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What do you think about Fermi paradox? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox Here I want to be translator from Russian to English Alex Semenov's research paper about Fermi paradox. Here is original text: http://alex-semenov.livejournal.com/10688.html (warning! terrible Russian letters) (sorry for my bad English) epigraph: When partners can't agree Their dealings come to naught And trouble is their labor's only fruit. ____________ Once Crawfish, Swan and Pike Set out to pull a loaded cart, And all together settled in the traces; They pulled with all their might, but still the cart refused to budge! The load it seemed was not too much for them: Yet Crawfish scrambled backwards, Swan strained up skywards, Pike pulled toward the sea. Who's guilty here and who is right is not for us to say- But anyway the cart's still there today. Krylov. Author of translation unknown. Fermi Paradox Crawfish, Swan and Pike Or horoscope for members to next SETI conferencion So, Fermi Paradox, or Paradox of silent Universe. If alien's intelligence exist not only here, and exist on planets nearly other suns, why we can't see they? Probably, at first, this paradox discovered by Enrico Fermi in 1950 in lunch-time with his colleges, when they watched newspaper's caricature to the Aliens. It starts from jokes. However, it led to formulation this paradox. It's normal for physics - starts from joke, and end with research! Really, where is they? Remarkably, but have a time to thinking, you understand: each person, who understand this bug of world outlook, forced to patch it by one of three main ways. And your choice depend of what you prefer to sacrifice (to exclude, if in case use sacrifice in English to much expressively - Polnoch) to fix your world outlook. Three "facts" are connected in loop-paradox, like a Penrose triangle Fact1. The life is born all over the place and in all time, and achieve a highly developed mind's stage. (Here P1 = 1, true) Fact2. All of minds produce the Impact Wave of Penetration, and fill Galaxy, and in next step, Universe. (here P2 = 1) Fact3. The Galaxy, Sol System, and Universe around us empty. Nothing around! (Here P3 = 1) P1 * P2 * P3 = 1*1*1 = 1 But it is impossible! As we see, it contradict each other! And we need to get zero, false, not logical true! However, not each of three "facts" not a real fact, and not a established truth. It just conclusions, like a truth, and we can drop each of "facts". If you drop first "fact", we called you Swan, and our equation is: P1*P2*P3=0*1*1 = 0 If you drop second "fact", we called you Pike, and our equation is: P1*P2*P3=1*0*1 = 0 If you drop third "fact", we called you Crawfish, and our equation is: P1*P2*P3=1*1*0 = 0 Other choices doesn't exist (in original text - Polnoch. Probably he's right) Of course, here can be intermediate options, but, in fact, all manifold of rational options reducing to this 3 corner options, because you can get it by minimum stress, sacrifice only one "fact". Let's go to expand about all of options. Let's start from me (from author - Polnoch). I'm typical specimen of this "animals": SWAN (here author write not-censored joke - Polnoch) I prefer to solve Fermi paradox by Swan choice. Of course, I can't believe about our Universe hasn't any aliens(fact3), but I must to agreed with it. for me, probability of this very low. May be, P3 =0.99...9 ~ 1 . Next, idea about Wave of mind's penetration for me obviously. We'll start the Wave, or die out. No other choices for humanity. And, this conclusions must works for aliens, but were is it? I don't want to discuss here about necessity of The Wave, but i want to convince you about I'm believe in it(author - Polnoch)! If any of alien mind appear in our Galaxy before us, then the Wave must cover us! To millions years before! Observe the Fermi Paradox, the Swan must to sacrifice fact of aliens exist. The Swan must to suppose about the life is really rare in Galaxy. And the Mind is unique. May be we are alone in Galaxy, at least, first intelligent. If it's required, I suppose our unique state in Universe. By this reasons I interesting ideas of Create Filter. The density of Mind in our Universe must be very low, because the Wave don't cover us. May be, aliens exist at least 100000 light years or more... The Swan, to save world outlook, can drop "fact" of aliens worlds exist. The subjective proximity of "dead Universe" is P1 = 0.00...01 ~ 0 . In this case solution of Fermi Paradox is: P1*P2*P3= 0.00...01*0.99...9*0.99...9 ~ 0*1*1 ~ 0 PIKE On the one hand, the pike, like a swan, can drop a "fact" of Alien's marcs in Sol system, and in Galaxy too(I think, Alex Semenov mean in interstallar space here - Polnoch) For the pike P3~1. But by second hand, the pike can't drop idea about aliens Worlds. for it P1 ~ 1. The pike want to sacrifice "fact" 2. In any case Pike's answers about excluding interstellar travelling. May be one or two interstellar flights per each civilization history, or no one! The Wave of Mind is idiot idea, and doesn't exist! At first, interstellar flight is very hard and too much expansive! For high-tech civilizations too! At second, if it's possible, why high tech civilization to create the Wave? It's extensionally growth! It doesn't need a empty big spaces and resources! May be we trying to think about High Tech Mind by our history? May be they are prefer high tech growth? And sitting in one place during billions of years? For the Pike P2~ 0 And Fermi paradox solution: P1*P2*P3 ~ 1*0*1 ~ 0 I have opinion, about all of SETI-interesting persons are pikes! In this cases, high tech civilizations must to have chat with other civilizations to extend knowledge. All civilizations requires a help! And, we need to find similar signals, to connect to the Greate Ring (here Alex means "The greate ring" Novell of Inan Efremov- Polnoch) In this case, if anybody can't visit us, and anybody can't invade us, we can start METI transmitions. The World is very large, and brutal to the Mind, and radio(laser - Polnoch) communications is just only one way to get invaluable information. Fantastic - we can receive and transmit more-thousand's years information! In this case, at once, we can visit another civilization by digital copy of our brain. (Polnoch - I think, Pikes doesn't exclude dangerous of METI) CRAWFISH On the one hand, The Crawfish, like pike, can't drop a "fact" of existing Alien's worlds, P1~ 1. On the second hand, Crawfish dislike to be at home during billions of years, and like Swan, it wants to be the hitchhiker to the whole Galaxy! It permit s interstellar flights, like Swan, but millions and millions light years with non-mind planets with primitive life (planets with mold in original text - polnoch) the Crawfish dislike! And, observing the Fermi Paradox, the Crawfish has a conclusion about the Wave of Mind covered us to many years before! And we locate in cultural place, other civilisation(s) alive in around place, including our Sol system. P3 ~ 0: P1*P2*P3 ~ 1*1*0 ~ 0 But why we can't observe Aliens? Here the crawfish must to back: they are here, but don't want to tell us! They are invisible! Asking crawfish, we can get information, about he believe to the UFO, Ancient astronaut hypothesis, and in some of pseudoscience/pseudophysics ideas (it's Alex Semenov! I know some of Crawfishs with science-like world view! Polnoch). however, advanced crawfish believe to the E. Braswell probe. Theory about museum-preserve for the humanity(about aliens discover us, and safeguard us like museum, lab, zoo) better to the crawfish then died universe of Swan. Listen to yourself. What better for you? "Zoo" or "Died universe"? What is your choice? If zoo, you are Crawfish. Crawfish, usually stupid(in original text here is Russian idiom), Crawfish believe - at once we can accepted in family of high-tech civilizations, if we can't be more clever, more friendly, more humanity... Crawfish's opinion of the SETI problem (in text. Typo? I think, Alex mean Fermi's problem - Polnoch) look like a view of God believer. ==== Below locate conclusion, but I don't translate it because I get tired. You can skip it (no new ideas) or to use google translate. Sorry for errors. Difficult to translate a large tech text. It's my first experience. Here must be mistakes.