ISS Ownership Up for Grabs?

[Nibb31]

Solar panels can last longer than 20 years, but their production decreases. The estimates were around 1% per year, but it is now closer 2%. They suffer quite a lot from MMOD. Assuming that the degradation is linear, by 2024, the oldest panels will be producing 70 and 80% of their initial rating, which means that some systems, mostly experiments, will have to be powered down.

Sure, you can replace systems and add more panels, but how much are you willing to spend to maintain old equipment? It's just like for an old car. At one point it becomes more economical to scrap it and buy a new one rather than to keep on repairing it.

As I said, even if a commercial acquirer got handed over the ISS for free, the maintenance costs are $2 billion per year, and they will only increase as the station gets older, so you would need to have a heck of a business model to keep it running.

Oh, and Russia isn't going anywhere with their station. Roskosmos' budget just got the axe, so there will be no new modules, no PPTS, and no new rockets for them...

[fredinno]

2 hours ago, Nibb31 said:

Solar panels can last longer than 20 years, but their production decreases. The estimates were around 1% per year, but it is now closer 2%. They suffer quite a lot from MMOD. Assuming that the degradation is linear, by 2024, the oldest panels will be producing 70 and 80% of their initial rating, which means that some systems, mostly experiments, will have to be powered down.

Sure, you can replace systems and add more panels, but how much are you willing to spend to maintain old equipment? It's just like for an old car. At one point it becomes more economical to scrap it and buy a new one rather than to keep on repairing it.

As I said, even if a commercial acquirer got handed over the ISS for free, the maintenance costs are $2 billion per year, and they will only increase as the station gets older, so you would need to have a heck of a business model to keep it running.

Oh, and Russia isn't going anywhere with their station. Roskosmos' budget just got the axe, so there will be no new modules, no PPTS, and no new rockets for them...

It will most likely not be used for scientific experiments, and scientific experiments are energy-intnesitive.