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majo339

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Everything posted by majo339

  1. Yes it is, thank you. So to make it 100% sure: MTBF(t) = MTBF(0)*e^(-t/LifeTime). Correct? A second question relates to my hitherto experience with the mod: 1st launch: one of the 15 fuel tanks (MTBF=350400h, LifeTime=131400h) breakes within the first 5 minutes of flight 2nd launch: one of the four wheel tires (MTBF=350400h, LifeTime=131400h) breakes within first 10 hours of flight just a minute ago: one of the two batteries (MTBF=175200h, LifeTime=87600h) has gone short-circuited after 12h of mission According to your intuition and your intentions while programming this mod: would you say this a normal behaviour of the process at these parameters? I have a feeling that these failures happen way too early and too often. I have looked into my savegame file and I see that all the parts have the "Age" parameter values set to quite high values. For example, a fuel tank has Age of 60467.11, and the wheel tires Age is 1345.39. Maybe here is something not right. Regards, Majo339
  2. Greetings, First of all let me congratulate you for a very nice and challenging mod. A few days ago I have started to use it an I like the idea very much, however I have some doubts regarding the failure probability calculations. Maybe you could help me or give me some hints. In the wiki of your plugin we can read that "MTBF follows an exponential decay function", then there is a reference to the wikipage of the distribution itself, where MTBF, lifetime, tau, mean lifetime, exponential time constant, 1/lambda, are used as synonyms of the same value. If so, why do you specify two values for each of the elements in the *.cfg files in the ModuleManager folder: MTBF and LifeTime? Does the "LifeTime" in the cfg file mean something different than "LifeTime" on the wikipage of the plugin/exp distribution? Obviously they play different roles in your module (especially when you set the LifeTime value to a very low value for the engines), but I seem to be somewhat confused by the notation. The second question is more directly bound to the gameplay. I have performed some small scale scientific mission to the moon. The ship includes 14 tanks (where 9 of them are dropped before reaching the kerbal orbit), and also four wheels on the final stage which is my scientific rover/hopper. The thing is: when I launched the mission for the first time, after several minutes of flight (yet before the orbit) one of the tanks got broken. When I restarted the game and tried it again, I made it to the mun, but after several kerbal days (maybe 20 hours) of exploration, one of the wheel tire got broken. This is where I thought to myself: what the hell, am I so unlucky or are the brake-down probabilities too high? Then I went into some literature reading, and well, there I am with my post. I even went to some reference calculation website http://reliabilityanalyticstoolkit.appspot.com/exponential_distribution where I tried to put the MTBF of a wheel tire, of a tank, and estimate the failure probabilities of these two cases. As I expected, the probability of them (with the MTBF taken from the cfg files) during the first several tens of hours of the mission, is practically an absolute zero. So why did it happen to me? Apparently I have a problem with understanding the LifeTime value from your cfg files. If you could put me some light on that, I would be grateful. Best regards, Majo339 PS. I did not travel at high temperatures, I keep the speed within the atmosphere at <=250m/s.
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