Is this a resonable VentureStar-Powered Alternate History?

[fredinno]

Made as a post from here http://forum.kerbalspaceprogram.com/index.php?/topic/126962-what-if-venturestar-had-succeeded/

I am just wondering if this would be a reasonable alternate history, assuming everything went well with VentureStar's development?

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I didn't really come with a scedule for VentureStar development and first flight on the last post, but I'm going to go with an optimistic schedule- X-33 would be completed by 2004, and VentureStar, by 2011- a development of somewhat more than a decade- similar to Shuttle development schedule (which was also about, if not less, innovative at the time of its development). However, ISS construction means that NASA would need to juggle both at the same time- most likely this would mean all flagship missions (including JWST) and New Frontiers Missions would be put on hold, with all other robotic planetary exploration programs cancelled to make the scedule. They might also have to make some deal with the DOD for extra money, (for example, in exchage for free future flights).

 

Concequently, the Shuttle would not retire until the time of retirement in our timeline. SLC-1W, LC-39B and LC-37A would be held aside for VentureStar, while LC-39A and SLC-1E would begin modifications after Shuttle retirement, or just be left empty for a possible future expansion of operations once VentureStar needs those payloads (possibly following a nationalisation of the launch industry, with Vulcan also being made as a backup in case things don't go as planned).

 

Despite its goals, I really doubt NASA would be able to meet them- sure, the Shuttle would have made it easier to make VentureStar cheaper, (like using fewer large heat sheild tiles, rather than several smaller ones) but even then, reusability isn't really as easy as it seems. I would be happy if the thing broke Falcon 9 prices, especially since NASA is less efficient than SpaceX in terms of operations due to political pork. 

 

After 2011, there would be a gap in crewed launch capability, that is, until the X-38 CRV is completed a few years after VentureStar (or some other vehicle), and the thing is modified for Atlas V (and later, Vulcan), as VentureStar is unmanned, and is less safe for a crew to abort from a cargo bay. Robotic missions would be resumed, DOD would replace Delta IV with VentureStar, a slightly smaller modernised Interim Upper Stage would be built to launch on the rocket for GEO payloads. Later, a Xenon-based reusable space Tug would be made, refuled by VentureStar (which can only carry 20T, compared to the Shuttle's 27T to LEO), replacing the IUS (except for deep space payloads, where IUS would act as an additional boost stage. This is because any other fuel would be inhertly risky to put on an expensive vehicle's cargo bay, especially during an abort (look up Shuttle-Centaur) due to flammability. LC-39A would also be modified to support the Ion tugs, along with LC-1E. All this would take to 2018.

 

By this time, Shuttle-C is pretty much dead in the water, along with other Shuttle-derived vehicles, due to the time since Shuttle infrastructure was destroyed. Instead, Vulcan-ACES-Heavy, carrying Fifty Tons to LEO, (Vulcan, which launches from SLC-3E, LC-40 (no SpaceX in this timeline), and LC-41, would be used.) This would launch the Orion CV and the fuel needed to get to Low Lunar Orbit in 2 launches. The landers for moon missions, and/or Lunar Space Station components would be launched from the Xenon-Tug (due to Van Allen radiation concerns). This would first take place by 2026, assuming it is an international endevour, with JAXA, CSA, ESA and ISRO also on board (with possible commercial contributions).

 

Of course, another concern by 2018 would be replacing the ISS. An 10-man Space Station Freedom contracted out to commercial partners to construct from inflatables (with possible contributions from international partners to increase its size) would be made from VentureStar launches- in my timeline, this would also take to 2024 for the first construction flights, and completion by 2027. This would make sure the manned US presence in space is not comprimised, while increasing its capability. Hopefully, it would also be a platform for Commercial Satellite repairs and Space Tourism.

Just wanted to ask.

[PB666]

1 hour ago, fredinno said:

Made as a post from here http://forum.kerbalspaceprogram.com/index.php?/topic/126962-what-if-venturestar-had-succeeded/

I am just wondering if this would be a reasonable alternate history, assuming everything went well with VentureStar's development?

Just wanted to ask.

I really am getting tired of all the revisionist thinking..... the shuttle was bad (ignoring its successes) expensive, forgetting we spend a gdp 10th relative than on apollo, and a whole lot of stuuf didnt get done because of the shuttle. 

Its all smoke and mirrors. Meaningless diatribe by people who want to live in a past they wished existed instead of the present reality.  The cuurent populace does not really care about science, they care about maximizing thier incomes and paying as little tax as possible, they aren't intelligent enough to understand multiplyer effects or stimili for technological growth, the basic backbone now for all modern society. So what happened is that budgets were cut basically to survival levels and every 4 to 8 years the priorities shift so that some programs get cut.

Sure people want the stuff science offers but only if its a one step deal, you put money in and 5 years later you get a result. Its not something they can rationalize that a program, for instance, takes 50years to measure the size of our solar system at its bowshock. They tend to think of science as a product rather than a process.

What i am trying to say is can we grow up here and stop finger pointing at programs and missions and just accept the fact that the realtime resource pipeline runs at a trickle, moreso now that russia has slashed its budget (obviously shooting themselves in the foot). Its a real fantasy world to mention in different threads all the proposals that are dead and blame the shuttle for all of these when 800 lb gorilla sets in the house of representaives, and has a temper tantrum everytime there is a continuing resolution.  

If you think these programs are so great, find 100 billionaires and get them to give money to support the programs. If you cant find people who support these things enough to  put thier money out there, then thats the answer.  Just think 70 years ago a junky half-crafted off-road vehicle from parts of three auto companies eventually becomes a nameplate still on the road today. Hummer, where did it go?

The public they can digest small simple packages, thats were the private companies are. If you want big shuttle like programs the house is going to choke on the public backlash for the spending (shuttle or no shuttle) no matter how many times it multiplies through the economy. Think of it like this, from 1962-69 put man on moon, three different types of rockets, not considering the stages in the moon mission itself. It shouldn't even take a year to have a heavy, manned capable launch platform, if the money is there. The US used to absorb all the cost, now we are spliiting cost with other countries, we have to negotiate and beaurocratize every process now) The situation is actually worse than it looks because Europes economics are not too much better than russia, 

[Dispatcher]

Im actually more interested in development of another kind of VentureStar (or Venture Star):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tNMV-k8HOE

However, the Lockheed would be perhaps a nice intermediate step (towards the development of space infrastructure).

[fredinno]

15 minutes ago, Dispatcher said:

Im actually more interested in development of another kind of VentureStar (or Venture Star):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tNMV-k8HOE

However, the Lockheed would be perhaps a nice intermediate step (towards the development of space infrastructure).

Lol, that VenturStar will.. Not happen soon.

[PB666]

On December 13, 2015 at 10:35:25 AM, fredinno said:

Lol, that VenturStar will.. Not happen soon.

Sprecke deutsch nicht, but that ship has about 10000 times the mass of the heaviest thing we have put in deep space. Things always seem more real when there is a falsetto background singer. 

Ide settle for this modest sized ship

https://www.google.com/search?q=Heart+of+gold+spaceship&rlz=1C9BKJA_enUS620US621&hl=en-US&prmd=ivsn&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjP4a2-t9zJAhVQ1mMKHb2pCZcQ_AUIBygB#imgrc=mVg1X7lNFLMA-M%3A