ABL Space Systems Thread

[darthgently]

Just now, AckSed said:

I believe that valuation of a company is not wholly rational. It is both a prediction - "This company is worth this much because it will produce this much." - and a gamble: "If you buy shares, you will gain a return on investment." It may be based on data, even good data, but there's always something that is overlooked in any prediction.

Well put, but I don’t see much functional difference between what you and I wrote other than I might be assuming more rational actors.  But typically the more skin in the game the higher the degree of rationality striven for.  So just as betting markets have uncanny predictive ability, so does the valuation process, to an decent degree

Just now, AckSed said:

I believe that valuation of a company is not wholly rational. It is both a prediction - "This company is worth this much because it will produce this much." - and a gamble: "If you buy shares, you will gain a return on investment." It may be based on data, even good data, but there's always something that is overlooked in any prediction.

Well put, but I don’t see much functional difference between what you and I wrote other than I might be assuming more rational actors.  But typically the more skin in the game the higher the degree of rationality striven for.  So just as betting markets have uncanny predictive ability, so does the valuation process, to a decent degree

[magnemoe]

4 hours ago, AckSed said:

I believe that valuation of a company is not wholly rational. It is both a prediction - "This company is worth this much because it will produce this much." - and a gamble: "If you buy shares, you will gain a return on investment." It may be based on data, even good data, but there's always something that is overlooked in any prediction.

This, a breakthrough company will probably be worth trillions in some years if they create easy fusion or radical life extension will be overvalues because they might become very valuable down the line. 
And it never have to produce anything to be valuable for investors, you buy in early and sell then stock is more expensive for an huge profit. 
An safe bet like an company with an reliable profit every year is more boring but safer but its not much growth potential. 
Obviously being profitable with the potential to become  many order of magnitude more valuable is better. 
 

[darthgently]

I’m going to put this here given the recent posts about < 1t payload market and ABL self-deleting.
 

After watching the recent Kessler syndrome vid from Sabine it occurs to me that a rather large niche for < 1t payload launch market could exist for targeting specific dead objects in orbit for controlled deorbit.  The market would almost have to be a government or cooperating governments to deal with the problem.  That or the owners of the junk are held accountable for deorbiting it and they pay for its removal.

Alternatively, what if every sat launched was equipped with the ability and resources to bring back some junk with it when it was deorbited at end of life.  Starlinks, just in sheer numbers and short 5 year lifespan, could clear the junk out of their shells fairly well and fairly quickly I’d think.  I imagine this being covered under contract from an international consortium of junk owners and governments

 

[magnemoe]

9 hours ago, darthgently said:

I’m going to put this here given the recent posts about < 1t payload market and ABL self-deleting.
 

After watching the recent Kessler syndrome vid from Sabine it occurs to me that a rather large niche for < 1t payload launch market could exist for targeting specific dead objects in orbit for controlled deorbit.  The market would almost have to be a government or cooperating governments to deal with the problem.  That or the owners of the junk are held accountable for deorbiting it and they pay for its removal.

Alternatively, what if every sat launched was equipped with the ability and resources to bring back some junk with it when it was deorbited at end of life.  Starlinks, just in sheer numbers and short 5 year lifespan, could clear the junk out of their shells fairly well and fairly quickly I’d think.  I imagine this being covered under contract from an international consortium of junk owners and governments

 

In low orbit drag clear this pretty fast. In high orbit this is slow however, and here its real dangerous, geo in particular. 
Nightmare scenario is an upper stage doing GTO injection then raises Pe to help a bit more and blow up.