Progress in trouble

[tater]

I hope it crashes in 'Merica, we need some Progress.

LOL, win.

[Commissioner Tadpole]

This is an uncrewed supply vessel.

It's a Progress, not a Soyuz. No one on board.

Ninja'dd

Derp. My news system didn't say anything about the vessel being manned or not. Sorry.

[Frida Space]

Progress should reenter tonight (or late evening in America). The latest reentry predictions:

03:36 ± 2 hours (USSTRATCOM)

00:13-03:51 (Roscosmos)

04:08 ± 4 hours (Satflare)

01:41 ± 4 hours (Spaceflight101)

07:40 ± 5 hours (Aerospace Corp)

02:36-03:51 (NORAD)

All time are CEST, which is currently UTC/GMT+2 hours, PDT+9 hours and EDT+6 hours.

[tater]

Looks like pacific to Texas is a possibility (maybe the Squad guys can see it, on pass in the time range is right down the west coats of Mexico (look west, guys ).

[Kryten]

The Roscosmos result is probably a lot more accurate; they have returns from radio tracking as they're still in contact, the rest just have radar.

[PakledHostage]

You can track its position in real time on this site: http://www.satflare.com/track.asp?q=40619#TOP

I am not sure where they get their tracking data from though...

[Frida Space]

The Roscosmos result is probably a lot more accurate; they have returns from radio tracking as they're still in contact, the rest just have radar.

If we consider Roscosmos' prediction, we can already exclude North America, Europe and Australia from the potential impact sites.

[AngelLestat]

Apo and Per now are almost equal... we know what it means.

Few hours more.

Today I saw it when pass over my city, but I dint film it.

This guy did:

------------------------------------------

It seems that it fell and desintegrate over the pacific ocean... Somebody can confirm this?

Edited May 8, 2015 by AngelLestat

[Frida Space]

USSTRATCOM issued a precise Re-Entry Confirmation for Progress M-27M showing orbital decay (80km passage) to have taken place at 02:20 UTC +/-1 Minute. This puts the location of re-entry 830 Kilometers off the Chilean Coast (Center of the window), but given the speed the object was traveling, the decay location may be anywhere from 350 to 1,300 Kilometers off the South American Coast.

[Scotius]

Yeah. TASS and Roscosmos both confirmed re-entry. Though they can't confirm if any fragments survived it and fell on Earth. RIP Progress.

[Streetwind]

Good to hear that there was no damage caused in populated areas.

[Frida Space]

Following Progress' failure, NASA/ESA/Roscosmos have announced that the reentry of Expedition 42/43 (Virts Skaplerov Cristoforetti) has been postponed to probably June. An official announcement will be made next week.

[asmi]

Yeah. TASS and Roscosmos both confirmed re-entry. Though they can't confirm if any fragments survived it and fell on Earth. RIP Progress.

There were several Progress missions which were intentionally deorbited over land (they had return capsules), and I haven't ever seen any record of any pieces making it to the ground (except for capsules obviously).

[Dodgey]

Nothing in Australia? Shame I was hoping to be able to fine Russia.

[1greywind]

Today Roscosmos officials gave the press-conference where they repored preliminary results of ongoing investigations:

ÃÂð 526,716 ÑÂõúуýôõ ÿþûõтð ÿрþø÷þшûþ ýõштðтýþõ рð÷ôõûõýøõ 3-ù ÑÂтуÿõýø ààø âÓÃÅ¡, .... ôòð ÿþÑÂûõôþòðтõûьýых ÑÂþñытøÑÂ, ÑÂòÑÂ÷ðýýых Ѡрð÷óõрüõтø÷ðцøõù (òÑÂúрытøõü ÿþÑÂûõ òыúûючõýøѠüðршõòþóþ ôòøóðтõûѠ3-ù ÑÂтуÿõýø àÃÂ) ÑÂýðчðûð ñðúð þúøÑÂûøтõÃȄÂ, ð ÷ðтõü - ø ñðúð óþрючõóþ 3-ù ÑÂтуÿõýø àÃÂ.

Which means: "Not nominal separation on 526.716 second of flight. Simulation (most likely they estimated maximum energy released in diffirent kinds of catastrofic events - Progress engine exploision, Soyuz third stage turbopump exploision, etc) points to third stage oxidizer tank rupture followed by fuel tank rupture."

Final investigation report is expected on May 22.

- - - Updated - - -

And schematic of Soyuz 2.1a third stage (middle):

Fuel tank on top, oxidizer tank in middle.

Edited May 12, 2015 by 1greywind

[LordFerret]

Google translates that slightly differently, but it equates more or less to the same evaluation*... unintended 3rd stage separation followed by tank depressurization. I would be less concerned about the tank depressurization/rupture than I would the unintended 3rd stage separation. I'm getting the impression staging occurred before it was supposed to, with the 2nd stage maybe striking the 3rd stage causing the tank rupture(s).

* {In general, start-up and separation of THC «Progress M-27M" took place in normal mode until the separation of THC third stage "Soyuz 2.1a." On the second flight was 526.716 unintended separation of the third stage of the launch and the THC, resulting in the ship was in orbit with an apogee of 40 km upstream, and third stage of the launch - in an orbit with an apogee of 20 km below the calculated trajectory excretion.}

[Dkmdlb]

third stage oxidizer tank rapture followed by fuel tank rapture."

Who knew our Lord and savior Jesus Christ was such a fan of Russian hardware?

[Kryten]

I'm getting the impression staging occurred before it was supposed to, with the 2nd stage maybe striking the 3rd stage causing the tank rupture(s).

That would leave payload and third stage apogee lower than normal; it was higher. As far as we can tell third stage flight was nominal until near the end.

[K^2]

That would leave payload and third stage apogee lower than normal; it was higher. As far as we can tell third stage flight was nominal until near the end.

That's only if the engine shut down properly during staging. A lot of people in the know suggested that the engine might not have shut down immediately when staging happened. It is consistent with higher-than-expected apogee and lower-than-expected perigee.

[hugix]

Who knew our Lord and savior Jesus Christ was such a fan of Russian hardware?

On manned launches the rocket actualy gets blessed by a priest :

[1greywind]

Guys, rapture = rupture - it was a mistake.

[Kryten]

Official statement on investigation reuslt from Roscosmos;

http://www.federalspace.ru/21513/

as far as I can tell, it's saying the issue was ultimately caused by unforseen resonance (pogo?) in the interface between Progress and the 3rd stage.