Rocket Lab eyes Birdling's Flat, Canterbury, as launch site (New Zealand)

[Kryten]

Minotaur (refurbished Minuteman)?

The motors are still considered property of the US government, so it can only be used on government missions. Orbital do have a commercially available launcher in this rough class, Pegasus, but it's absurdly expensive ($20 million+).

And SpaceX wanted part of the market as well, what, they've canned Falcon-1 without replacement?

Didn't want to keep making Kestrel engines and the smaller cores for a less profitable market. They have a concept of dedicated Falcon 9 flights with various small payloads, but none are properly manifested yet.

[Streetwind]

Minotaur (refurbished Minuteman)? And SpaceX wanted part of the market as well, what, they've canned Falcon-1 without replacement?

Huh. I was under impression that the small LV market was oversaturated. Guess I was wrong, Rocket Lab may actually get customers.

It roughly went like this:

- SpaceX starts out developing Falcon 1 with big goals

- SpaceX discovers rocketry is really, really hard

- SpaceX all but burns itself out completely on getting a Falcon 1 to fly successfully, but that success in itself is unprecedented

- NASA takes notice, decides on a leap of faith, awards SpaceX one of the two CRS contracts

- SpaceX instantly drops everything else and focuses 100% on the Falcon 9 for the NASA contract

- The Falcon 9 is finished and works, SpaceX starts making money for the first time

- SpaceX decides to forge ahead in the commsat and government market they already have a vehicle for, and start on the BFR/MCT architecture instead of rebooting the smallsat launcher program

- Some former SpaceX people decide to re-try the smallsat angle, they're currently developing the aerospike-driven Firefly rocket

Also notice that the Falcon 1 is a vehicle from 10 years ago. The smallsat market as such wasn't really that big back then, but there was at least the potential to use it as a springboard for something bigger (which worked out just fine for SpaceX). However, in the last 2-3 years, that market has really been gaining massive traction. Look at Planet Labs, look at Planetary Resources, look at student science programs and the cubesat movement in general.

There's a weird sort of "synergy of expectation" going on right now where there's theoretically a lot of people willing to get into smallsats if only they can get a cheap launch, and a lot of people willing to get into smallsat launchers if only they can get payloads. Each side sees the other side and says "Hey look, this may actually happen, let's go for it!". So even though there's no real dedicated smallsat market just yet and no real dedicated commercial smallsat launch industry just yet, they are kind of whipping each other up into a frenzy, and both sides are in the process of actually doing their thing. The next year or two will probably decide the fate of this market, and it's currently looking decent.

Planet Labs are the first. They've got sats in orbit right now that do business, and they're building more and launching more. At the moment they're still riding as secondaries on big rockets, but I'd assume they would just as happily take the opportunity to fill up a dedicated smallsat launcher with their Doves.