humanitarian aid on one-off megatransports always struck me as particularly superfluous.

When looking at Gerakl concept, looks like that's where  stratolaunch's inspiration came from  (minus the forward canards)

as far as crazy arrangements with canards, i think the be-2500 concept still as it beaten - with jet engines above the forward canards ^^

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by sgt_flyer

[Abel Military Services]

How could this happen! 

Long live the king. 

[Snark]

Some content has been removed.  Please do not post political content, even in jest. Thank you.

[MKI]

On 3/4/2022 at 10:31 AM, Lisias said:

Mriya is gone now, but the demand is still there.

I'm too lazy to go through all the previous posts so forgive me if this was already brought up.

 

Without the AN-225 available for the foreseeable future, assuming someone does build a replacement/alternative, what sort of demand was there previously? 

From what I know of its history the AN-225 was brought out of essentially abandonment due to the need for what is essentially the "ultimately huge transport plane". 

Like if there was a lot of demand, was it in the realm that you could technically re-design a plane with a bunch of changes/enhancements to make it better/more-economical and actually be useful? Or was it more like bigger = better and having only 1 plane available covered enough market share its worth it?

 

Also props to the mod team for keeping this topic open even though its essentially a "minefield topic" in regards to the nature of its destruction.

I always found the AN-225 to be one of the most interesting planes ever made and this forum an excellent place to talk about such topics, so I really appreciate it staying open to talk about the plane itself

 

 

[Kerbart]

37 minutes ago, MKI said:

Like if there was a lot of demand, was it in the realm that you could technically re-design a plane with a bunch of changes/enhancements to make it better/more-economical and actually be useful? Or was it more like bigger = better and having only 1 plane available covered enough market share its worth it?

I'd say induced demand. The plane is there and available, so if you have a 150 ton generator or oversized objects like wind turbine blades you can ship them intercontinental without having to deal with hundreds of miles of special transport from a sea port to the origin and/or destination. So that opens up markets for buyers/sellers that otherwise wouldn't exist as they'd shop/sell "locally" to avoid those kind of logistical challenges.

With the plane gone I doubt that market is going to be there, definitely not for the prices that were there in the past (based on a plane that effectively was already paid for), as a rebuilt specimen would be far more expensive. to build an assett like that and recover he cost of building you'd have to fly it as much as possible, and given that it was sitting in a hangar suggests that the market for that simply doesn't exist.

[DDE]

18 minutes ago, Kerbart said:

I'd say induced demand. The plane is there and available, so if you have a 150 ton generator or oversized objects like wind turbine blades you can ship them intercontinental without having to deal with hundreds of miles of special transport from a sea port to the origin and/or destination. So that opens up markets for buyers/sellers that otherwise wouldn't exist as they'd shop/sell "locally" to avoid those kind of logistical challenges.

With the plane gone I doubt that market is going to be there, definitely not for the prices that were there in the past (based on a plane that effectively was already paid for), as a rebuilt specimen would be far more expensive. to build an assett like that and recover he cost of building you'd have to fly it as much as possible, and given that it was sitting in a hangar suggests that the market for that simply doesn't exist.

If anything this might finally bring back freight zeppelins, the hype of the 2000s.

[Lisias]

1 hour ago, MKI said:

Without the AN-225 available for the foreseeable future, assuming someone does build a replacement/alternative, what sort of demand was there previously? 

Well… It's hers the records of the biggest cargo load and the biggest single item load: ~560K pounds and ~420K pounds (250 and 190 Metric Tons). The range for a 200 tons payload is about 4.000 KM (but can ferry up to 15.400KM!!!)

So, if you have many cargo itens weighting 250 tons, now you will need to hire smaller planes to do the job.

The biggest planes after Mriya are, in order:

• Super Guppy - 24 tons, 2300 KM range
• C-5 Galaxy - military, not available
• Boeing DreamLifter - 184 tons, 7800 KM range
• AN-124 - 165 tons, 3700 KM range

Source: https://www.popularmechanics.com/flight/g17805179/worlds-biggest-planes/

Supper Guppy is big, but carries light cargo only. C-5 is military.

So we have DreamLifter and AN-124 to do the job. But none of them can carry a 190 ton cargo, so anyone in need to transport such an huge cargo will need to do it by ship - what can be a problem if the destination is way inland. Anyone on need to ship "door to door" this kind of cargo is screwed, there's nothing today that can do such a job. This poor stand-up guy will hire a ship, will deal with port loading/unloading, the huge time needed to travel from port to port - and still will need to find a way to transport that huge cargo from manufacture to port, and from port to destination. The costs piles up, I don't know even were to start to calculate them…  

For the jobs that still can be done, you will need to split your cargo on smaller planes. You will need to hire two Dreamlifters, or two AN-124 .

The cost per hour of the DreamLifter and AN-225 is/was about 30KUSD/hour. Didn't found easily the price for the AN-124, but it should be near it.

SO… Now you will pay TWICE the price you would pay before to transport 250 tons of cargo. And this is for the plane only - you will need to pay for airport services, for airspace crossing fees, everything - all in double.

I had read that it's usual the total cost for operating an AN-225 flight was ~1M USD. Well, assuming you can split your cargo, you now will pay 2M USD for the same job.

Edited March 5, 2022 by Lisias
tyop! Surprised?

[Minmus Taster]

On 3/4/2022 at 12:32 PM, Beccab said:

 

Another dream dead in it's hanger, were in tragic shortage of those these days sadly 

[steve9728]

Actually the reason why the two pictures I posted earlier, one is the AN-124 transporting metro train and the other one is AN-225 transporting light rial trains, it was because at that time the delivery time would not have been met if the traditional means of transport had been used: by ship. We still got several AN-124 now. So they can met the needs if those cargo are not bigger than the metro trains. Otherwise, well, time control is crucial buddy

[Lisias]

There's one more reason that may help raise interest on bringing the Mriya's sister hull into operations: the current global shipment logistics are a mess.

Lots of cargo ships were decommissioned and dismantled on the pandemics, many logistics operators gone bankrupt.  Some industrial and commercials supply chains are operational nowadays only due aerial transportation - expensive, but better than break the chain.

There're significant repressed demand for logistics already, and any special cargo demand is competing with the rest of the World for the available options. Any cargo that could only be transportated by Mriya (by weight or by volume) may not be econonimically viable by multi-modal nowadays.

Raising the funds and securing manufacturing installations for the sister hull will be a hell of a challenge in the next years. But so is being the rebuilding of the World's logistics to the pre-pandemics level.

It's weird, but I think there're better chances of building Mriya's sister now than if Mriya had crashed before the pandemics.

Edited March 6, 2022 by Lisias
Some entertaining grammars made less entertaining.

[Nuke]

im sure there are a lot of salvagable components there. some of the engines look intact. almost the whole left wing looks salvagable as well as the landing gear. if you did finish the second fuselage having access to those salvage parts would lower the costs. 

 

[Lisias]

2 hours ago, Nuke said:

im sure there are a lot of salvagable components there. some of the engines look intact. almost the whole left wing looks salvagable as well as the landing gear. if you did finish the second fuselage having access to those salvage parts would lower the costs. 

Yep. These are some pictures of the sister fuselage I found on the web:

Source: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/worlds-biggest-plane-finally-finished-17654724

Source: Google Image Search.

There's still a lot to be done, but there's also a lot already done. I found somewhere on the net that 70% of the works is made, but that completing the remaining 30% can cost near 500M USD .

The surviving parts of Mriya may help to mitigate a bit that cost - some hydraulics, engines, all the rear fuselage thingies.

The Cockpit and avionics are pretty expensive, however - and these ones are a complete loss on Mriya.

[mikegarrison]

On 3/5/2022 at 12:46 PM, Lisias said:

So we have DreamLifter and AN-124 to do the job

The Boeing Dreamlifter has a restricted certification that only allows it to be used for the purpose of Boeing Company manufacturing. It says that right on the FAA TCDS.

Quote

Allowable Cargo: These airplanes are not approved for commercial freight hauling operations of material other than that approved per Exemptions 8769, 8769A and 8769B. Only cargo that supports Boeing corporate lines of business is allowed for carriage. All items intended for carriage must conform to the standards found in Document D926U013-44, “747-400 LCF Flammability Acceptance Criteria for Cargo Carriage,” or be accepted by the FAA once a safe method of transport has been established. A summary of all items allowed for carriage is identified in Document D451U742-01, “Allowable Cargo – 747-400 Large Cargo Freighter.” Document D451U742-01 is considered part of the Weight and Balance Manual/Airplane Flight Manual. In addition, a listing of the FAA-approved shipping mechanical equipment (SME) fixtures that are approved for installation on the 747-400 LCF aircraft are contained in the Weight and Balance Control and Loading Manual (Document D043U545-BHC1).

 

Edited March 7, 2022 by mikegarrison

[Nuke]

planes like the dreamlifter prioritize volume over weight. it can only carry 125 tons, close to the capacity of the c5 galaxy. the an124 can do 150.  the beluga xl has the largest volume but can only carry 55 tons. 

i was watching a video about iter and they had a clip of the an225 delivering some large coils and other components. i hope the loss of this plane doesn't impact the fusion timeline much.